The Next Next Common Sense
○ Weighted impact score (impact × probability × recov- ery time) 2. Determine efficiency penalties : Calculate the ongoing cost of resilience investments:
○ Additional operating expenses ○ Reduced utilization percentages ○ Increased complexity costs
3. Compute resilience premium ratios : Divide potential disrup- tion impact by efficiency penalty to prioritize where resilience investments deliver highest return. 4. Set threshold values : Establish minimum resilience premium ratios required for investment approval. Manufacturing company 3M uses this model to guide inventory pol- icy decisions. For critical healthcare products, the calculated resilience premium often exceeds 10x (meaning the weighted potential disruption cost is ten times the efficiency penalty), justifying significant safety stock investments. For stable consumer products, where premiums may be be- low 2x, lean inventory approaches prevail. This data-driven approach re- places intuitive judgments with systematic analysis.
Nested Capability Design
This architectural approach creates efficient systems with embedded resilience capabilities that can be activated when needed:
1. Design core-shell capabilities : Structure systems with:
○ Efficient core operations optimized for normal conditions ○ Surrounding “shell” capabilities that can be activated during disruption ○ Clear interfaces between core and shell components
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