Wellesley Public Schools: Fiscal Year 2026 Budget
o Projected Enrollment Decline (2008 – 2023):
Elementary: Loss of 569 students or -22.93% Middle: Loss of 48 students or -4.53% High: Increase of 115 students or 9.14 Districtwide: Loss of 502 students or -10.46%
Future Think – July 2016
o Actual Date: 2015-2016 (4,975 Total Students) o Projection End Date: school year 2025-2026 (4,466 Total Students) o Projected Enrollment Decline (2015 – 2026): Elementary: Loss of 209 students or -9.06%
Middle: Loss of 143 students or -12.4% High: Loss of 107 students or -7.06% Districtwide: Loss of 459 students or -9.23%
Future Think – January 2020
o Actual Date: 2019-2020 (4,758 Total Students) o Projection End Date: school year 2029-2030 (4,189 Total Students) o Projected Enrollment Decline (2019-2030):
Elementary: Loss of 183 students or -8.74% Middle: Loss of 255 students or -21.89% High: Loss of 131 students or -8.74% Districtwide: Loss of 569 students or -11.96%
Future Think – September 2022
o Actual Date: 2022-2023 (4,136 Total Students) o Projection End Date: school year 2032-2033 (3,857 Total Students) o Projected Enrollment Decline (2032-2033): Elementary: Gain of 116 students or 6.64%
Middle: Loss of 27 students or 2.91% High: Loss of 368 students or 25.2% Districtwide: Loss of 279 students or 6.74%
Key Factors of All Projections o Birth Rates
Decline in the Wellesley Birth Rate (20.6% decline between 2007 and 2021) Wellesley birth rate was 252 births in 2007 versus 200 in 2021 Massachusetts birth rate declined (10.98% decline between 2007 and 2021) Massachusetts birth rate was 78,724 in 2007 versus 70,083 in 2021 Overall population likely to increase in Town (1.3% over 5 years) School age population projected to decline (-3.0% for 0–18-year-old)
o Out Migration (Future Think 2022 Study)
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