A New Year, a New Hope
Real GDP Growth (% YoY)
Global economic outlook is more hopeful for 2025. Cabinet changes across several of the G20 and accommodative monetary policies signal greater potential for growth across markets and industries. The incoming US Presidential Administration heavily influences the global macroeconomic outlook for 2025. The election of Donald Trump in the US is widely expected to improve the economic and regulatory landscape for business owners. In the international arena, President-elect Trump’s trade policies will likely focus on attempting to solidify U.S. dominance in areas such as digital technology and artificial intelligence, broadly benefitting the tech industry as a role. US President-Elect Trump's generally pro-business stance is encouraging to global markets. The new administration's proposed tax policies could lead to substantial changes in the US economy and its partners. Tax cuts, particularly for corporations and high-income earners, might stimulate investment and economic activity. While global financial markets are especially poised for a potentially transformative period, across- the-board tariffs from the US would be unusual — the impact on the global economy could be considerable. However, the potential imposition of tariffs is more likely the starting point of negotiations. Worldwide GDP is forecast to expand 3.0% next year, slightly below prior estimates. The UK and EU are expected to continue to struggle with growth but could be impacted positively by events in the U.S. In China, growth is expected below the official 5% target for the year. For the U.S., there is no consensus, and forecasts are being reconsidered at this writing. Goldman Sachs and UBS forecast 2025 U.S. GDP growth at 2.7-2.9%. The U.S. economy could initially grow slightly faster under Trump's plans to cut corporate taxes, but that impact could quickly fade depending on the effects of a tariff conflict. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose to 111.7 in November 2024, an increase of 2.1 points from October and the highest level since July 2023. This likely reflects increased consumer optimism following the U.S. presidential election and more positive assessments of the current labor market.
4.8%
4.1%
3.3%
3.0%
2.9%
2.7%
1.5%
1.2%
0.9%
0.8%
24E 25E
24E 25E Euro Zone
24E 25E
24E 25E
24E 25E
US
UK
China
World
Consumer Confidence Index (%)
Index, 1985 = 100
140
Recent uptick in Consumer Confidence
130
120
111.7
110
100
90
80
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Source: S&P Global Economic Research and The Conference Board.
4
Made with FlippingBook interactive PDF creator