The Lower Middle Market: A Hidden Gem for M&A Central banks worldwide have continued a gradual reduction in policy rates, which is expected to greatly benefit M&A activity through 2025. The lower-interest-rate environment benefits sellers by making deals more affordable and attractive. Lower borrowing costs translate to reduced debt, quicker deal timelines, and less complex financing structures. Sellers may be able to negotiate for larger upfront payments and fewer deferred payments or earn-outs, as lower borrowing costs reduce the need for such complex arrangements.
The recent interest rate cuts are encouraging for buyers and sellers alike, especially as capital deployment becomes a priority at year end. The [US] Fed didn’t commit to a timeline for the next cut, possibly a signal of caution with policy shifts from the new US administration. Inflation is still “somewhat elevated," so they are walking a tightrope. Powell’s challenge? Balancing a cooling labor market with inflation control. For business owners, this could mean opportunity in the months ahead.
Thomas Smale CEO of FE International
The underlying technology and platform primarily drive lower middle market deals. Lower middle market deals valued under $100 million often require less financing, making them less sensitive to interest rate fluctuations, but lower rates can lead to even more favorable terms and increased deal activity. Importantly, overall economic optimism and a pro-business environment can lead to increased deal activity, especially in the lower middle market. For instance, the US President- elect has expressed plans to deregulate the financial industry and emphasizes technology solutions for financial transactions, which portends well for increased deal activity.
Interest Rate (%)
Rate cuts by Central banks
Quote from Randal The true driver of success in lower middle market technology deals lies in the underlying technology. In sectors like FinTech, where innovation is paramount, the ability to acquire and deploy transformative technologies will ultimately determine deal outcomes. Additionally, a pro-business environment can, on the margin, prompt more transactions to be considered and pursued.
4.38% 3.40% 4.75%
1.00%
Randal Stephenson Head of Investment Banking of FE International & CEO of FE Capital Markets LLC 1
Jan-22
Sep-22
Jun-23
Mar-24
Dec-24
US (Fed)
Euro Area (ECB)
United Kingdom (BoE)
Switzerland (SNB policy rate)
Source: Interest rates as per central bank data of respective regions. Note: ECB = European Central Bank, BoE = Bank of England, SNB = Swiss National Bank. (1) Securities transactions offered and managed through FE Capital Markets LLC, Member FINRA/SIPC (FINRA CRD# 314943).
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