The Global Advisor Kidnap & extortive crime 04.25

This report aims to provide readers with an indicative snapshot of kidnap, threat and extortive incidents captured by Control Risks’ Special Risks Analysis team to inform wider trends across Latin America. The following cases are open-source incidents taken from Control Risks’ records. These cases were selected based on their reliable sources and illustrative nature but do not represent the full extent of the problem.

The Global Advisor

Kidnap & extortive crime April 2025

The Global Advisor Kidnap & extortive crime | April 2025

The essential report written by Control Risks , for the exclusive readership of Hiscox brokers and policy holders.

Casework

Global kidnapping trends

Africa

Americas

Asia-Pacific

Middle East and North Africa

About Us

The Global Advisor Kidnap & extortive crime | April 2025

Control Risks’ Casework January to March 2025

Kidnap & ransom In the event of an acute crisis – be it kidnap for ransom, extortion, threat, illegal detention or a missing person – effective professional advice is critical. Control Risks is the leading global crisis response consultancy, assigned exclusively to Hiscox assureds. We consistently assist clients with more incidents each year than any other consultancy, giving Control Risks’ consultants an unparalleled level of relevant and recent expertise. Our Response team is immediately available to deploy anywhere in the world. We also have 41 offices worldwide and can provide immediate on-the-ground support to clients in the event of an incident. Control Risks maintains the only team of analysts in the industry that is dedicated to tracking kidnapping-for-ransom and other extortive crime trends globally. The team provides critical operational analysis to support consultants deployed to advise on the resolution of the kidnaps, detentions, threats and extortions affecting Hiscox policy holders. Using the world’s largest commercial database of kidnaps and extortion – currently containing details of more than 87,000 incidents – and their understanding of local security dynamics, the analysts can provide tactical information for a given location, such as the average length of cases and typical concessions, as well as the identities of groups operating there and their motivations. The analysts carry out research and support incidents in multiple languages, including English, French, Spanish, German, Italian, Portuguese, Farsi and Arabic.

The team also supports Hiscox policy holders with preventive kidnap and extortion analysis on the Global Risk Data online platform (brought to assureds by Hiscox as a benefit of the policy), and through bespoke consulting analysis tailored to assureds’ individual exposures.

Location of Control Risks’ cases

Number of cases per country

24 United States 20 Mexico 4 Ecuador

Breakdown of cases

60% Threat

23% Kidnap

15% Threat Extortion

2 Canada, China, Sudan 1

1% Detention

Australia, Colombia, France, Honduras, India, Indonesia, Italy, Lesotho, Morocco, North Macedonia, Palestine, Peru, South Africa

1% Missing Person

The Global Advisor Kidnap & extortive crime | April 2025

Global kidnapping trends January to March 2025

Key trends: open source Incidents by region and local vs foreign nationals

Perpetrator types

100%

Europe & CIS

36 %

1 %

MENA

80%

42 %

7 %

8 %

27 %

13 %

1 %

60%

13 %

Americas

51 %

Asia Pacific

40%

Local nationals

Sub-Saharan Africa

Foreign nationals

20%

63 % of abductions happened in transit/outdoors 89 % of abductions resolved in less than 8 days

93 % of global victims were local nationals 23 sectors affected

Americas

Asia and Pacific Europe and CIS

MENA

Sub-Saharan Africa

Islamist extremist

Ethnic/Nationalist

Left-wing

Criminal

Local Community Group

Other

The Global Advisor Kidnap & extortive crime | April 2025

Africa

The number of reported kidnaps in Nigeria increased by 21% in the first quarter of 2025 relative to the same period in 2024. A wide range of perpetrators, including bandit groups, Islamist extremists such as Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad (JAS) and Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), have engaged in more kidnaps. Perpetrators in Q1 continued to target victims across various sectors, including retail, real estate, logistics, healthcare and humanitarian organisations. Kidnappers will retain the capability to break into compounds to abduct commercial personnel, as exemplified by the kidnap of two humanitarian workers in Borno state in February. Meanwhile, the Sahel region saw a spate of abductions that involved a wide range of foreign victims, including an Austrian humanitarian worker in the Agadez region in Niger and two Chinese oil workers in the Diffa region of Niger; all three reportedly remained in captivity as of early April 2025. The kidnap threat will continue to stem from Islamist extremist groups, such as Nusrat al-Islam (JNIM) and Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP), as well as financially motivated criminals. Perpetrators will continue to view foreign nationals as lucrative targets and will retain the infrastructure to hold high-value victims in captivity for extended periods, often for years. The M23 rebel group takeover of Goma and Bukavu in the Congo (DRC) in Q1 has enabled rebels and financially motivated criminals to engage in kidnapping with relative impunity. M23 rebels in late February reportedly abducted at least 130 patients from two separate hospitals in Goma, accusing the victims of being members of the pro-DRC government Walazendo militia or the Congolese army

(FARDC). The M23 will continue to rely on the crime as a means of territorial control and forced recruitment, while criminal groups will likely exploit the security vacuum to escalate their reliance on kidnapping-for-ransom. Somalia , as well as the eastern counties of Kenya , continued to present one of the highest-risk areas for kidnapping in the region. Control Risks recorded a limited uptick in kidnapping activity in these areas over Q1, following multiple cross-border abductions into eastern Kenya and releases of proof of life videos. Humanitarian and health workers will continue to face the highest kidnap threat in these areas, as kidnappers will view them as lucrative targets or seek to exploit their technical skills.

60 % of abductions happened in transit/outdoors 85 % of abductions resolved in less than 8 days 15 sectors affected

Key developments January to March 2025

The number of reported kidnaps across Sub-Saharan Africa remained comparatively stable in Q1 2025 relative to the same period in 2024. However, Nigeria saw a 21% increase in reported kidnaps over the same timeframe. Foreign commercial personnel continued to face a prevalent kidnap threat across the Sahel region , with Q1 seeing an uptick in abductions of foreign nationals. The M23 rebel group’s takeover of Goma (North Kivu province) and Bukavu (South Kivu province) in Congo (DRC) has enabled rebels and financially motivated criminals to engage in kidnapping with relative impunity. Kidnapper activity saw a limited

uptick in eastern Kenya and Somalia, following multiple cross-border abductions and releases of proof of life videos.

The Global Advisor Kidnap & extortive crime | April 2025

Americas

Kidnap-for-ransom incident numbers in Mexico continued to increase over Q1 2025, with the total number of cases rising by 80% compared with the total recorded in the first quarter of 2024. Much of the rise was driven by increased gang activity in the states of Sinaloa, Jalisco, Nuevo Leon, Mexico and Veracruz, where reported cases increased by an average of 65% over the same period. Virtual kidnaps followed a similar pattern largely due to the growing number of criminals – including local gangs and organised criminal groups – engaged in this type of crime across the country. Overall, virtual kidnaps increased by 60% compared with Q4 2024, and 350% compared with Q1 2024. Control Risks identified an 86% reduction in the number of kidnaps recorded in Ecuador during the quarter, compared with the last quarter of 2024. This pattern is more likely related to media fatigue regarding reports of kidnap-for-ransom rather than an improvement in the country’s overall security environment. Most criminal groups regularly engage in opportunistic and planned kidnaps across major hotspots such as the provinces of Guayas, Los Ríos, Manabí, Pichincha and El Oro. Additionally, turf wars between criminal groups in provinces in the coastal region have become more common, driving the number of violent murders over the first two months of 2025 to one of the highest levels ever recorded. The number of recorded cases in Colombia between January and March 2025 increased by 9% compared with Q4 2024. In rural areas, left-wing guerrillas such as the ELN and FARC dissident groups continued to use kidnap-for- ransom as an effective tool for raising revenue as well as enforcing their authority in areas under their control. A latent threat will persist for large

companies involved in operations with lots of outdoor sites in rural areas. Meanwhile, the increasing number of turf wars between gangs across major cities in departments like Cundinamarca, Atlantico, Valle del Cauca and Magdalena drove a marked uptick in extortion rackets affecting small and medium-sized businesses. Control Risks recorded a 175% increase in the number of detentions in Venezuela between January and March 2025, compared with the last quarter of 2024. The prevalence of detentions increased following political upheaval after the contested results of the presidential elections in early August. Authorities retained the intent to adopt a hard stance against perceived political threats or opponents and will continue to do so over the coming year. Victims mainly included local nationals associated with the political opposition, journalists and activists, though

foreign nationals, mainly from Latin American countries, accounted for roughly 30% of victims. Such incidents took place at points of entry into the country, including all international airports and border crossings. 67 % of abductions happened in transit/outdoors 93 % of abductions resolved in less than 8 days 18 sectors affected

Key developments January to March 2025

The number of recorded kidnaps in Mexico’s hotspots for the crime saw a sharp increase over Q1 compared with the same period in 2024. Criminal groups remained operational across all major urban centres in Ecuador despite a decrease in the number of recorded incidents for the second quarter in a row. The kidnap and extortion threat environment in Colombia continues to pose serious challenges as the authorities struggle to curb the growth of left-wing guerrillas and urban gangs throughout the country. Politically motivated detentions in Venezuela remained a prevalent threat six months on from the disputed presidential election in August 2024.

The Global Advisor Kidnap & extortive crime | April 2025

Asia-Pacific

The increase in recorded cases over the first quarter in India is likely due to variations in the quality of media reporting rather than a deterioration in the country’s security environment over the longer term. A key contributor to the increase was a 100% uptick in the number of reported kidnaps in the eastern state of Odisha, largely driven by low-capability criminals targeting local businesspeople. Other major hotspots such as Maharashtra or Manipur recorded numbers slightly higher than the last quarter of 2024, though these numbers remained significantly lower than for the same period a year ago. Low-capability criminals who specialise in opportunistic kidnaps will remain the main perpetrators of kidnaps across all states. In the first quarter of 2025, Control Risks recorded a 28% decrease in the number of recorded incidents in Thailand compared with the last quarter of 2024. Despite this trend, a variety of perpetrator groups remained engaged in kidnapping, including both local gangs and international criminal groups. The Greater Bangkok region remained the national hotspot and accounted for a little under half of all incidents, while other provinces such as Chonburi and Phuket continued to record high numbers by national standards. Organised criminal groups that operate across multiple countries in South-east Asia remained present in Bangkok and focused on targeting perceivably wealthy victims, including foreign nationals. While reported kidnaps in Bangladesh in the first quarter of 2025 declined compared with the last quarter of 2024, the number of incidents in the Chittagong division increased by 66% over the two quarters. Although Bangladesh accounted for fewer than 8% of all recorded incidents in the Asia-Pacific region over Q4

2024, major urban centres in Dhaka, Rajshahi and Chittagong divisions frequently record incidents. Financially motivated, local criminal gangs in the Eastern division routinely targeted employees of companies across a wide range of sectors, especially those with accessible workplaces. Control Risks identified a 50% increase in the number of reported kidnaps in the Philippines between January and March, compared with the last quarter of 2024. In the Manila metropolitan area, Control Risks recorded multiple incidents in which high-capability gangs with ties to larger transnational criminal groups targeted high income-individuals. Foreign nationals are the most commonly targeted victim demographic accounting for more than 80% of the victims during the first quarter of 2025. Most of these victims are

expatriates and business travellers from China and other countries in South-east Asia. 72 % of abductions happened in transit/outdoors 94 % of abductions resolved in less than 8 days 18 sectors affected

Key developments January to March 2025

The first quarter of 2025 marked a shift in the threat environment in India as the number of recorded cases increased following a sustained decline over the last two quarters of 2024. Kidnap threats in Thailand persisted despite a relative downturn in incidents. Despite not recording major changes in the number of recorded kidnaps at the

national level in Bangladesh , the Chittagong division witnessed a

significant uptick during the first quarter. The number of confirmed kidnaps in the Philippines increased after a slight decline during Q4 2024.

The Global Advisor Kidnap & extortive crime | April 2025

Middle East and North Africa

Although numbers of reported kidnaps in Syria decreased over the first quarter of 2025 relative to the same period in 2024, this was likely largely a by-product of a more opaque reporting environment rather than a decline in actual cases. The changing security dynamics since the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024 have created a security vacuum that various threat actors, including criminal and Islamist extremist groups, have exploited to escalate their reliance on kidnapping as a threat tactic and revenue source. Financially motivated criminal groups will continue to engage in kidnaps in the Homs and Daraa governorates. Meanwhile, competing armed forces, including forces affiliated with former Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and pro-Assad forces, will rely on the crime as a means of asserting territorial control and interrogating individuals perceived affiliation with political opponents. Commercial personnel continue to face a prevalent detention threat in Iran , which has a long-standing precedent of engaging in “hostage diplomacy” to secure concessions from detainees’ host governments. The detention threat to foreign and dual nationals will likely be exacerbated by the formal resumption of the US policy of maximum pressure in early February and worsening relations with the West. Iran will likely escalate its reliance on hostage diplomacy as a coercive tactic to gain leverage in diplomatic and economic negotiations, as exemplified by the emergence of reports in mid-February of two British nationals who had been detained under espionage charges. Tehran will continue to hold detainees in custody for protracted periods, often years, until it can secure a political or economic concession in return for their release.

Large swathes of desert terrain in southern Algeria and its proximity to the unstable Sahel region will continue to enable kidnap groups to carry out cross-border incursions, sustaining an elevated kidnap threat. While abductions of foreign nationals will remain rare in southern Algeria given their low numbers, Sahel-based Islamist extremist groups, as well as local bandits and criminal groups, will retain the intent and capability to target foreign nationals when an opportunity arises. Unidentified kidnappers in January abducted a Spanish tourist in southern Algeria, before a Mali-based rebel group secured his release, reportedly in the Menaka region of Mali. The detention threat in Yemen over Q1 remained closely tied to developments in the broader Middle East and the Houthi rebel group’s ongoing efforts to assert control over humanitarian organisations. In January, following the early days of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Palestinian militant movement Hamas, the Houthis released the 25-member crew of the commercial cargo vessel Galaxy Leader, detained since November 2023. However, the Houthis have continued to pose a detention threat to local and foreign individuals with perceived affiliations to the West, including staff of humanitarian or inter-governmental organisations. Further detentions remain likely over the coming months as the Houthis seek to tighten control over humanitarian organisations in the country.

69 % of abductions happened in transit/outdoors 76 % of abductions resolved in less than 8 days 7 sectors affected

Key developments January to March 2025

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) saw the number of reported kidnaps over the first quarter of 2025 decrease relative to the same period in 2024. Much of the decrease in the region

was due to a marked reduction in reported kidnaps in Syria , where

media shifted towards reporting on the general security situation rather than on specific incidents. Authorities in Iran have continued to rely on hostage diplomacy, amid worsening relations with the West and the resumption of the US “Maximum Pressure” policy under the Trump administration. Porous borders in southern Algeria have continued to drive an elevated kidnap threat by enabling kidnap groups to engage in cross-border kidnaps. Yemen continued to feature elevated detention threats, particularly to staff of humanitarian or inter-governmental organisations.

The Global Advisor Kidnap & extortive crime | April 2025

About Us The Hiscox Crisis Management division serves both corporate and private clients. Our exclusive partnership with Control Risks allows us to combine renowned insurance expertise with unparalleled security risk and crisis management capability to protect what matters most to our clients. We are the global leaders in this sector. For over 30 years in partnership, Hiscox and Control Risks have helped policyholders manage thousands of crisis events, including complex security and integrity issues. Together, we combine our insurance expertise with Control Risks’ capabilities across security risk and crisis management, protecting what matters most to our clients.

Control Risks is a global specialist risk consultancy. We are committed to helping our clients build organisations that are secure, compliant and resilient in an age of ever-changing risk. We believe that responsible risk-taking is at the core of our clients’ success. We have unparalleled experience in helping clients ready themselves for, respond to and recover from challenges and crises that arise in any ambitious organisation seeking to convert risk into opportunity globally. Kidnap & ransom Hiscox has established itself as the world’s leading provider of crisis insurance for the last 25 years, offering financial protection and world-class response services to corporations and private individuals all around the world. Our insurance offering keeps people and businesses safe against the threat of kidnap, extortive threats, malicious detention, hijack and other complex crises. We insure all forms of corporates, from the largest multinationals to the smallest companies, as well as families and some of the wealthiest people in the world whose wealth or fame may attract unwanted attention. Hiscox is the world’s largest provider of crisis insurance, currently underwriting more than half of the industry’s kidnap and ransom insurance premium.

In business since 1901, Hiscox is one of the most trusted and influential Lloyd’s of London syndicates. Whether it’s protecting family homes from a storm surge or hail damage, helping to safeguard blue-chip companies from the crippling financial and reputational costs of a cyber-attack, or working to keep employees safe and businesses operational following a terrorist incident, we continue to innovate to respond to some of the most complex, volatile and emerging risks.

Key coverages include:

Multinational companies of all sizes operating in high risk regions of the world Charities and NGOs Security companies Shipping companies Key executives working in commercially sensitive positions Private families

Copyright © Control Risks. All rights reserved. This report is for distribution by Hiscox only and must not be reproduced or disclosed to any other party (“Third Party”) without the express prior written consent of Control Risks or Hiscox. Any reproduction or disclosure without authorisation shall be considered an infringement of Control Risks’ intellectual property rights (including copyright). If authorised, disclosure by an authorised party (“Authorised Party”) must be subject to the following conditions: (i) the Authorised Party will not change the wording or alter the meaning given in any part of this report; (ii) all extracts from this report will be individually attributed to Control Risks with the reference “Source: Control Risks” at the end of such extract; and (iii) save as otherwise agreed in writing by Control Risks, the Authorised Party will not broadcast, publish, resell or otherwise disclose this report to any Third Party without the prior written consent of Control Risks. This report is based on information available at the time of writing. No express or implied warranty is given in respect of any judgment made or to changes or any unforeseen escalation of any factors affecting any such judgment. The issues covered by this report and the emphasis placed on them may not necessarily address all the issues of concern in relation to its subject matter. Analysis provided in this report does not in any way constitute recommendations or advice, nor constitute a warranty of future results by any company in the Control Risks group of companies (“Control Risks”) nor an assurance against risk. Control Risks disclaims all liability arising from the disclosure and use of this report.

For more information about Hiscox or Control Risks, please contact: Kidnap and Ransom Team KR.London@hiscox.com KR.Guernsey@hiscox.com hiscox.com Special Risks Analysis Team specialrisksanalysis@controlrisks.com controlrisks.com

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