This year’s rally is pricing in next year’s soft landing
LEADING INDEX & RELATIVE EQUITY/BOND DM RETURNS
80
9
* 12 MONTH RETURN ON GLOBAL EQUITIES (MSCI DM) LESS 12 MONTH RETURN ON GOVERNMENT BONDS. † OECD LEADING INDEX FOR G7 ECONOMIES.
60
7
LEADING INDEX† (RHS)
40
5
20
3
0
1
-20
-1
-40
-3
EQUITY/BOND RELATIVE RETURN*
-60
-5
1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 2023
1
Sources: MSCI, Bloomberg, OECD, NBER
45
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