NEWS
New study explores effects of Russia-Ukraine war on global wood trade A new study in Forest Policy and Economics
journal explores the short- and long-term effects of the Russia-Ukraine war on the global forest products trade. Conducted and written by Prakash Nepal, Austin Lamica, and Rajan Parajuli, the study indicated that in the short term, prices for industrial roundwood and finished wood products might increase by up to 3%, but in the long term, the Russian markets for industrial roundwood and sawnwood might recover to pre-invasion levels. Even then, the Russian and Ukrainian markets for wood-based panels and papers will undergo major and permanent structural changes within the next 30 years. Russia invaded Ukraine back in February 2022, and several European countries and the US have imposed sanctions on Russia, including on forest products. In July 2022, the same few countries implemented a ban on Russian wood imports, conferring the status of ‘conflict timber’ onto Russia’s lumber. ‘Conflict timber’ has been defined by multiple forest organisations, such as the Programme for the Endorsement of Forest Certification (PEFC) and Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) as timber “traded at some point in the chain of custody by armed groups”. The authors’ methodology was to compare “the projected outcomes from the Global Forest Products Market (GFPM) model simulations for a reference (no invasion) scenario with an alternate scenario, where trade flows of all wood products were restricted from and to Russia as well as Ukraine by a varying degree of magnitudes (33% to 95%) between 2021 and 2025”. The analysis can reportedly “provide nuanced perspectives to forest managers, supply chain businesses, and policy makers”. P
Image: Unsplash
SEPTEMBER / OCTOBER 2024 | PANELS & FURNITURE ASIA 11
Made with FlippingBook flipbook maker