The Next Next Common Sense Preparing for Unknown Complexities The crisis simulation exercise had been deliberately designed to test an organization’s ability to respond to unexpected disruptions. Teams were presented with a scenario involving a global cybersecurity breach com- bined with extreme weather events in key operating regions—a complex, multi-faceted crisis that didn’t fit neatly into existing response protocols. “The point isn’t to prepare for this specific scenario,” explained the crisis management leader. “It’s to develop the capabilities we need to re- spond effectively to whatever disruptions emerge.” Perhaps the greatest complexity frontier is the unknown itself. Organizations face challenges that we cannot yet fully anticipate, from emerging technologies to geopolitical shifts to natural disruptions. Preparing for unknown complexities requires developing fundamental capabilities for sensing, adapting, and learning: Sensing Networks: Organizations need distributed systems for detecting weak signals of change before they become disruptive forces. These networks must span organizational boundaries and incorporate diverse perspectives. Scenario Planning: Rather than attempting to predict a single fu- ture, organizations can prepare for multiple potential scenarios. This ap- proach builds adaptive capacity and resilience for various conditions. Experimentation Culture: Organizations that conduct small-scale experiments can learn and adapt continuously, reducing vulnerability to major disruptions. Redundancy and Slack: Complex systems benefit from redundancy and slack resources that provide buffering capacity during disruptions. Excessive optimization for efficiency often reduces this adaptive capacity. Distributed Intelligence: Organizations with intelligence distrib- uted throughout their structure rather than concentrated at the top can respond more effectively to emerging complexities.
413
Made with FlippingBook. PDF to flipbook with ease