Michael Lissack
2. Historical testing : Examine how well this model would have performed in past situations: ○ Would it have predicted significant developments? ○ Would it have enabled effective navigation of past challenges? ○ What historical events or patterns does it fail to explain? 3. Scenario testing : Test the model against diverse potential futures: ○ Under what conditions would this model fail to provide useful guidance? ○ What types of changes would render this model obsolete? ○ How robust is this model across different potential scenarios? 4. Reverse analysis : Start with failure and work backward: ○ Imagine a significant failure in navigating this domain ○ What assumptions or aspects of the current model would contribute to such failure? ○ What early warning signs of model inadequacy might be detectable?
5. Resilience development :
○ How might the model be enhanced to address identified vulnerabilities? ○ What complementary models might provide robustness where this model is weak? ○ What monitoring approaches could provide early indica- tion of model limitations?
Perspective Rotation Exercise
Purpose
To systematically develop the ability to see situations from multiple perspectives.
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