CH Investment & Economic Strategy Lunch 2023

Investing in the next cycle #4: equity leadership change

EQUITY VALUATION & EPS DEVIATION FROM TREND

20 40 60 80 100

20 40 60 80 100

FROM 2021

R² = 0.16

-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0

-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0

CAPE VERSUS REAL EPS DEVIATION FROM LONG RUN TREND. RED DOT IS LATEST OBSERVATION.

0 5 101520253035404550 CYCLE ADJUSTED PE (CAPE)

1

Sources: Shiller, Standard & Poor’s, BLS

66

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