A nEanl yrsoilsl mR ee np to r t 2025-2026 to 2030-2031
January 2026 N e1w0t0o nWPaul nbul itc SStcr he eoto l s Newton, MA 02460
Dr. Anna Nolin Superintendent
Dr. Katy Hogue Chief of Data and Research
Acknowledgements: Liam Hurley, Assistant Superintendent/Chief Financial & Administrative Officer McKenna Bush, Manager of Data Analytics Janelle Sutherland, Business Operations Coordinator
Thao (Tracy) Chau, Scheduler/Data Analyst, Newton South Meghan Smith, Scheduler/Data Analyst, Newton North
TABLE OF CONTENTS
SECTION
PAGE
Introduction and Overview
1-5
I.
Enrollment Trends System-wide Projections Elementary Projections Secondary Projections National, State and Local Trends
6-18
Rental Housing Complexes Housing Trends in Newton Trends in Housing Patterns of District Families Real Estate Sales
II.
Enrollment Projection Method Kindergarten Projection Methodology
19-30
NESDEC Comparison Accuracy of Projections Frequently Asked Questions
III.
Enrollment History Grade-by-Grade Analysis A Comparison to Peak Enrollment Years
31-33
IV.
Individual School Reports
34-76
V.
Student Exits and Entrances
77-85 86-92
VI.
Non-Public/Private School Students
Appendices
93-137
A. Student Population Detail B. Residential Property Data C. NESDEC’s Enrollment Projections vs. Newton’s D. School Districts and Buffer Zones E. Residential Development
LIST OF TABLES TABLE
PAGE
1. Projected Enrollments by School 2026-27 to 2030-31
13
2. Enrollment History and Projections by School 1981-82 to 2030-31 3. Projected Enrollments by Grade 2026-2027 to 2030-31 4. Enrollment History and Projections by Grade 1981-82 to 2030-31 5. Comparison of Projected with Actual 2024-25 and 2025-26 Enrollment 6. Actual and Projected Enrollments by School 2025-2026 7. Actual and Projected K-12 Enrollments 2020-21 to 2030-31
14-15
16
17-18
25
26-27
28 32 33 79 80 80 81 82 84 85 85 90 91 92
8. Enrollments by Grade 2024-25 and 2025-26 9. Historical Cohort Survival Ratios by Grade 10. Exiting Elementary School Students 2024-25 11. Exiting Middle School Students 2024-25 12. Exiting High School Students 2024-25 13. Total Student Exits 2022-23 through 2024-25
14. History of Exits to Non-Public Schools 2018-19 to 2025-26
15. Entering Elementary School Students 2024-25 and 2025-26 as of October 1, 2025 16. Entering Middle School Students 2024-25 and 2025-26 as of October 1, 2025 17. Entering High School Students 2024-25 and 2025-26 as of October 1, 2025
18. Non-Public/Private School Students by Grade (2025 Census) 19. Non-Public/Private School by School (2025 Census) 20. Special Education Students Tuitioned-Out (2025 Census)
APPENDICES
Appendix A – Student Population Detail
PAGE
1. Student Demographics 2. Preschool Students
93-96
97
3. METCO Enrollment by School and Grade & Historical Enrollment
98-99
4. English Language Learners Enrollment
100 102
5. English Language Learners Enrollment by Language 6. Students Receiving Special Education Services
103-104
7. Number of Non-resident Students
105
Appendix B – Residential Property Data
8. Residential Property Sales by Elementary District 9. Properties Listed for Sale in Newton by Elementary District
106 107
Appendix C – NESDEC Enrollment Projections
10. NESDEC’s Enrollment Projections vs. Newton’s
108
Appendix D – School Districts and Buffer Zones
11. Elementary Students by District with Buffer Zones 12. Total Enrollment by High School Feeder Patterns 13. Current Elementary, Middle and High School District Maps
109-111
112
113-115
Appendix E – Residential Development
Proposed Residential Development Projections: FAQs
116-120 121-131 132-137
14. Estimated Enrollment of Existing and Proposed Residential Development
15. Actual Enrollment for Existing Complexes
INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW
INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW Td ehcer Ne aeswe toofn1P5u9bsl ti cu dS ce hn ot so, los rK--11. 24 %e n, rf rool lmm el anstt wy eaas r1. 1T,h3i3s 5e ns truodl lemnet sn to nd eOc cl itnoeb ewra1s , p2r0o2j e5c, tae d : ee nn rr oo ll ll mm ee nn tt wo f a1s1p, 3r o9 j6e. cTt ehdi st ios dt he ce l ieni geh-t0h. 9c%o n(s-e9c8u st itvued ye enat sr )offr oa md elcalsi nt ey ei na refnorroal l mp reonj et ci tne d Na ne we nt or onl lamf teenr t2d9eyc el ianres ooff -s4t %a b islti at yt eowr igdreo fwr ot hmi ns eevnerno yl l emaer ns ta. gToh, ea lstthaot eu ghha st hael ssot aetxepsearwi e na csel di g h t innoctr pe ausbel i icnl yeanvr aoilllambel en. tTl ahset tyree anrd (o+f0e. 1n%r o)l;l ms teant et wd ei dcel i ne en ri os lel mx peenctt endu mt obceorns tfionru 2e ;0t2h5e- 2U0S2 6 a r e D2 0e 2p 2a r- 2t m0 3e 1n,t aonf dE adnu ceant ri oonl l mi s epnrtodj eecctl ii nn ge aonf -e7n. 2r o%l l mi neMn ta sdseaccl ihnues oe tf t-s5o. 5v%e r nt ha tei os na mw iedtei mf reo mp e r i o d . N1 1e,w2 1t o8n(’ as pd reoc jl ei ncet i oo nf -s1f.o0r%n)e, xatl tyheoaur gi hn dt hi cias tdeeac ldi ne cel ii ns en oi nt ceonnr os il sl mt eennt taoc fr o1s1s7l es vt uedl se. nEtlse mt oe n t a r y si nc chroeoalsseabr ey p1 r. 3o%j e c(t+e3d5t os tduedcel ni nt es )b, ya n- 2d . 1h %i g h( -s1c 0h 2o osltsu adreen pt sr)o, jme ci tdeddl et os cdheocol ilns ea br ey p- 1r o. 3j %e c t(e- d5 0t o sr at ut idoemn test)h. oTdhoe l po gr oy j ue ct itliiozne dmbeyt hNoedwo tl oo gnyPtuhbi sl i yc eSacrh foool ll so,wa sl t ht hoeu tgyhpti hc ae l cfoi vheo- ryte saur rcvoi hv ao lr tr astui or vs i bv ay l st hc he opoalnf do er mt hi ec . KT-ht oe -p1rcooj ehcotri ot nh ams ebteheond ao dl oj ug ys tiesddbeas sc er idb eo dn il ni nmg eorri ne gd ee nt ariol lilnmtehnet Ei mn rpoal lcmt sefnr to m TTrheencdusrrseencttiofinv.e-year enrollment projections through 2030-31 show overall district ek ni nrdo el lrmg ae rntte dn eccl lai ns seessi na rteh pe rf oi rj setc tt he dr eteo yeenatresr, . aYse laarrsg feorucrl aasnsde sf i gv reaodfutahtee pg rr oa jdeec t1i o2 nasnsdhsomwa l l e r op vr oe jreacl lt isotna sb ii lni tcyl ui nd ed si st ut rdi cetnet sn rpor lol mj e ce tnetd. At os ienn pr or li lo frr yo ema rpse, rt mh ei tct ue rdr reenst i df i ev ne t- yi ael adr eevnerl oo lpl mm ee nn tt s (TphliesaissetsheeesAi xpt ph ecnodnisxeEc uftoirv ed eyteaairl eodf iknifnodremragtairotne)n. e n r o l l m e n t u n d e r 8 0 0 , a n d i s t h e s m a l l e s t ky ei nadr se ragsatrht ee ns ec sl ams sa lsl ei nr cceo 1h 9o 8r t5s, owf hs itcuhd iemn tpsa pc trso gt hr ee sesl et hmr eonu tgahr yt hper oe lj ee mc t ieonnt sa royv eg rr at dh ee sn. eExvte fni v e tghr oo uwgthh p( er sopj eecctieadl l yk iinndf ei rrsgtaarnt ednscelcaosns edsgarvaedreasg) ea 7n 0d 7psr touj edcetnetds aodvde irt itohne anl esxt ut df ievne tys ef ar or sm, cnoehwo r t rt he rs oi duegnht i5a lodveevr et lhoep nmeexnt tfsi vree syuelat risn. Bc oehc ao ur ts es i oz ef st hbi es tcwo eheonr t7g4r6o wt ot h8 5a0n ds tpurdoej ne ct st ei dn ng reawd e s 1 sgtruodwentots8f2r1omstuddeveenltospbmy efanltls2, t0h3i0s ywehaern’s tchlaissscloafs6s 8is7ikninfidftehrggraardteen. stud ents is p roj ected to Dc ui sr trreinc tt wf i ifdt he ,gNr ae dwet oc no h’ soerlteomf e9n0t2a rsyt uednerno tl lsmmeonvt ei ss pt or ot hj eec tme di dtdol ed secchl ionoe l sn ea xntdype raor j ae sc ttehde cl oa rhgoerrt se inzreosl lrma negnet forvoemr t6h7e7r teom8a4i n8i ns tgu fdoeunrt ys eaacrrso sosf tkhi ne dperrogj ae rc tt ei onntsh sr ho ou wg hs fsi mf t ha lgl ri na dc ree. aEsl ee smienn t a r y ef rnormo l l0m. 5e%n t t aos 1s. l3i g%h ti lny el aa rc gheyr ekai rn)d, ewrigt ah rttoe tna lc leal se sme es natraer py reonj er oc tl lemd et no t ernetteurr (ngi nr og wt ot hs irma ni lgairn g leel ve me l se na tsatrhyeecnurrorlel mn teynet ai rs ipnr oy jeeacrtse df otuor garnodwf isvl ei g ohft ltyh eo vperro tj ehcet inoenxst. fAi vl tehyoeuagrhs ,otvhei sr agl rl o w t h i s nt oo td ce oc lni ns ies ti en netnarcorlol ms se inntdoi vv iedrutahleenl eemx te fni vt aer yy esacrhso; ot hl se. eMl eoms t eenl et amr ye ns tcahroyosl sc ht ho oa tl saar reeppr rooj ej ec ct et edd to grow are due to new and anticipated residential developments in those districts. 1
Fs tourdtehnet sf i, f wt hhyi ceha rwi na saprroowj e, cmt ei dd d( al epsrcohj oe oc tl es ds adwe cal i dn ee col ifn- e2 5i ns et undr oe lnl mt s )e. nTt ytphii cs aflal yl l, oNf P2S6 s e e s a dF oe cr l ti nh ee ti nh icrodhyoerat rs ii nz ea f rr oo wm, gt hr aedceo 5h ot or t garcatduea l6l y, agsr es wt u df reonmt s gl er aa dv ee f5o tropgrri va adtee 6m(itdhdi sl ec os chhoor ot l s . gNrPeSwf obry p5r isvt autdee sncths oi no l f ianl l g2r0a2d5e ; 6s el eef tT da bu lrei n8g) .t hI tei sp apno ds seimb liec , t thhaut ss tcuhda enng ti ns gwthhoe wt yopui cl da lhcaovheolretf t pMaitdtdelrensacghaoionltshairsefaplrl.ojected to grow next year (+35 students), as the incoming sixth grade ci nl aes as ci hs lyaeragre ro vt he ar nt ht eh er eomu tagi no ii nn gg feoi guhr tyhe ga rr as doef ct hl aes ps .rMo j iedcdt il oe ns,crhaonogl i en ng rfor lol mm eanyt et ah relny dd ee cc rr ee aa ss ee s ot hf e- 0f i. 5v e%- yteoa-r3p. 1r %o j e, ac tsi os mn , aml l iedr di lnec socmh ionogl se inxrt oh l lgmr aednet ci so ph roor jt es cet ne dt e trot hd ee cml i ni dedbl ey s1c3h3o os tl su. dOevnet rs (a-l 5t h%o )u, gf hr otmh i s2 ,d6e4c4l i ns teuids epnrtos j et oc dt eady dt oi s 2t r, 5i c1t 1w si dt ue d, iet ni st sniont fcaol ln2s 0i s3t e0 n. Lt iakcer oe sl es mmei nd tdal reys sc chhooool sl s. , Bf i vi gee yl oewa r iss bpercoaj ue cs et eodf ttoh ei ncchr ae na sgee iinn eenl ermo lel mn teanr ty tsoc ah roooul nf ede 5d 0e 0r -p5a2t 0t esrtnusdtehnatts boevgearnt hi ne fna el lx t 2n 0o t2e3t, hwaht itlhe et hdee colti hn ee ri nt hernereoml l mi dednl et ps cr ho oj eocltse adraet pDr aoyj eicst ea dl s ot oddueec troe at hs ee icnh ea nn rgoel li mn ee lnetm. Pelne taasrey sHcihgohoslcfheoeodlesrapraetpt erronj escttheadt tboedgeacnl iinnef ablyl 25002s3t u, adse innttsennedxetdy. e a r ( - 1 . 3 % ) , a s t h e c u r r e n t 1 2 th grade cohort of close to 1,000 students graduates and is replaced by a smaller 9 th grade cc oo hh oo rr tt . oHf iogvhesrc1h,o0o0l0e sntruodl lemn et sn gt ri sa dpur ao tj ee cs taenddt oi scroenptliancueed two idt he csl mi n ae l il ne rf aglrl a2d0e297 caoshtohret sf i, naanld tsht uednetnhtes h( ai gdhesccl hi noeo ol sf aarreo upnr odj e1c0t0e ds ttuodheanvt es frreol amt i cvue rsrteanbti lei tnyr owl li mt heennt r) .o l l m e n t a r o u n d 3 , 8 5 0 Ts thuedreenwt seirne O7 c4t0o bEenrg 2l i 0s h2 4L.eOa fr nt heer (7E4L0) EsLt us dt ehni st sy ei na rO, c5t0o6b earr e2 0e l2e5mceonmt aprayr setdu tdoe n7 t6s4( E1 L1 % o f t h e tpootpaul elaletimone)n,tsairmyiplaorptuolalatsiotny)eaarn.d 234 are secondary students (4% of the total secondary Tr ehme apienrecde nc ot angsei sot ef ns tt uwd iet nh t lsa rs et cyeei avri nagt s1p7e. 8c %i a l. eI fdpurceast ci ohno os le sr tvui cdeesntths i as rsec hi nocol ul yd ee adr i hn atsh e t o t a l , t1h8e%p.ercentage of students receiving special education services is the same as last year at Ss tpuedcei anlt es dbuacsaetdi oonn stthued Oe nc tt so be enrr o2l0l e2d5 iSnt uo ud te-notf -Sdeirsvt ri ci cets sRpeepc ioarlt e, wd uhci ac ht i oi nncsl uc hd oe os l9s 4t ootuatl o1 f2 0 dT ihset rNi cet wp tl ao cneEmaer nl yt sC ahni ldd h2o6oadg rPereomg reanmt s(. NT Eh Ci sPi)s eannr ionl cl erde a1s6e1opf r1e1s cs ht uodoel nc thsi lfdr roemn lians itnyteeagrr.a t e d et yapr li yc acl hl yi l idnhcor oe adscelsa sdsurroi on mg tshoer cionutrhseer oa fp tehuet iyc esaerr. vTi chees parse os cf hOocot ol mb eorv1e, d2 i0n2t o5 ; t ehne ri ro lnl me we n t b fu u t i u ld re in . g at 687 Watertown Street in January 2023 and has capacity for expansion in the Ionvcel ru d1 i1n, 6g 0p0r es st uc hdoe onlt sa.nSde cotui ot pnl aVc oe nd Ss tt uu dd ee nn tt sE, txhi tes dains dt r Ei cnt ’tsr af unlcl ePsKa-n1d2 +A pe np reonldl mi xeAn to tno St at ul sdjeuns tt
2
PedoupcualatitoionnstDuedteaniltcpoonptauilnataiodndsit.ional information on preschool and outplaced special Te nhri so lrl empeonr tt sdceot ma i lpsacrhe adntgoetshien Feenbrroul lamr ye n2 t0s2b5y psrcohj oe oc tl i soinnsc, ea lnads tpyreoaj er .c It ts reenvrioe lwl ms ec nu trsr euns ti n g as adljeuss, tne edwf i vdee-vyeelaorp hmi setnotrsi,csatluddaetna t cmo nosbi idl iet rye, db iirnt ht hdea ct ao,ncteenx st uosf dl oactaal, throeunsdi sn gi nt rr ee na ld es s, taantde os tt uh de er nf at sc tfor or sm. At hc et uParl e2l i0m2 i5n-a2r6y eEnnrrool ll ml meennt ts Rp er pe soer nt tf er od mi n Ot hc ti os br ee rp o2 r0t2h5a (v3e fdeewc er er aesnerdo bl l ye d6 a t tThheemdiisdtdrliectshchasoorelsceanntdly3ifmewpleermeennrtoeldletdwaot tphheahseigshosf cshtuodoelsn)t. assignment changes to balance e2 n0 r1o9l ,l me aecnht swai tmh oenxgp da ni sdt re idc te sncrhool loml se an st fciar ps ta Ac int yg. i eTrh ae ns ed cZhearnv ga es so, pa epnper do ,v feodl l ionwSeedp bt eymCbaebro t i n 2015 and October 2018 are now fully integrated into the projection methodology. Future Enrollment Th ihset ot ryipc iacl adl actoahyoiretl ds us rt vhiev aplr roaj et icot imo nest hf oo rd og rl oa gdye so 1f etnhrroolul mg he n1 t2 p. Fr oo jretcht ieopn as sut s4i nyge af irvse, -ay ef iavre - yy ee aa rr sa’ dwj uo sr tt ehdocf oehnor rotl lsmu re vnitv da al traa)t ;i ot hoi ms yi tetai nr ,gd2a0t a2 0f r ho ams tbheee np rui ot irl ifzi ev de y( aena dr st ihsuus suesde (di nocnl luyd4i n g fsaulrl v2i 0v 2a l1r, a2t0i o2s2 w, 2e0r2e 3a, d2j 0u 2s t4e, da nf odr 2t h0 e2 5k ienndreorlgl ma ret ne nt )-.t So i-mg rial adre t 1o cl aosht oyret as rt,ot huet i fl ii zv ee -ay ef oaur rc-oyhe oa rr t cc oo hh oo rr tt sg ur or vwi vt ha lf rr oa tmi ok; itnhdi se or gma irttse tnhteo f ga rl la2d0e211, lei nk er ol yl l amt terni bt udtaatba l, ewthoi ci mh pc oa cntssi sf treodmotfhvee r y l a r g e pa va enrdaegme iocf. Tp rheevki oi nuds ekri gnadret er gnapr treonj eec nt iroonl lsmheanv tes bbeye snc chaol oc ul . l Ka ti ne dd eursgi an rgt ea nn pa dr oj uj es ct et ido nf isv eh -ayveea r bp er ieonr mt oa2d0e 1w4 i, tchi tay tcherneseu- ys edaart, af owuar s- yuetai lri ,z oe rd ffi ov re -kyi enadre ar gv ae rr taegne pmr eo tj eh cotdi oonl os g. yT hs ei nsche i f2t 0t 1o 4t ;h e ak vi nedr ae gr ge amr teetnh op dr oojleocgtyi of no sr tkhi na dt ewregraer tt eono ol oc wc u. rAr ne da db jeucsatue sdef icvi tey- yceeanrs au vs edraatgae b(e2g0a2n5 p, 2r o0d2u4c, i n g 2w0h2e3r ,e 2a0n2 a2d, jaunsdt e2d0t2h1r )e ef o- yr ekai nr da ev re gr aa rg tee wn ai ss uusseedd tfhoirs kyienadre, rwg ha irct he ni s. Ts hh ii sf t yf er oa mr , ar ef icveen- ty ey ae ra r s ab ve ec raaugsee wa af isv eu-syeeda froarvceorna sgies treens cuyl t we di tihn tmh eo rme estthaobdl eo lporgoyj eucttiiloi znesdf of or rkgi nr adde er gs a1r-t1e2n a n d eunserodlilmn tehnits. ySeeaerS’secptrioojnecIItifoonr.more information and discussion of the full methodology Tenhreotlalmbleenbt.elow shows the projections for the next five years, as well as the current year’s
3
TS chheofoollsl o, fwr oi nmg fgarl al p1 h9 7i s5 at or e2p0r2e 5s e, anst awt ieol nl aosf p5 r0o yj eecatri so no sf ef rnormo l lfma l el n2 t0 i2n6 t thher oNue gwht o2 n0 3P0u. bTl ihce go rf aspt ahbiillliut ys t, rf oa tl leoswt he de tbrye nt hdeogf rsouws ttahi nt reedn idn corf et ahsi retsede un ryi ne ag rtsh, et h1e9 d9 e0c’ sl i, nt he eonv earsti hx -eype aa sr tpseervi oe nd yNeeawr st o, annPdutbhl ei cpSrcohj eo cotles dt od ee cnlri on lel ma ne dn tt hs iemn irl aerl attoi vteh es tlaabt ei l i1t y9 9f o0r’ st ht oe enaerxl ty f2i v0e0 y0e’ sa. r s , r e t u r n i n g 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 Elementary 4,746 4,644 4,666 4,687 4,747 4,781 Middle 2,644 2,679 2,665 2,614 2,533 2,511 High School 3,945 3,895 3,833 3,848 3,871 3,861 Total 11,335 11,218 11,164 11,149 11,151 11,153 * The projections include a separate methodology for kindergarten based on an adjusted five-year average of previous kindergarten enrollments. Projections Using 5 Year Ratios* Actual Level
Purpose of the Report Tc ohnedEunc rt os lel mn reonl lt mAennatl ypsl iasnRnei np go rt th sr eo ruvgehsoaust tt hh ee by ae sairs, ui npcol un dwi nhgi cthh eN iedwe nt ot inf i Pc autbi ol i nc So cf hpooot el sn t i a l np el aendnsi nf ogr feolre amneynct ha rayn gbeusf fienr tzhoenue ss et oo fbfaalcainl ict ei ees nt rhoaltl mmeanyt baet ns cehc eo sosl sa.rTy hi ni s urpe cpoomr t i na lgs oy egaurisd e s ai nnfdo rhme l tphset ol oindge-nr tainf yg es hf aocr itl-itteyr pml afna nc iilni tgy i nn ewe dh si c. hT hNee we nt roonl lims ceunrt rpernot jl ey cet inognasg ae rde, eaxl st oe nudsiendg tfoo r tbhued ng ee tx tp trwo pe on st ya l ys ef ao rr se. aEcnhr ou lpl mc oemn ti npgr oy jeeacrt. i oAns sa fcot ru at hl ee nnreoxl tl ms cehnot os lbyeecaormaer ek ne mo wb ne dodveedr itnh et h e ce onur or sl lemoef nt th ae nyaelayrs,i sp lraenpnoirnt gt ha us ssusmu pppt ioornt ss adri set rr ei c-te vp al al unantiendg at hnrdoaudgjhuosut et dt h. Te hyee aa rn na nu da l h e l p s t o inform the most effective and responsive decisions possible. The Report I. Esynsrtoelmlm-wenidt eTraennddgsrfaodrethdeisStryisbtuetmio, nEplermojeencttaiorny sa. nd Secondary – an in-depth look at
4
I I . Et oncrooml l mmeonntlPy raosjkeecdt i oqnu eMset itohnosdaabnodu tAtchceu rma ceyt hoofdPorloojgeyc.t i o n s – a n o v e r v i e w a n d a n s w e r s I I I . Ee lnermo lelnmteanr yt ,Hmi si dt odrlye ,–aandd ihsicguhs ssicohno oolf gpraasdt eenc or onlflimg uernatt itor enns d. s f o r t h e d i st r i c t a n d f o r t h e IV. I g n r d ad iv e i . dual School Reports – a detailed review of historical and projected enrollments by V. Swteuldl eans tpEr xe il ti ms ai nnadr Ey netnrtarnacnecse –i ndfaotramoant isotnu df oern tt hme ocbuirl ri teynitnytehaer .p r e v i o u s s c h o o l y e a r , a s V I . Nw ohno - aPrueb el ilci gSi cbhl eo ot ol /aPt rt ievnadt eb Suct haor oe l eEnnr rool ll el md eonuttss i–d de at thae odni sNt rei wc t t aonnds ca ht op or il vaagtee cshc hi l od or el sn. VA IpI p. eCnl adsi cs eSsi zAe tdhar toau. g h E ● Basic demographic information ● Data on preschool students ● Students in the METCO program ● English Language Learners and students receiving special education services ● Current residential properties for sale in Newton and historical property sales ● NNeewwtEonng, ldainscduSscsheodoilnDdeevtealiol ipnmSeencttiCoonuInI cil’s (NESDEC) enrollment projections for ● Elementary school students by district with buffer zones ● Enrollment by high school feeder patterns ● Current elementary, middle and high school district maps ● Projections for enrollment from permitted residential developments
5
ENROLLMENT TRENDS
System-wide Projections Elementary Projections Secondary Projections National, State and Local Trends
Rental Housing Complexes Housing Trends in Newton Trends in Housing Patterns of District Families Real Estate Sales
I. ENROLLMENT TRENDS System-wide Projections Twaebl ll ea s1 parnodj eTc at ibolne s3f odri stphlea yn et hx et fci uv er ryeenat resn. Tr oalbl ml e es n2t af on rd 240p2r5o-v2i6d eb ye ns cr ohlol mo l eanntdhbi syt ogrrya da en,da s pTrhoej egcrtaipohn sbferloomw 1p9r o8v1i-d8e2s taon2o0v3e0r-v3i e1w, boyf s5c0h oyoelaar ns do fbeyngrroal ldme .e n t t r e n d s w i t h d i f f e r e n c e s shown by grade level, as well as five year projections.
Elementary Projections Ts touddaeyn’ st sksi ni ndceer 2g a0r1t2e ,naenndr tohl lemsei xntthocf l 6a s8s7osft fuedwe enrt st hi sa nt h8e0e0l esvt eundtehn ct sl aisns tohfef es wa me re tthi ma ne 9 0 0 p2 0e r1i 2o dt h; kr oi nudg ehr 2g a0 r1t4e ns acwl a sksi ensd he ragvaer bt eene nc l ua ns sdeesr o8f 0903 s4t, u9d5e8n, tas nsdi n9c3e 8t hs et updaenndt es ,mwi ch. i Tc hh ewyeer ae r s tkhi ne dl ae rr gg ea sr tt ekni ncdl aesrsgeasr toef nj ucsl at susneds esri n9c0e0t hs teu md ei dn -t 1s .9E7l 0e ’ms ; e2n0t a1 r0y aenndr o2l0l m1 1e na tl si os ph ra odj el acrt ge ed t o ds teucdr ee na st se. bI ny f1i v0e2 yset ua dr se, notvs e(r-a2l.l1e%l e)mneenx tt ayreyaer n, frrool ml m4e ,n7t4i6s sptruodj eecnttesdt ht oi sr ye et ua rr nt ot o4 4, 6, 74 84 1 skti un dd ee nr gt sa r(t+e0n. 7p%r o fj reoc mt i otnhsi,swy he ai crh) . aPrlee at ys ep irceaflel yr tt oh eS emcot isot nv IaIr fi oa br lfeu ratnhde rc hi na fl ol ernmg ai nt igo tno opnr ot hj eec t . Fp ol eratsheer ee lf ee mr teon St ae rcyt i socnh IoVo, l I pn rdoi vj ei dc tui ao lnSs cbhyo og rl aRdeep ao nr tds . bSyt us dc he on ot laas ns idg no mt heenr tecnhraonl lgme es natpdper toavi el sd, imneStehpotdeomlobgeyr.2015 and in October 2018 are now fully integrated into the projection
6
Aa npdp et hn ed ipxrDe v, iToaubsl et h1r1e el i ss tcsh sotoul dyeenatr se.nTr ho el l mu seen ot fi nb ub fuf ef fre rz ozno ense sh absy bs ec eh no oalnf oe rf f tehc itsi vsec hwoaoyl tyoe a r ab mu f ef el iro zr oa tnee ss phaacvee cboenesnt rua si ne tds bayt tshc eh oeol el ma demn tianri ys t sr caht iooonl st oa ndde tbear lma ni nc ee sc tl ua sdse snitz pe sl a. cSei nmc ee n2t 0 1 1 , bs ceht wo oele, nt hsecyh wo oi ll ls f ionl ltohwe bt huef f sear mz oe nf ee eddi setrr pi cat t. tOe nr nc ea as ps teuedr es ni nt ftrhoamt sac hb ouof fle. rT az ob nl ee 1i s1 pdliascpel da yi sn a edaecvhelboupfefedr. zone and, for more recently created zones, notes the year the zone was Secondary Projections My eiadrdcl eo ms cphaoroel de tnor o2l, l6m7 e0nstt tuhdi es nytesalra shta ys edaerc) l; i nmei dd df rl eo ms c hl aosot lyeenarro(lwl mi tehn 2t ,w6 4a 4s ps truo dj eecnt tesd t thoi s dt oe ci nl icnree at hs ei s nyeexatr y(eaapr ,r oa sj eac tceodh do er tc loi nf ec uorfr 2e 5n tsftiuf tdhe gnrt as )d. eMr si dodvleers9c h0 o0 oslt ue nd reonltl smeenntte irss pmr oi dj edcl et e d sc cl ahsosoe ls, ae nn dt e trhtehna td ae rcel i ns me ianl l ee ar ct hh aonf tt hh ee reexmi t iani gn ignrga df oeu8r yc leaasrsse os ff rt oh me pt rhoej epcrtiioorn ys eaasr g. Irna df iev e6 yt oe at hr si s, my ei da rd. l Ae ss cmh eono tl i eonnreodl lpmr ee nv it oi us spl yr o, aj el tcht eodu gt oh dmeicdrde laes se cbhyo o- 1l 3e 3n rsot ul l md eennt ts i(s- 5p %r o)j eccot me dp taor e d di neccrl ei na es ed oi svt er irc tt hwei df iev, et-hyies ai rs pn root j tehcet i coans de uaet et oa ct hh emcihdadnl eg essc hi no oe ll .eBmi ge enltoawr y i ss cphroooj el cf et ee dd et or pHaigtthersnchsotholaet nwreorlelmimenptlesmurepnatsesdedin4f,a0l0l 020s2tu3d. ents in 2017, but is projected to decline to just u( an dd ee cr r3e, a9s0e0 osf t -u7d0e ns ttus dneenxtts f)a. lBl . yC 2u 0r r3e0n- t3 21 0, a2 5n ehti gdhe csrcehaosoel oefn-r8o4l l m( - 2e %n t ) dheicglhi nsecdh of rool ms t luads et ny tesa r if si veexypeeacrt se,dNfor or tmh it sh ipsr yoej eacrt. eNdotrot hd iesc pl i nr oej ebcyt e- 4d%t o( d- 7e6c rsetausdee bn yt sa) , l wa rhgiel er aS mo uotuhni ts tphraonj eScot eudt ht;oi n dd ee cc rl ienaes e( - b7 y6 -s0t u. 4d%e n(t-s8, os tru-d4e%n )t ,s w) . hNiel ex tS yo euat hr , iNs oprrtohj ei sc tperdo jt eocgt er od wt o( h+ a2 v6es at undeennrtosl, l omre1n%t ) . T h e dh ii gf fhe er er necner oi nl l me nernotl lamt eNnotrbt he;t wt hei se nd itfhf eertewn oc ehiisg hp rsocjheoc ot el sd itsocbuer r1e4n7t l ys t 2u 1d 5e nsttsu idne fnatlsl , 2w0i3t h0 , again with higher enrollment at North. National, State and Local Trends Tc ohme pt aabr li es obne ldoi ws t rsihc ot swosv tehr et hs tea mt uos sot fr pe rc ee snct hl yo ao vl at hi lraobul eg ht i mg r ea dpee r1i 2o dd i(spt lrei ac ts ee nnroot lel mt heant t tshfios r c2h0a2r5t -d2i6s pe lnaryosl lemn er onltl md aetnat pduabt al i cf ol yr) l. aTsht isscchhoaorlt yael as or bi necclauudsees tehnersotlal mt eehnat sc nh oa nt gy ee st rf reol ema stehde pr ar ni ogri ns gc hf roooml y+e 5a r%. Ctoom- 3p%a r; i Ns oenwdt oi snt rsi ac tws saadwe celni nr eo lol mf e- 1n%t c. hCaonmg epsa rf reodmt ot hper ep- rpi aonr ds ec mh oi oc ,l y e a r Nraenwgteofnr’osmen+r7o%llmtoen-1t 8h%as.declined by -9%, while comparison districts have changes that
7
Six Year* PK-12 Enrollment Change in Surrounding Districts
2024-25 Enrollment
6 Year Change
6 Year % Change
2023-24 Enrollment
2019-20 Enrollment
1 Year Change
1 Year % Change
District Arlington Belmont Brookline Burlington Cambridge
2% 1% 0% 0%
1% -5% 0% -1% -2% -6% -10%
6,113 4,448 7,023 3,510 7,027 6,748 5,297
5,997 4,424 7,039 3,525 6,915 2,699 6,805 5,303 5,541 5,709 2,717 2,745 4,101 2,036 11,752
6,047 4,700 7,777 3,509 7,091 2,736 7,190 5,529 5,706 5,738 2,663 2,707 4,862 2,039
116
66
24
-252 -754
-16 -15 112 -31 -57
1
2% -1% -1% 0% -1% -1% 1% 5% -2% -3% 1%
-64 -68
Dedham 2,668
-442 -232 -213
Lexington
-4% -4% -9% 1% 7% 0%
Natick
-6
Needham 5,493
-48
Newton
11,632
12,779 -120
-1,147
Waltham 5,777 Watertown 2,844
68
39
127 -44
181
-6
Wayland Wellesley
2,701 3,986 2,063
-18%
-115
-876
1%
Weston
27
24
Massachusetts DESE School Profile Enrollment as of October 1, 2024
Ta nhde tsht ai st ed oe fc lMi naes si sa cphr ou jseectttes dh taos csoe ne nt i na u- e3 %t h reonurgohl l m2 0e3n1t d( -e7c.l2i n%e dc oe mc l ipnaer pe dr otjoe csti ex dy ebayrtshaegUo S, Ds eeepeanr trmo lel mn teonft Egdr ouwc atthi of nr ofmo r tMh ea spsrai oc hr uyseeatrt so)f. +I n0 .f1a%l l 2(0+2947 3( lsatsut dyeenatrs) ,sht aotwe we vi edre,)t. h e s t a t e d i d Residential Housing Complexes Ts pheecriea la pr ee rmmaint , yi nn ec wo nrset rsui dcet inotni a, lodr ei nv eel ao rpl my oe cnct ucpoamnpc lye ax se so if nf ac ll ul 2d 0e d2 6i n. Tt hhee ps er oi nj eccl tui do en s , w i t h a (organized by the first year of occupancy): ● 20 Kinmonth Road with 24 units (phasing in occupancy) ● Awliltéhe2o0n4thueniCtsha(prlheass(ifnogrmineorclycu1p5aRnicvye)rdale Avenue (Residences on the Charles)) ● 39 Herrick Road with 9 units (phasing in occupancy) ● 15-21 Lexington Street with 24 units (phasing in occupancy) ● 1114 Beacon Street with 34 units (phasing in occupancy) ● 383 Boylston Street/50 Jackson Street with 12 units (phasing in occupancy) ● Newton Crossing (previously Dunstan East) with 292 units (phasing in occupancy) ● 106 River Street with 9 units (phasing in occupancy) ● 1149-1151 Walnut Street with 25 units (phasing in occupancy) ● 136-144 Hancock Street with 16 units (in construction) ● 967 Washington Street with 28 units (special permit approved) ● Aaprmproorvye(d1)135-1137 Washington Street) with 43 units (comprehensive permit ● 78 Crafts Street with 307 units (comprehensive permit approved) *Because of the impact on enrollment of COVID during 2020-21, this table calculates enrollment change from 2019-20 (pre-COVID).
8
● Northland on Needham and Oak Streets with 800 units (special permit approved) ● Northland Charlemont with 370 units (comprehensive permit approved) ● Riverside Station with 753 units (special permit approved) ● 1314 Washington Street with 50 units (special permit approved) ● 528 Boylston Street with 184 units (comprehensive permit approved) Ef i sv tei -my ea at er se fnorrofl ul mt uernet spt ur odjeenc tt i eonnrso. lAl mt oetnatl forfo2m9 2t heel edme veenl toapr my secnht so oa lbsotvued ae rnet si ,n1c 2l u2dme di di dn l teh e sc cohmopollesxteusdhe anvt se, ba enedn1d3i0s thr ii bg hu tsecdh ao corl osst su dt heen tf si v(ea- yger aa rn dp rtoojteacl toi of n5s4 a4ms toundgesnt tasl)l fsrcohmo otlhs eesxec e p t froers iMd eenmt ioarl i da le- vS eplaouplmd ienngt, sUinndtehrewi rodoids ,t rainc dt s W. Tahreds,ewahdidc iht ihoanvseanr eo pl ahragsee nd ei wn t oo rt hpee npdr oi nj egc t i o n s oi t vs eprl af inv ne eyde ac or sm, apsl es ut imo ni ndga tt he a. Tt he ae csht adret vdeal ot ep fmo re npthraesai nc hg ei ns fsut lul doecnc ut spfarnocmy aw ni tehwi n df ei vvee lyoepamr seonft idsi sdpelpa ey ne dd ei nn tAopnp tehned fi ixr sEt , yTeaabrl eo f1o4c. cAuf pt earn fci yv ef oyre tahr es , di te ivse al os ps umme en dt ; tthhaets ae l fl i sr tsut dy ee na rt ss farroem a np er owj edcet ivoenl omp me t eh no td ho al ovgeyb, ea en nd isnt cuodrepnot rs aat reed ni no t loo nt hgee rc omhaonr ut as ul l yr vai vd adlerda tt ioo tshuet ipl irzoej de citni otnhse f r o m that development. Newton Public Schools includes estimates for future student enrollment in its five-year enrollment projections only for projects that have received special permits, comprehensive permits, or building permits. Ai n tAa bp lpeetnhdaitx sEh, oTwa sb lteh e1 4c .aAl ccut luaat il oenn roof lel ms t ei mn ta ot ef dNteowt at ol snt uP du ebnl itcs Sf cohr oeoalcshs pt ur do ej enctts ciannl abreg feoru n d dAepvpeelnodpimx eEn, tTsaabnled1th5e. accuracy of the projections for these developments are displayed in Ad epvpeelno dp imx eEn, tTaatb vl ea r1i4o uc so ns tsaogl iedsaitne st hi ne fCoirtmy ao tf i No ne wa bt oonu.t Tehxei sitni nf ogr, mp eartmi oint toe nd , parnodj epcltasntna et uds a n d nDue mp abret mr oefnut naint sd bi sy ctuy rpree hn at sa sb eoef nD epcr ee mp abreerd 2i n0 2c5o.nIst ui sl t ai mt i op no rwt ai nt ht tNoenwottoent’ hs aPtl aens tni mi n ag t e s rpel al antni ni ng gt oa ps pi zreo av na ldpnruo mc ebs es ,r wo fh ui cnhi tcsatny pc hi caanl lgye cthhaenpgreoaj es cttheed pnruomj ebc et rp or of gs rt ue sdseenst st hf rr oo umg ha t h e dNeevwetloonpmPuebnlti.c Schools, in collaboration with the City of Newton Executive, Public Buildings, ag ne nd ePr laatni onni nf go rDleopc aa rl trme sei nd tesn, tui pa ldda et evde l iot ps mmeent ht oi nd oNl oo vg ey mu sbeedr 2i n0 t1h8e. Tc ahl ec us ltautdi oenn to gf es nt uedr ae tni to n ra antdi ows eursee db apsrei do rotno tNh oe veexmp ebrei re n2c0e1 o8 f bayc tNu ea wl sttound Pe nu tb el i nc rSocl hl mo oe lns t of rr iogmi n at ht ee dt hi nr eteh el aer ag relsyt 2 0 0 0 s rCehsei sdtennut ti aHl icl ol , ma npdl eAx er bs oi nr pNoei nwt t aotnWb uo iol td al at nt dh aStt at itmi oen: . AAvda el ot ani lNe edwdteosnc rHi pi gt iholna nodf st ,hAe vcaul rorne n t mTheet hcoudrroelongt ymies tahvoadi loalbolgeyi ni s At hpep erensdui xlt Eofina nt hien -FdAeQp tshercet ivoine.w t ha t wa s sup p ort e d b y e xp e rt resources, including: ● Review of residential development in other Massachusetts communities ● Review of student generation rates in West Hartford, CT ● Apaptptelircnastioonf foafmPiulibeslicinUNseewMtiocnrowdiattha sScahmooplleag(PeUcMhiSld)rdeanta to understand housing 9
● Demographics-based enrollment projections ● Fs cohr otohle- M a t g h u e r n e c i e c h i i l p l a d a r r g l e e fi n s n t i a n r n e r c s e i i a s d l i e d i n m e t n p ia c a l e c r t a e r m n e t o a s d h l e c o l o w in m n g m i nu tnhi tei et as bi nl e Nbeewl otwo n. Sattutdhei ns tpeoni nr ot , l ltmh ee nn tusmhbaevres o f bo ve ec or aml lenfeati rdl ye csrteaabsl ee ao tf tt hh ei rstee ec no ms tpuldeexne st s, wf rho imc hl aws et ryee abru. iTl thi ins tyheea re,asrlliyg h2t0l y0 0u’ns ;dtehrehr ea l ifsoaf nt h e st ht ui rdde antttseantdt hh ei gthh sr ec he ocoolm. Tphl ee xr ee sa ar er ea el sl eo m2 5e nsttaurdyesnttusdreens ti sd, i na gf i if nt ht ha tetseencdommipdlde lxee ss cwh oh oo l ,a ar en d a et hnar no l tl he de pi ne rpcrei vn at at eg es cohf osot ul d( 1e0n%t s or ef sai ldl isnt gu di ne nr et ss iidnetnhtei as el ccoommppl leexxeess )a,nwd haitcthe ni sd si nl igg hptrl iyv ah ti eg h e r school in Newton as a whole (9% for the current year, as explained in Section VI). Enrollment at Newton's Largest Rental Housing Complexes (2025-26)
Avalon at Newton Highlands (294 Units)
Avalon at Chestnut Hill (204 Units)
Arborpoint at Woodland Station (180 Units)
Complex
% by Level
Year Built
2000
2002
2004
Countryside
Bowen
Peirce Williams
Districted Schools*
Zervas
Mem-Spaulding
In District
53
34
20
Elementary Enrollment
47%
Out-of-assigned District
0
0
1
In District
15
13
10
Middle School Enrollment
20%
Out-of-assigned District
6
1
1
In District
35
28
10
High School Enrollment
33%
Out-of-assigned District
0
2
0
Total Enrollment
109 111
78 87 -9 13
42 44 -2
229 242 -13
Prior Year Total (2024-25) Change from Prior Year Private School Students
-2
7
5
25
Housing Trends in Newton Tb ehfeo traebtlheebme looswt rsehcoewn st et hn er oalml moeunntt garnodwdt hi s pt rei br iuotdi obne og af nh o( u2 s0i0n3g - t0y4p, eFsYi0n4N) eawn dt ocno mi n pt ah reeys e a r tohf fei sc ee , ht oh ue sgi rnegattyeps te sc ht oa nt hg eo sdeuar vi nagi l at hbilse tiinmNe ei wn tNoenwt toodna’ ys . hAocucsoirndgi ns tgotcok thhaesCbi teye nA sasne si ns oc rr e’ sa s e or ef s2u, 3l t9o4f cboont hd oc mo ni nv ieur ms i opnrso op fe er txi iesst ,i nwghpi crho pi se rgtrioe ws st hu cohf a6 s9 t%w. oC- oonrdtohmr ei en -i fuammsi lhy ahvoemb ee se n( wt hhei c h ht yapvees dheacvr ee abseeedn stihnec emFoYs0t 4s )t aabsl ewseel lg ams ennet wo fctohnes ht rouucst ii no gn sotro ac dk di ni t iNo enws . tSoinn gdlue rfianmg itlhy i sh opme rei o d . * Districted schools listed are elementary schools. Student assignment at elementary school determines middle school and high school assignment. Students attend out-of-assigned district schools for a variety of reasons including educational needs, family relocation within Newton, changes in school district boundaries, or buffer zones.
10
City of Newton Housing Types
# Change
% Change
Housing Type
FY04 % of Total in FY04 FY26 % of Total in FY26
Single Family Condominium Two Family Three Family
16,885
69% 14% 13%
16,947
65%
62 0.4%
3,489 3,224
5,883 2,490
23% 2,394 69%
10%
-734 -23% -56 -18% -17 -10% -70 -24%
308 176 296
1% 1% 1%
252 159 226
1% 1% 1%
Apartment Buildings
Mixed Use
TOTAL PROPERTIES 24,378 Source: Newton Assessor's Office
100% 25,957
100% 1,579 6%
Trends in Housing Patterns of District Families Ts thuedreenht sa.vAe caclos rodbi ne ge nt os hGief tosgirna pt hhei chIonuf os irnmgapt iaot nt eSr ny ss toe fmf as md ai lti ae st hwaitt hmNa tecwh et os nNPeuwbtloi cn Ssct hu od oe lnst ab du di l rdei ns sgess t tood ha yo ut hs ianng i tny 2p 0e s0, 2maonrde fsetwu de er ns tt su da re en tl isvai nr eg li inv icnogn idno smi ni ng il ue mf asmainl yd oarptawr tom/ tehnrte e ff ar ommi l y7 3h %o mt eos6. T4 %h e, pwehricl ee nt ht aegree ohfasscbheoeonl cahni lidnrcer ne al si vei nf rgo imn s5i%n g tl oe f1a4m%i l yi nhtohme epse hr caesndt ea cg lei noef d ss ct uhdoeonl tcsh li il vdirnegn i lni vci onng di no mc oi nniduommsi nt oi ud ma ys .c To mh i ps ar reepdr et soe2n0t s0 2a . rTeha el ri ne chr ae sa sael soof boeveenr 1a n, 0 0i n0c r e a s e i2n0 t2h5e. Sp teur dc ee nn tt as gaer eo fs lsi tguhdt el yn lt es sl si vl ii nk ge l iyn t ao pl ai vr et mi ne nt wt so, wo ri t thh 2r e%e fi na m2 i0l y0 2h oc omme ps ai nr e2d0 t2o5 7; %a s it nh e pdreecvreioausesdta. ble shows, the number of two and three family homes in Newton has also
Newton Public School Children by Housing Type*
% of Resident Students
% of Resident Students
Change #
Change %
Type of Housing
2002
2025
Single Family
7,777 1,671
73% 16%
6,984 1,310 1,560
64% 12%
-793 -10% -361 -22% 497 198% -94 -24%
Two/Three Family
Condominiums
526 251 389
5% 2% 4%
14% 1,034 197%
Apartment Buildings Mixed Use / Other
748 295
7% 3%
Total
10,614
100% 10,897
100% 283
3%
* Preschool - Grade 12 Source: Newton Geographic Information Systems
Real Estate Sales Ap rcoc op redr ti ny gs at ol e ds ai nt acoa bl et na idnaerdyferaorm2 0C 2i t5y (otfhNr oe uwgtho nO cr et oc bo er dr s3, 1t h, 2e 0r e2 5h )a vv ee rbseuesn987681i nr e2s0i d2e4n. t i a l Ca so mo f bDi ne ec ed mwbi tehr t2h0e2 n5 u; mp l be ae sr eo sf eheo Tmaebsl ec u9r irne nAtpl yp ea nd dv ei xr tBi sfeodr fdoert sa ai llse) ,i nh oNme we ts oa nl e (s 1i 4n 82 h0 o2 m5 e s ap pe pn ed ai nr gt os abl ee jaut stthsel i tgi hmt el yt hh iagt htehre tdh aa tna 2w0a2s4c (opl ll ee catseedn) .oCt ea ltehnadt at rh iyse ma ra2y 0o2m1 i ht ahdo mt hees ht ihgaht easrt e
11
neluemmbeenrtaorfyhsocmhoeosladleisstirnictth. e past 20 years. Appendix B, Table 8 shows home sale data by Ab yd ds ci thi oo no al ldiins tf or ircmt iant iNo ne wi st opnr oavsi do ef dD ei nc eTma bbleer 92 o0 f2 A5 p; apte tnhdi si xt iBmwe ,i tthh eprreo pweerrtei e1s 4l i8s tperdo pf oerr tsiaelse lFi os tret dy - ff oi vres pa leer ci ne nNt eowf tt oh ne . pArtoap es irmt i ei lsa rc ut irmr eenltal ys t l iyset ae rd, ft oh re rsea lwe ei nr eN7e5wpt or on paerret isei sn gl ilset ef admf oi lry s a l e . hF oo rmt ye -ss, ewv iet nh pmeor sc te no tf tohf et shee hpor mo peesr (t 6i e3s%f o or fs tahl ee al irset ecdo nh do oms e, sw) i ht ha v5i 2n%g f oi vf et ho or sme oc roen bd eo ds rhoaovmi nsg. fdoi us trr bi cet di sr oaol smo spor ro vmi do er de . iTnhteh idsi st at rbi lbeuftoi or nr ebf ye rteynpcee o. Ff op rr oepx ea rmt yp loen, itnh et hme aFrrkaentkbl iyn sscchhooooll ds ci shtoroi cl td, 1i s0t r0i%c t , o2f0p%r oopfepr trioeps el ri st ti ee sd ffoorr ssaallee aarree ssiinnggllee ffaammiillyy, h6 o0m%easr, ewchoi nl edionmt hi nei uCma bso, ta n d 20% are multi-family.
12
TABLE 1 PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY SCHOOL 2026-27 TO 2030-31 Actual
Projections Using 5 Year Average Ratios**
SP*
School Angier Bowen
FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31
381 336 336 378 368 299 342 355 310 356 245 251 202 198 389 462 698 830 654
379 327 333 353 364 272 331 348 301 356 256 241 198 191 394 518 690 846 625
379 331 329 363 376 263 327 354 296 339 273 245 201 204 386 497 716 814 638
388 331 318 354 396 265 324 343 279 337 283 246 215 217 391 520 716 773 605
376 337 316 364 421 266 325 348 282 341 299 243 205 241 383 484 712 733 604
375 338 310 361 444 267 336 341 291 339 288 243 220 255 373 495 691 738 587
Burr
Cabot
Countryside
Franklin
Horace Mann Lincoln-Eliot Mason-Rice
Memorial-Spaulding
Peirce
Underwood
Ward
Williams Zervas Bigelow Brown
TOTAL ELEMENTARY
(0)
4,746 4,644 4,666 4,687 4,747 4,781
Day
Oak Hill
TOTAL MIDDLE Newton North Newton South
(0)
2,644 2,679 2,665 2,614 2,533 2,511 2,080 2,004 1,974 1,977 2,016 2,004 1,865 1,891 1,859 1,871 1,855 1,857 3,945 3,895 3,833 3,848 3,871 3,861
(29)
(2)
TOTAL HIGH SCHOOL
(31)
GRAND TOTAL (31) 11,335 11,218 11,164 11,149 11,151 11,153 *Enrollment numbers and projections include students who receive special education services beyond grade 12. **Adjusted five-year averages of previous kindergarten enrollments are used to project kindergarten enrollment.
13
Newton Public Schools Enrollment History and Projections by School 1979 to 2028
TABLE 2
Peak Enroll Peak Year 1981* 1982* 1983* 1984* 1985* 1986* 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993* 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 752 1953 400 375 384 413 412 419 409 410 439 436 441 469 428 430 430 436 423 433 412 418 412 396 371 363 370 502 2013 300 291 283 312 348 350 364 366 403 413 426 428 410 414 421 410 409 390 377 383 351 336 335 375 386 496 1967 236 229 211 204 210 238 249 260 304 299 302 323 275 294 287 292 273 256 278 270 294 300 303 314 314 539 1967 410 351 342 336 337 362 362 387 424 449 470 473 443 431 420 417 412 393 385 362 360 352 353 357 391
School Name
Angier Bowen
Burr
Cabot
Carr
401 1963 420 1960 352 1961 345 1955
Claflin
Countryside
557 1959 347 316 303 379 394 418 436 451 458 474 500 497 461 477 446 449 469 493 499 482 453 455 446 448 463
Davis
Emerson Franklin Hamilton
601 1961 399 394 388 345 338 334 331 347 364 382 361 360 332 350 346 366 379 407 389 390 398 384 397 386 385
222 1960
Horace Mann
434 2014 301 287 261 268 258 249 276 287 299 323 318 324 285 288 294 282 273 297 301 303 313 330 333 337 344
Hyde
669 1952 314 310 301
Lincoln-Eliot Mason-Rice
435 1970 308 269 237 246 242 239 250 249 285 316 338 352 293 306 333 345 321 325 285 281 252 220 242 229 282 620 1962 349 321 286 418 402 419 419 423 436 459 475 486 395 417 405 397 395 412 393 364 369 364 352 365 372
Memorial
536 1953
Memorial-Spaulding Oak Hill Elementary
486 1992 301 284 264 372 382 401 415 418 445 449 452 486 426 469 477 454 452 448 462 452 417 440 447 427 419
450 1962 268 230 207
Peirce
429 1960 355 302 290 291 266 253 253 267 282 283 272 292 270 270 259 250 281 282 271 281 270 271 271 286 306
Spaulding Underwood
587 1961
582 1970 328 293 308 291 292 264 280 277 283 303 310 302 295 311 283 285 282 267 278 264 276 294 276 275 264 506 1971 302 278 258 286 279 312 325 354 351 372 378 386 330 342 366 360 335 319 343 325 304 281 274 262 262 375 1969 214 209 213 223 221 219 216 238 244 255 284 302 271 261 254 288 269 260 258 241 257 260 254 264 275 434 2019 227 209 213 278 281 258 266 273 280 290 320 325 302 303 288 287 287 311 281 281 276 287 284 287 300
Ward
Williams
Zervas (formerly Beethoven) Peabody (Special Education) Total Elem
5,359 4,948 4,749 4,662 4,662 4,735 4,851 5,007 5,297 5,503 5,647 5,805 5,216 5,363 5,309 5,318 5,260 5,293 5,212 5,097 5,002 4,970 4,938 4,975 5,133
Change
-431 -411 -199 -87
0 73 116 156 290 206 144 158 -589 147 -54
9 -58 33 -81 -115 -95 -32 -32 37 158
% Change
-7.4% -7.7% -4.0% -1.8% 0.0% 1.6% 2.4% 3.2% 5.8% 3.9% 2.6% 2.8% -10.1% 2.8% -1.0% 0.2% -1.1% 0.6% -1.5% -2.2% -1.9% -0.6% -0.6% 0.7% 3.2% 17 17 17 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
Total # Elem Schools
Bigelow 534 567 590 612 522 483 446 465 477 513 520 510 496 Brown (formerly Meadowbrook) 1,024 1964 636 654 615 600 597 570 548 557 528 508 628 689 989 940 945 974 645 749 771 752 735 756 770 787 705 Day 999 2019 774 847 652 604 654 709 684 680 730 797 772 770 755 794 808 856 823 804 804 835 855 822 785 758 768 Oak Hill Middle 639 2016 572 578 619 620 621 597 598 565 565 Warren 1,270 1969 606 419 Weeks 1,033 1960 Total Middle School 2,498 2,457 1,692 1,554 1,419 1,279 1,232 1,237 1,258 1,305 1,400 1,459 2,278 2,301 2,343 2,442 2,562 2,614 2,640 2,672 2,688 2,688 2,673 2,620 2,534 Change -513 -41 -765 -138 -135 -140 -47 5 21 47 95 59 819 23 42 99 120 52 26 32 16 0 -15 -53 -86 % Change -17.0% -1.6% -31.1% -8.2% -8.7% -9.9% -3.7% 0.4% 1.7% 3.7% 7.3% 4.2% 56.1% 1.0% 1.8% 4.2% 4.9% 2.0% 1.0% 1.2% 0.6% 0.0% -0.6% -2.0% -3.3% Total # Middle Schools 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 612 1996 482 537 425 350 168
North South
2,976 1972 2,275 2,075 2,659 2,540 2,390 2,195 1,983 1,771 1,617 1,589 1,623 1,691 1,757 1,765 1,808 1,867 1,911 2,019 2,123 2,144 2,190 2,219 2,169 2,121 2,047 1,983 2019 1,503 1,418 1,311 1,298 1,229 1,226 1,174 1,127 1,104 1,091 1,058 1,055 1,109 1,142 1,220 1,223 1,211 1,240 1,273 1,333 1,370 1,399 1,487 1,552 1,701 3,778 3,493 3,970 3,838 3,619 3,421 3,157 2,898 2,721 2,680 2,681 2,746 2,866 2,907 3,028 3,090 3,122 3,259 3,396 3,477 3,560 3,618 3,656 3,673 3,748
Total High School
Change
153 -285 477 -132 -219 -198 -264 -259 -177 -41
1 65 120 41 121 62 32 137 137 81 83 58 38 17 75
% Change
4.2% -7.5% 13.7% -3.3% -5.7% -5.5% -7.7% -8.2% -6.1% -1.5% 0.0% 2.4% 4.4% 1.4% 4.2% 2.0% 1.0% 4.4% 4.2% 2.4% 2.4% 1.6% 1.1% 0.5% 2.0%
Grand Total
11,635 10,898 10,411 10,054 9,700 9,435 9,240 9,142 9,276 9,488 9,728 10,010 10,360 10,571 10,680 10,850 10,944 11,166 11,248 11,246 11,250 11,276 11,267 11,268 11,415 -791 -737 -487 -357 -354 -265 -195 -98 134 212 240 282 350 211 109 170 94 222 82 -2 4 26 -9 1 147 -6.4% -6.3% -4.5% -3.4% -3.5% -2.7% -2.1% -1.1% 1.5% 2.3% 2.5% 2.9% 3.5% 2.0% 1.0% 1.6% 0.9% 2.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% -0.1% 0.0% 1.3%
Change
% Change
* Asterisk denotes change in grade pattern and/or school consolidation.
Newton Public Schools Enrollment History and Projections by School 1979 to 2028
TABLE 2
Projected
Peak Enroll
Peak Year
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 379 401 392 389 375 395 408 417 402 409 421 467 503 502 428 423 376 384 383 381 379 379 388 376 375 413 428 435 454 449 448 477 502 475 449 417 421 397 372 342 345 360 355 325 336 327 331 331 337 338 333 331 369 379 391 409 415 424 424 412 402 386 384 366 339 355 368 355 350 336 333 329 318 316 310 420 424 425 449 452 440 420 419 418 403 400 391 386 393 379 412 442 428 414 378 353 363 354 364 361
School Name
Angier Bowen
752 1953 502 2013 496 1967 539 1967 401 1963 420 1960 557 1959 352 1961 345 1955 601 1961 222 1960 434 2014 669 1952 435 1970 620 1962 536 1953 486 1992 450 1962 429 1960 587 1961 582 1970 506 1971 375 1969 434 2019
Burr
Cabot
Carr
Claflin
Countryside
437 447 479 472 499 490 479 457 466 450 436 410 413 413 369 371 372 360 369 368 364 376 396 421 444
Davis
Emerson Franklin Hamilton
414 401 396 402 397 401 396 389 413 424 446 434 427 413 379 402 363 349 320 299 272 263 265 266 267
Horace Mann
350 348 370 371 373 386 394 427 434 412 417 404 399 391 377 369 357 360 351 342 331 327 324 325 336
Hyde
Lincoln-Eliot Mason-Rice
281 293 284 291 293 317 322 329 337 340 346 374 365 362 353 314 338 328 336 355 348 354 343 348 341 372 410 422 428 442 437 438 457 478 492 507 512 487 446 366 337 332 334 321 310 301 296 279 282 291
Memorial
Memorial-Spaulding Oak Hill Elementary
443 449 442 438 459 458 464 429 434 452 454 453 464 465 404 395 397 369 342 356 356 339 337 341 339
Peirce
324 329 338 329 318 316 337 312 306 314 299 276 271 284 238 238 241 236 249 245 256 273 283 299 288
Spaulding Underwood
288 295 282 262 282 289 310 327 341 326 313 284 290 269 225 221 221 242 253 251 241 245 246 243 243 237 247 260 260 269 278 301 289 304 304 313 309 296 255 216 211 194 212 186 202 198 201 215 205 220 295 281 276 277 298 302 304 304 292 290 293 296 278 261 246 225 231 215 211 198 191 204 217 241 255 332 324 328 326 349 321 325 317 309 308 337 407 427 434 394 423 406 399 399 389 394 386 391 383 373 5,318 5,408 5,498 5,527 5,646 5,687 5,790 5,799 5,833 5,785 5,801 5,824 5,787 5,626 5,055 5,041 4,998 4,926 4,809 4,746 4,644 4,666 4,687 4,747 4,781 185 90 90 29 119 41 103 9 34 -48 16 23 -37 -161 -571 -14 -43 -72 -117 -63 -102 22 21 60 34 3.6% 1.7% 1.7% 0.5% 2.2% 0.7% 1.8% 0.2% 0.6% -0.8% 0.3% 0.4% -0.6% -2.8% -10.1% -0.3% -0.9% -1.4% -2.4% -1.3% -2.1% 0.5% 0.5% 1.3% 0.7% 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 495 487 505 527 523 533 531 525 504 509 525 521 501 494 506 465 445 425 448 462 518 497 520 484 495 665 644 681 684 666 677 698 743 738 780 774 753 744 778 794 759 750 732 713 698 690 716 716 712 691 747 764 747 773 758 845 874 947 932 927 922 980 976 999 959 941 920 868 860 830 846 814 773 733 738 567 558 547 572 603 612 616 634 632 602 639 614 630 632 647 661 657 648 649 654 625 638 605 604 587 2,474 2,453 2,480 2,556 2,550 2,667 2,719 2,849 2,806 2,818 2,860 2,868 2,851 2,903 2,906 2,826 2,772 2,673 2,670 2,644 2,679 2,665 2,614 2,533 2,511 -60 -21 27 76 -6 117 52 130 -43 12 42 8 -17 52 3 -80 -54 -99 -3 -26 35 -14 -51 -81 -22 -2.4% -0.8% 1.1% 3.1% -0.2% 4.6% 1.9% 4.8% -1.5% 0.4% 1.5% 0.3% -0.6% 1.8% 0.1% -2.8% -1.9% -3.6% -0.1% -1.0% 1.3% -0.5% -1.9% -3.1% -0.9% 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 1,964 1,911 1,829 1,802 1,871 1,877 1,940 2,015 2,060 2,107 2,145 2,165 2,136 2,099 2,080 2,107 2,110 2,135 2,117 2,080 2,004 1,974 1,977 2,016 2,004 1,745 1,784 1,763 1,722 1,708 1,691 1,721 1,778 1,804 1,798 1,851 1,893 1,911 1,983 1,869 1,836 1,837 1,862 1,898 1,865 1,891 1,859 1,871 1,855 1,857 3,709 3,695 3,592 3,524 3,579 3,568 3,661 3,793 3,864 3,905 3,996 4,058 4,047 4,082 3,949 3,943 3,947 3,997 4,015 3,945 3,895 3,833 3,848 3,871 3,861 -39 -14 -103 -68 55 -11 93 132 71 41 91 62 -11 35 -133 -6 4 50 18 -70 -50 -62 15 23 -10 -1.0% -0.4% -2.8% -1.9% 1.6% -0.3% 2.6% 3.6% 1.9% 1.1% 2.3% 1.6% -0.3% 0.9% -3.3% -0.2% 0.1% 1.3% 0.5% -1.7% -1.3% -1.6% 0.4% 0.6% -0.3% 11,501 11,556 11,570 11,607 11,775 11,922 12,170 12,441 12,503 12,508 12,657 12,750 12,685 12,611 11,910 11,810 11,717 11,596 11,494 11,335 11,218 11,164 11,149 11,151 11,153 86 55 14 37 168 147 248 271 62 5 149 93 -65 -74 -701 -100 -93 -121 -102 -159 -117 -54 -15 2 2 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 1.4% 1.2% 2.1% 2.2% 0.5% 0.0% 1.2% 0.7% -0.5% -0.6% -5.6% -0.8% -0.8% -1.0% -0.9% -1.4% -1.0% -0.5% -0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Ward
Williams
Zervas (formerly Beethoven) Peabody (Special Education) Total Elem Change % Change Total # Elem Schools
Bigelow 612 1996 Brown (formerly Meadowbrook) 1,024 1964 Day 999 2019 Oak Hill Middle 639 2016 Warren 1,270 1969 Weeks 1,033 1960 Total Middle School Change % Change Total # Middle Schools
North South
2,976 1972 1,983 2019
Total High School Change % Change Grand Total Change % Change
* Asterisk denotes change in grade pattern and/or school consolidation.
Page 1 Page 2 Page 3 Page 4 Page 5 Page 6 Page 7 Page 8 Page 9 Page 10 Page 11 Page 12 Page 13 Page 14 Page 15 Page 16 Page 17 Page 18 Page 19 Page 20 Page 21 Page 22-23 Page 24-25 Page 26 Page 27 Page 28-29 Page 30-31 Page 32 Page 33 Page 34 Page 35 Page 36 Page 37 Page 38 Page 39 Page 40-41 Page 42 Page 43 Page 44-45 Page 46 Page 47 Page 48 Page 49 Page 50 Page 51 Page 52-53 Page 54 Page 55 Page 56 Page 57 Page 58 Page 59 Page 60 Page 61 Page 62 Page 63 Page 64 Page 65 Page 66 Page 67 Page 68 Page 69 Page 70 Page 71 Page 72 Page 73 Page 74 Page 75 Page 76 Page 77 Page 78 Page 79 Page 80 Page 81 Page 82 Page 83 Page 84 Page 85 Page 86 Page 87 Page 88 Page 89 Page 90 Page 91 Page 92 Page 93 Page 94 Page 95 Page 96 Page 97 Page 98 Page 99 Page 100 Page 101 Page 102 Page 103 Page 104 Page 105 Page 106 Page 107 Page 108 Page 109 Page 110 Page 111 Page 112 Page 113 Page 114 Page 115 Page 116 Page 117 Page 118 Page 119 Page 120 Page 121 Page 122 Page 123 Page 124 Page 125 Page 126-127 Page 128 Page 129 Page 130 Page 131 Page 132-133 Page 134-135 Page 136 Page 137 Page 138-139 Page 140-141 Page 142-143 Page 144-145 Page 146 Page 147 Page 148 Page 149 Page 150 Page 151 Page 152 Page 153 Page 154-155 Page 156-157 Page 158-159 Page 160-161 Page 162-163 Page 164-165 Page 166-167 Page 168-169 Page 170-171 Page 172-173 Page 174-175 Page 176-177 Page 178-179 Page 180-181 Page 182-183 Page 184-185 Page 186-187Made with FlippingBook interactive PDF creator