CH Investment & Economic Strategy Lunch 2023

Investing in the next cycle #2: equity-bond correlation flips

US EQUITY-BOND CORRELATION

0.8

0.8

EQUITIES FALL WHEN BOND YIELDS RISE

0.6

0.6

0.4

0.4

0.2

0.2

0.0

0.0

-0.2

-0.2

-0.4

-0.4

EQUITIES RISE WHEN BOND YIELDS RISE

-0.6

-0.6

ROLLING 36 MONTH CORRELATION BETWEEN THE 1 MONTH TOTAL RETURN ON S&P500 AND 1 MONTH RETURN ON 10 YEAR TREASURIES.

-0.8

-0.8

00 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 20

1

Sources: Standard & Poor’s, Bloomberg, GFD, NBER

54

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