The Next Next Common Sense
“The unknown complexities are perhaps the most challenging fron- tier,” reflects a strategy executive. “We can map climate scenarios, de- mographic trends, and technological developments with some degree of confidence. But the truly unexpected disruptions—the ones that emerge from interactions we haven’t anticipated—those require a different kind of preparedness.” Organizations that develop this adaptive capacity aren’t just more resilient during crises; they’re also better positioned to identify opportu- nities in emerging complexities. The same capabilities that enable effec- tive crisis response—sensing weak signals, integrating diverse perspec- tives, experimenting rapidly, and maintaining coherence through shared purpose—also drive innovation and strategic adaptation during normal operations. NL ea av di geartsihnigp Cf oorma pCl eoxmi t py l Fe xr oWn toirelrds : The complexity frontiers we’ve explored—augmented intelligence, climate adaptation, demographic transformation, digital-physical inte- gration, ecosystem business models, and unknown complexities—aren’t separate challenges. They’re interacting dimensions of a business environ- ment that requires new approaches to leadership and organization. Leaders navigating these frontiers need capabilities that traditional management education hasn’t emphasized: Systems Thinking: Understanding how actions in one domain affect seemingly unrelated areas, how feedback loops amplify or dampen effects, and how interventions can produce unintended consequences. Ambiguity Tolerance: Becoming comfortable with partial infor- mation, multiple interpretations, and the limitations of predictability in complex systems. Adaptive Decision-Making: Moving beyond rigid planning cycles to more fluid approaches that sense, respond, and adjust continuously as conditions change.
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