The landing – soft or hard – matters for equities
S&P500 AROUND FIRST FED RATE CUT
120
120
* CYCLES SINCE 1953. EXCLUDES 1980 AND 2019. DAY ZERO IS FIRST DAY OF THE MONTH THAT THE FED FIRST EASED POLICY.
FIRST FED CUT
115
115
110
110
SOFT LANDINGS
105
105
100
100
95
95
HARD LANDINGS*
90
90
-200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 DAYS AROUND FIRST FED RATE CUT
1
Sources: Bloomberg, IBES/DataStream, Standard & Poor’s, NBER
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