Declining Cardboard Demand In U.S. Casts Shadow On Holiday Sales According to a report on Packaging Gateway , ship- ments of corrugated packaging in the United States have dropped to their lowest levels in a decade, prompting speculation that the upcoming holiday season could prove weaker than expected for retailers. Recent figures from the Fibre Box Association (FBA) show that U.S. corrugated box shipments in the third quarter of 2025 fell to their lowest third-quarter reading since 2015. Typically, box shipments climb during the third quar- ter as retailers ramp up for holiday displays and stock. Yet this year several packaging firms have reported that orders during October were flat or below normal levels. The decline in shipments is widely viewed as a de- mand indicator for consumer goods and retail sup- ply-chains. Less demand for boxes may point towards muted retailer expectations or consumer spending. Industry commentary suggests multiple headwinds are contributing to the fall in corrugated box shipments. These include weak consumer sentiment, a sluggish housing market and trade policy uncertainty. Production data shows that containerboard output (the primary raw material for corrugated boxes) fell 3.1 percent YOY in Q3 and that capacity cuts across North
America are proceeding rapidly. Analysts note that per-cap- ita box use is now more than 20 percent below its 1999 peak, illustrating structural demand changes in the market. For the packaging industry, the slump in box shipments is a warning signal. Reduced orders mean lower utilization and higher pressure on margins and capacity planning. Some mills and converting plants have already announced closures or cutbacks in response to sustained weak de- mand. From a retail perspective, the weakness in corrugated box volumes suggests that the forthcoming holiday shop- ping season may not deliver the same volume of goods movement seen in prior years. Because many seasonal dis- plays and shipping boxes are ordered late during Q3 into October, the low volumes raise questions about the scale of inventory build-up and promotional programming. For global packaging professionals, the current trend underscores growing emphasis on right-sizing, alternative fulfilment formats and more efficient packaging design to adapt to shifting demand. The fall-off in traditional corrugat- ed box shipments may accelerate innovations in sustain- able and flexible packaging options. Ultimately, the marked decline in US corrugated box shipments signals caution not only within the packaging sector but across retail supply-chains. It suggests that holiday demand may be under pressure, prompting a close watch on November and December vol- umes in the weeks ahead.
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November 24, 2025
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