shock: Napa is estimated to have lost 4,510 residents since its peak and also remains below its 2010 population level; Sonoma County is estimated to have lost 18,130 residents since its peak, bringing the population close to 2010 levels. The intra-county changes are not available yet; the Census Bureau provides its estimates from the American Community Survey later in the year. What is available are categorical components that explain the change. The levers are easy to understand: births, deaths (in sum, think “natural change”), net migration from outside the county to points within the United States, and net migration from other countries. The graphic below shows the four categories and the net change across these three counties. As the graphic shows, migration trends have reversed since the mid-2010s: international migration does not offset the number of people leaving for other
parts of California and other states, and that is unlikely to change due to work visas and general immigration policies. Notice the black columns showing “domestic” migration, which have been negative for some time, specifically after the 2017 fires and then again after the pandemic’s main problem years (2021 and 2022). However, births and deaths are also worth watching, as they indicate a general trend in this region: we are aging. Public policy makers face a set of challenges. Housing prices are relatively high here. Wealth is often the primary factor in homeownership here, followed by income. Wage levels have generally lagged state averages outside
Marin County, whose economy is more closely tied to the greater Bay Area. When wealth is the main reason someone can live in a certain place, the population ages. Emigration to other places is generally an economic decision: a family seeks a better balance between the cost of living and the cost of making a living. We need economic reasons for new residents to come and stay; otherwise, the region is not naturally attractive as a place to live. g
Dr. Robert Eyler is professor of economics at Sonoma State University and president of Economic Forensics and Analytics in Sonoma County.
March | April 2026
NorthBaybiz 19
Made with FlippingBook - Online catalogs