sales & new supply gain steam , revert ( almost ) to the mean Buyers and sellers both ramped up their participation in Metro Vancouver’s housing market in May, with sales and new listings reaching levels not seen in at least a year.
to go, however, for it remains 14% below last year’s level, is 26% below the past-10 year May average, and is the third-lowest May total ever (going back to 1990). To put a finer point on the inventory story, it is worth acknowledging that our region has experienced consistent and significant growth in people and housing over the past 30-plus years. With this in mind, and if we adjust current inventory for the size of the region’s population, the 4.56 listings per 1,000 residents last month was, in fact, the lowest on record. With the Bank of Canada raising its policy rate by 25 basis points (to 4.75%) on June 7th (accompanied by a surge in bond yields), and some economic turbulence in the form of a deteriorating labour market likely to be realized in the near- term, an element of uncertainty may be re-emerging for both buyers and sellers. In the months ahead, don’t be surprised if market conditions begin to favour buyers as we enter what is the typically less active summer season.
As we’ve previously noted in this space, home sales have been increasing in the Vancouver Region of late, with both March and April tallying more than 4,000 MLS sales following a historical dearth of activity over the preceding 8 months. Notably, the recent upward trend in sales not only continued into May, but accelerated, with the total number of transactions last month surpassing the 5,000-mark for the first time since March 2022. In the end, May’s sales count totalled 5,038, which was 20% higher than April’s versus a more typical April-to-May bump of 4%. And while May’s total was also 19% higher than one year ago, it was still 2% lower than the past 10-year average. This latter point is important context for the current sales pattern: despite sales counts having increased for 4 consecutive months, activity is only now just below
what we would consider typical for this time of year. In addition to more buyers participating in the housing market last month, more would-be sellers got in the game in May, too. To this point, there were 9,101 new listings posted in the Vancouver Region in May—a 39% increase over April, and the most in any month going back to May of last year. Last month’s new listings were, however, still 9% lower than in May 2022, sitting at 0.5% above the long-run May average. With sales counts rising, this increase in new listings activity was the necessary condition for inventory to be able to expand. On this front, there were 13,268 homes available for purchase at the end of May, which was an 11% increase from April (much more than the typical April-to-May rise of 6%). Inventory still has a long way
Copyright © 2023 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of June 5, 2023. All data from Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley & Rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 3
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