Investing in the next cycle #4: equity leadership change
REAL S&P EPS (LOG SCALE)
128
128
95
NUMBERS ARE THE PERCENTAGE GAP BETWEEN ACTUAL AND TREND EPS.
64
64
32
HISTORICAL TREND GROWTH IN REAL EPS (1.8% PA)
12
32
32
8
95
16
16
11
45
61
8
8
4
4
2
2
1
1
1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030
1
Sources: Shiller, Standard & Poor’s, NBER
65
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