The Next Next Common Sense
This acceleration extends beyond mere speed—it reflects a shift from linear to exponential patterns of change. Linear systems change by add- ing; exponential systems change by multiplying. When Facebook (now Meta) operated on Zuckerberg's famous motto "Move fast and break things," they weren't just advocating speed—they were acknowledging the exponential nature of network effects, where value increases with the square of the number of participants. The implications for organizations are profound. Planning hori- zons have compressed. The half-life of skills has shortened dramatically. Competitive advantages that once lasted decades now evaporate in quar- ters. As Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella observed, "In the past, we were confident of our future for at least a decade. Today, we can't be confident for more than 3-5 years without continuous reinvention." CI NOTMHP LE IDCIAGTI TE DA LV AS .GCEO M P L E X
The distinction between complicated and complex has evolved in the digital age. Let me offer an updated framework:
Complicated Systems (Then and Now):
• Can be reduced to their component parts • Follow predictable rules of cause and effect
• Can be optimized through specialized expertise • Scale through standardization and replication • Example: A conventional manufacturing assembly line
Complex Systems (Then):
• Characterized by interdependence between parts • Demonstrate emergent behaviors not predictable from components • Self-organize in response to environmental changes
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