the Ogopogo sees its shadow? The sales slump in the Central Okanagan’s housing market extended into January, with last month marking its eighth consecutive monthly decline in transaction counts. Given the all powerful but as-of-late unchanging macroeconomic environment, don’t expect significant market shifts in the near-term.
inventory (MOI) measure sitting at 11.1. (Note that an MOI of less than 5 reflects conditions more favourable to sellers; 5-8 MOI reflects balanced conditions; and an MOI over 8 reflects a buyers’ market.) At a macroeconomic level not much has changed of late, so until inflation is back within the Bank of Canada’s target range and the Bank begins loosening its restrictive policy rate, it’s unlikely that sales counts in this region will expand back to their historical norms. And as we speed towards springtime—typically the busiest time of the year for the housing market of the Central Okanagan—there’s been little indication that the market is gaining much steam. As it relates to residential real estate activity, then, we should expect at least another 6 weeks of winter.
With the first month of 2024 in the books and the end of winter in sight, it’s natural to look ahead towards the warmer weather and longer days of spring—and with it a busier real estate market. But in contrast to the likes of Wiarton Willie, Shubenacadie Sam, and Fred la mormotte who all failed to see their shadow this groundhog day and thus predicted an early spring, the sunny Okanagan seems to be on a different path when it comes to real estate market. Sales counts once again declined last month, albeit marginally, to 161 MLS transactions in the Central Okanagan—down from 162 in December and the eight consecutive monthly drop. While this month-over-month attrition was less than the typical December- to-January decrease (of 9%), and the total was actually 4% higher than last year’s subdued total, last month’s sales were still 35% below the past-decade average for the month.
On the new listings front, January’s total was 532, which may have been an 86% increase from December but was less than the typical December-to-January growth of 91%. Last month’s new listings count was also 1.5% less than the past 10-year January average and 8% lower than the same month last year. There were 1,794 MLS homes available for sale in the Central Okanagan at the end of January, which was a decline of 3% from December—contrasting with the typical seasonal increase of 6%. That said, January’s active listings total was still 18% higher than one year ago and 16% above the past-decade January average. With little change in sales counts and listings, the region’s supply and demand dynamics yielded a fifth consecutive month of conditions that favoured buyers in January, with the overall months-of-
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