Key point #1: there will be a landing, soft or hard, but no landing makes no sense
PRIVATE HOURS WORKED AND PRIVATE GDP GROWTH
10
12
8
10
6
8
PRIVATE HOURS WORKED†
4
6
2
4
0
2
-2
0
-4
-2
PRIVATE GDP* (RHS)
-6
-4
* GDP EXCLUDING PUBLIC CONSUMPTION & INVESTMENT. LEADING BY 3M. † 3MMA.
-8
-6
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
1
Sources: BEA, BLS, NBER
81
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