The Next Next Common Sense
that considered hardware, software, user experience, and developer eco- systems as an interwoven whole. The result was the iPhone—not just a better phone but a fundamentally different approach that recognized the complex, adaptive nature of the mobile ecosystem. Nokia's failure wasn't due to lack of technology or talent; they actu- ally had developed touchscreen interfaces and many iPhone-like features before Apple. Their failure stemmed from treating a complex challenge as merely complicated—attempting to control and optimize components rather than nurturing the conditions for coherent innovation across an interconnected system. Similar patterns have played out across industries—from Kodak's failure to adapt to digital photography despite inventing it (treating mar- ket evolution as a complicated technical challenge rather than a complex adaptive system) to Blockbuster's collapse against Netflix (focusing on optimizing store operations rather than recognizing the complex ecosys- tem of home entertainment). These cases highlight a critical truth: the cost of mistaking complex systems for merely complicated ones isn't just suboptimal performance— it can be existential. Organizations that apply complicated-system ap- proaches to complex challenges face increasing misalignment with reality until they either transform their approach or become obsolete. THRIVING IN THE NEW COMPLEXITY Not all organizations have floundered in this new landscape. Some have embraced complexity as a source of advantage. Let me share three brief cases that illustrate different approaches to thriving in complexity:
Stripe: Simplifying Complexity for Others
When Patrick and John Collison founded Stripe in 2010, online payments were complicated, requiring merchants to navigate a laby- rinth of banking relationships, compliance requirements, and technical
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