Newton Public Schools Digital Budget Book FY2025
A nEanl yrsoilsl mR ee np to r t 2024-2025 to 2029-2030
February 2025 N e1w0t0o nWPaul nbul itc SStcr he eoto l s Newton, MA 02460
Anna Nolin Superintendent
Katy Hogue Chief of Data and Research
Acknowledgements: Liam Hurley, Assistant Superintendent/Chief Financial & Administrative Officer McKenna Bush, Manager of Data Analytics Janelle Sutherland, Business Operations Coordinator
Thao (Tracy) Chau, Scheduler/Data Analyst, Newton South Meghan Smith, Scheduler/Data Analyst, Newton North
TABLE OF CONTENTS
SECTION
PAGE
Introduction and Overview
1-5
I.
Enrollment Trends System-wide Projections Elementary Projections Secondary Projections National, State and Local Trends
6-18
Rental Housing Complexes Housing Trends in Newton Trends in Housing Patterns of District Families Real Estate Sales
II.
Enrollment Projection Method Kindergarten Projection Methodology
19-31
NESDEC Comparison Accuracy of Projections Frequently Asked Questions
III.
Enrollment History Grade-by-Grade Analysis A Comparison to Peak Enrollment Years
32-34
IV.
Individual School Reports
35-77
V.
Student Exits and Entrances
78-87 88-94 Coming Soon 95-138
VI.
Non-Public/Private School Students
VII.
Class Size Data
Appendices
A. Student Population Detail B. Residential Property Data C. NESDEC’s Enrollment Projections vs. Newton’s D. School Districts and Buffer Zones E. Residential Development
LIST OF TABLES TABLE
PAGE
1. Projected Enrollments by School 2025-26 to 2029-30
13
2. Enrollment History and Projections by School 1980-81 to 2029-30 3. Projected Enrollments by Grade 2025-2026 to 2029-30 4. Enrollment History and Projections by Grade 1980-81 to 2029-30 5. Comparison of Projected with Actual 2023-24 and 2024-25 Enrollment 6. Actual and Projected Enrollments by School 2024-2025 7. Actual and Projected K-12 Enrollments 2019-20 to 2029-30
14-15
16
17-18
25
26-27
28 33 34 81 82 82 83 84 86 87 87 92 93 94
8. Enrollments by Grade 2023-24 and 2024-25 9. Historical Cohort Survival Ratios by Grade 10. Exiting Elementary School Students 2023-24 11. Exiting Middle School Students 2023-24 12. Exiting High School Students 2023-24 13. Total Student Exits 2021-22 through 2023-24
14. History of Exits to Non-Public Schools 2017-18 to 2024-25
15. Entering Elementary School Students 2023-24 and 2024-25 as of October 1, 2024 16. Entering Middle School Students 2023-24 and 2024-25 as of October 1, 2024 17. Entering High School Students 2023-24 and 2024-25 as of October 1, 2024
18. Non-Public/Private School Students by Grade (2024 Census) 19. Non-Public/Private School by School (2024 Census) 20. Special Education Students Tuitioned-Out (2024 Census) 21. Average Class Sizes for all Grade Levels – 10 Years
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
22. Percent of Classes with 25 or More and with Fewer than 20 Students 23. Elem School Enrollment Statistics & Distribution of Class Sizes October 1, 2024 23b. Utilization of Core Instructional Space (Elementary Schools) 2024-2025
24. Distribution of Class Sizes All Middle Schools 2024-25
24a. Average Team Sizes & Teacher Ratios (Middle Schools) Oct 2024 24b. Utilization of Core Instructional Space (Middle Schools) 2024-2025 25. Distribution of Class Sizes and Average Class Sizes (High Schools) 2024-25 26. Average Class Sizes by Curriculum Level (High Schools) 2024-25 27. Total Enrollment and Class Size Distribution by Curriculum Level 2024-25 28. Total Student Enrollment for 5 Academic Areas by Curriculum Level 2025-26
29. High School Classes with 25 or More Students 2024-25
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
30. North High School Course Enrollment by Subject and Course 2024-25 31. South High School Course Enrollment by Subject and Course 2024-25
32. Departmental Enrollments: North 33. Departmental Enrollments: South
34. Projected Future Class Sizes for 5 Academic Areas: North 35. Projected Future Class Sizes for 5 Academic Areas: South
36. Classroom Utilization: North 37. Classroom Utilization: South
APPENDICES
Appendix A – Student Population Detail
PAGE
1. Student Demographics 2. Preschool Students
95-98
99
3. METCO Enrollment by School and Grade 4. English Language Learners Enrollment
100 101 103
5. English Language Learners Enrollment by Language 6. Students Receiving Special Education Services
104-105
7. Number of Non-resident Students
106
Appendix B – Residential Property Data
8. Residential Property Sales by Elementary District 9. Properties Listed for Sale in Newton by Elementary District
107 108
Appendix C – NESDEC Enrollment Projections
10. NESDEC’s Enrollment Projections vs. Newton’s
109
Appendix D – School Districts and Buffer Zones
11. Elementary Students by District with Buffer Zones 12. Total Enrollment by High School Feeder Patterns 13. Current Elementary, Middle and High School District Maps
110-112
113
114-116
Appendix E – Residential Development
Proposed Residential Development Projections: FAQs
117-121 122-132 133-138
14. Estimated Enrollment of Existing and Proposed Residential Development
15. Actual Enrollment for Existing Complexes
INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW
Enrollment Analysis Report 2024 INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW Td ehcer Ne aeswe toofn1P0u2bsl ti cu dS ce hn ot so, los rK--01. 29 %e n, rf rool lmm el anstt wy eaas r1. 1T,h4i9s 4e ns truodl lemnet sn to nd eOc cl itnoeb ewra1s , p2r0o2j e4c, tae d : ee nn rr oo ll ll mm ee nn tt wo f a1s1p, 5r o2 j2e. cTt ehdi st ios dt he ce l isne ev e- 0n .t6h%y e(a- 7r 4o fs at uddeecnl itns )e firno emn rl aosl ltmy ee na rt if no rNae pwrtooj ne .c Tt ehde shtoawt ee hv ea rs , at lhseo setxapt ee roi ve enrcaeldl eaxnpeenr ireonl lcme de nat sdl iegchl itni en corf e-a4s%e isnt aetnerwo il dl me ef rnot mt h si se vy ee na ryceoamr spaagroe;d t o lDaes pt ay retamr e( +n 0t .o1f%E )d. uTchaet i torne ni sdporfoej encrtoi nl l gmaenn te nd reoc ll il nmee inst edxepcel icnt ee do tf o- 5c.o5n%t i nn ua et i;otnhwe iUdSe f r o m 2N0e 2w2t -o2n0’ s3 1p ,r ao nj edc tai no nesn froorl l nmeexnt tyde ea cr l ii nn de i oc af t- e7 . a2 %d e icnl i nMeaisns ae cnhr uo sl lemt tesnot voefr9t8h es tsuadme en ttsi mt oe 1p1e, r3i 9o 6d . (aar ed pe cr loi jneec toef d- 0t o. 9 d%e )c. l iTnhei sb yd e- 0c l. i9n%e i(s- 4r e2l as tt iuvdeel yn tcso)n, ms i si dt ednl et as cc rhoososl sl eavreel sp. rEol jeemc teendt at or yd secchl ionoel sb y -p0r.o9j%e c t(i-o2n5 ms teutdheondtos l)o, ga yn dt hhi si gyhe sacrhf oo ol l loswa sr et hper ot yj epci tceadl ct oo hdoerctl isnuer vbiyv a- 0l .r8a%t i o( -m3 1e t shtouddoelnotgsy) . T h e ue xt icl li uz edde db yg iNv ee nw tt ho en lPa ur gb el i ci mS cpha oc to lt sh, aat l tt hh oe upgahn tdheem2i 0c 2h0a de no rno ol l umr eennt rcool lhmo er tn st ui nr v2i v0 a2l0r, aatni ods t ahree cl ionhgoe rr ti nsgu revnirvoalll mr aet ni ot si mb yp saccht so of rl of mo r tthhee pKa-nt od-e1mainc d. T5h- e6 pc roohjoe rcttsi ohna vmeebt he oe nd oaldo jguys ti se dd ebsacsrei db eodn iTnhme courerrdeenttafiilvien- yt heea rEennrrool llml meennt tTprreonjdesc tsi eocntsi othnr. o u gh 20 29- 30 s h o w o ve ra l l d i s t ri c t ek ni nrdo el lrmg ae rntte dn eccl lai ns seessi na reeapc hr oyj ee catre, da st ol aer ng et er rc. lAa ss si enspgrri ao dr uy ae taer sg, rtahdee c1u2r raenndt fsimv ea-lyl eera r edne rvoelllomp emnet nptrso(jpe lcetai osne ss ei necAl updpeesntduidx eEn tf os rpdr oe jteaci lteedd itnof oe rnmr oaltl iforno)m. p e r m i t t e d r e s i d e n t i a l Te lheims iesnttha er yf i pf trho cj eocnt si oenc us toi vv ee ry tehaer no ef xkti nf idveer yg ea ar tr es na se nt hr oe lslemsemn at lul enrd ceor h8o0r0t s, wo fhsi ct uh di emnpt sa c t s t h e pa vr oe rgar ge es s7t1h6r osut ug dh etnhtes eol ve emr et nh tea nr ye xgtr af idv ee sy. eEavresn, ctohhoourgthgpr or owj et hc t(eeds pk ei nc di ael rl yg ai nr t fei nr sct l aa ns sde ss e c o n d gc or ahdoer st s) ba ne tdwpereonj e7c6t e0dt oa d8d8i 1t i os nt uadl es nt ut sd ei nn tgsr fardoems 1n et hwr or eusgi hd e5not ivael rdtehvee nl oepxmt fei vn et syreeasrus l. tBi ne c a u s e o7 f0 t3h ki si nc do ehrograt rgt reonws tt hu daenndt sp ri so pj ercot jeedc tneedwt os tgurdoewn tt so f8r 2o m1 sdt ue dv ee lnotps mb ye nf at sl l, t2h0i 2s 9y ewa hr ’esnc lt ahsi ss colfa s s iAssindefisfctrhibgeraddien. prior year reports, resident births in 2019 were relatively smaller than t6y0p8i ci anl t(h5e8 f0i vbei rytehasrcsoamf t pe ra)r.eTdhtios as mn aa vl l ee rr anguemo bf 7e r2 7o fi nr etshi de ef invtebyi retahrss rpersi uo lrt ea dn di na an a v e r a g e o f kf ai lnl dwe ar sg a7r0t e3 ns tpurdo ej enct tsi o( 6n 3f osrt uf adlel n2t0s 2o4v oe rf 6p 4r o0 j es tcut idoenn) t. sT; haicst ue na lr ok li lnmd ee nr gt ar retseunl tes ni rnoal l mb i er tnht - tt ho i- s kp iansdt e2r0g ay retaerns . rTa ht ieo yoef a1r. s2 1o ,f wk ihnidc he rigs al ratregne re nt hr oa nl l ma ne yn to ct hl oesre btior tohr- toov- ekri n9d0e0r gs at ur tdeenn rt sa t(ifoa liln t h e 2010-2016) had birth-to-kindergarten ratios ranging from 1.06 to 1.16. While there was an 1
Enrollment Analysis Report 2024 innucmr ebaesre oi nf hhoommee ssaal leess, ii nn dNi ceawt itno gn tdhuart i tnhget lhaer g2e0r2t1h ay ne aprr, or ej eccetne td ykei anrdsehr ga av ret se enecnl aas lsoiws ed ru e t o ah ol amr ge esranl eusmi nb eprr ioofrmy eoavres- iannsdt/hoarnrNe ne wt atl os )n. Ah al tsh eoxupgehrNi ePnSc ecdo lilne crtescde anttayoena risn (cpoomt ei nngt i a l l y f r o m ke ai nc dh eyregaarr, t iennf os rt umdaet ni ot ns ionnt ht hei se al ar rl yg ewr i tnht ae nr opfr eo aj eccht eyde akri nadnedr ag na ratl ey nz ecsl at shse wc iat ys nc eont sauvsa idl aa bt al ef o r u( Knitni ldleart ge asrpt reinn gP raonj de cstui omnmMeert, haos df ao ml o igl yi e)sf oe rn rmo ol l reed dt he teai ri l sc hoinl dtrheenn. Pu lme abseer ss eoef Sbei rctthi os na nI Id h o w tDhiisstrdiacttwa iisdeu,tNiliezwedtotno’spreolejemcet nktianrdyeregnarrotlelmn eenntroisllpmreonjet.cted to be 4,817 students in fall 2029, we l eh mi c he ni st a8r ys teundreonl ltms me not ries tphraonj etcht iesdyteoa rd’ es cel li en me ienn tt ha reyneenx rt ot lwl mo eyneta (r0s ,%e ncrhoal nl mg ee)n. tWi shpi lreo j e c t e d tpor iimn carreya fsaec bt oarcsk tthoa Ft Yi m2 5p al ec vt ee lns roovl lemr et hn et croe nmt ar ii bnui nt eg tt oh rtehei sy: et ha ressiinz et hoef tphreo ji encctoi omni .nTgh r e e ko ivnedr ea rl lgealretme ne nc ltaasrsy, et hner os li lzme eonf tt hi se poruotjgeoc itne gd ftiof t sht agbr ai ldi zee col avsesr, tahned nceoxht of ri vt eg ryoewa rt sh, . tAhlitsh o u g h ss tcahboiol ilzsaat ri oe np irso nj eoctt ec od nt soi ssteeengt raocwr ot shs oi vnedri vt ihdeuna el xe tl ef mi v ee nyteaarrys s, cwhhoioc lhs .i sS omma ei nel yl e dmueenttoa rnye w a n d aFno tri ct hi peaftoeudrrt he syi de ae rn ti ina la dreovwe,l ompimd delnet ss cihnotohlossseadwi sat rdi cetcsl ionre ci onheonrrtogl lrmo we nt ht .t h i s f a l l , a l t h o u g h tshe ee sdae cdl ei nc el i nweaisnvceorhy osrmt sailzl e( -f3r osmt u dg er andt se) 5a nt od gi rt awdaes 6p, raosj es ct ut edde n( -t 1s lset auvdee nf ot r) . pTryi vpai ct ae l ml y ,i dNdPl Se spcohs os oi bl .l eF ot hr at th set us edceonnt ds wy ehaor wi no au lrdo wh a, vt he el ecfot hNoPr St af oc rt uparl il vy agt reeswc hf or oo ml i ng rgarda ed e5 6t ol egf rt adduer i6n. gI tt ihse pMaindddel emsicch, ot houl ss acrhea np gr oi nj egcttheed ttyopdi ceacll icnoehnoerxt tpyaet taerr(n- 2a5g asitnu dt heins tfsa)l,l .a s t h e i n c o m i n g s i x t h g r a d e ci nl acsrse ai ss es smi anl ltehre t nhea xnt tyheeaor uotfgtohien gp reoi gj ehctthi ognr ,aadse tchlea si ns .cMo mi didnlge gsrcahdoeo l6ecnorhool lrmt iesnltatrhgeenr t h a n t h e ot hurtegeo iynega rg sr aodf et h8e cporhooj er tc. t Ti ohne. nO mv ei rd dt hl ee sf icvheo- oy le ea nr rporlol mj e ec nt i to ins, pmr iodj de cl et esdc ht oo odl eecnl irnoel l omveenr tt hi se l a s t p2 0r o2j9e .c Lt ei kdet oe l de me cel inntea rbyy s1c5h4o os tl su, dael tnht os u( g- 6h%t h) i, sf rdoemc l i2n, 6e 7i s0 ps rt uo jdeecnt et sd tdoids at ryi cttow2i ,d5e1, 6i t sitsundoetn t s i n c5o0n0s- i5s2t e0nstt au cdreonstss mo vi de dr lteh sec nh eoxotl sf i. vBei gyeelaorws bi se pc ar uo jseec ot ef dt ht eo ci nh carnegaes ei ni ne leenmr eo nl l tma reyn ts ct oh oaor lo fuenedd e r pd ae tctreeransse tihnaet nbreogl al mn ei nn tf.aPl ll e2a0s2e3n, owt he i tl eh at th tehoet hd ee rc lti hn reeien me ni dr od ll lemsec nh to op lrso aj ercet epdr oaj te cDtaeyd itsoa l s o dHui geht os cthhoeocl heannrgoel l mi n eenl et mg reenwt atrhyi ss cf ahlol , owl fi et he daenr i pn ac rt teearsnes otfh1a 8t bs et ug da ne ni nt s f farlol m2 0l2a 3s t, ayse ai nr t. eNnedxet d . ye ne ar or ,l lgmr aednet si s1 p1 raonj edc 1t e2datroe dpercorjeeac st ee db tyo3b1e sot uv edre n1 t, 0s 0( 0- 0s. 8t u%d)e, natss tbhuet ctuort rael nhti gghr asdc he o1o2l c o h o r t ae tn 1r o, 0l l0m0esnt tu idsepnrtos j iesc rt ee dp l taoc ec do nbtyi naugertaod de e9c lcionhe oi rnt fba el ll o2w0 2965a0nsdt uf adlel n2t0s2. 7H iagsht shcehcooohl o r t s o v e r 1b ,e0g0i n0 tsot usdeeensttsa gb ri lai dt yu sattaer at inndg ai nr ef ar lel p2l 0a c2e8d, wwiitthh esnmr aollllemr egnr ta da reo9u nc odh3o, r8t4s 0. Tsht ue dhei ng ht s s. c h o o l s 2
Enrollment Analysis Report 2024 Ts thuedreenwt seirne O7 c6t4o bEenrg 2l i 0s h2 3L.eOa fr nt heer (7E6L4) EsLt us dt ehni st sy ei na rO, c5t0o6b earr e2 0e l2e4mceonmt aprayr setdu tdoe n8 t3s9( E1 L1 % o f t h e esilmemileanr ttaorlyasptoypeualra.tion) and 258 are secondary students (4% of the secondary population), Tr ehme apienrecde nc ot angsei sot ef ns tt uwd iet nh t lsa rs et cyeei avri nagt s1p8e%c i. aIlf epdr ue sc ca ht iooonl sset ur vdiec ne st st ha ri se si nc hc louodl eyde ai nr ht haes t o t a l , tyheearpaetrc1e8n%ta(gceoomf pstaurdedenttos1r9ec%eilvaisntgysepaerc).ial education services is slightly lower than last Ss tpuedcei anlt es dbuacsaetdi oonn stthued Oe nc tt so be enrr o2l0l e2d4 iSnt uo ud te-notf -Sdeirsvt ri ci cets sRpeepc ioarlt e, wd uhci ac ht i oi nncsl uc hd oe os l9s 0t ootuatl o1 f0 9 dT ihset rNi cet wp tl ao cneEmaer nl yt sC ahni ldd h1o9oadg rPereomg reanmt s(. NT Eh Ci sPi)s eandr eocl lreeda s1e7 o3 f p4r es tsuc hd oe no lt sc hf ri ol dmr el na sitnyienat re.g r a t e d et yapr li yc acl hl yi l idnhcor oe adscelsa sdsurroi on mg tshoer cionutrhseer oa fp tehuet iyc esaerr. vTi chees parse os cf hOocot ol mb eorv1e, d2 i0n2t o4 ; t ehne ri ro lnl me we n t b fu u t i u ld re in . g at 687 Watertown Street in January 2023 and has capacity for expansion in the Iunncdl ue dr i1n1g, 8p0r 0e sscthuodoelnat ns .dSoe uc tt ipolna cVe do ns tSutduednetns t, tEhxei tds i as tnrdi cEt ’ns tfrual nl Pc eKs- 1a n2 d+ Ae nprpoel nl md iexnAt toont a l s j u s t SsptuedcieanltePdoupcuatlaiotniosntuDdeetanitl pcoonptualiantiaodnds.itional information on preschool and outplaced Te nhri so lrl empeonr tt sdceot ma i lpsacrhe adntgoetshien Feenbrroul lamr ye n2 t0s2b4y psrcohj oe oc tl i soinnsc, ea lnads tpyreoaj er .c It ts reenvrioe lwl ms ec nu trsr euns ti n g as adljeuss, tne edwf i vdee-vyeelaorp hmi setnotrsi,csatluddaetna t cmo nosbi idl iet rye, db iirnt ht hdea ct ao,ncteenx st uosf dl oactaal, throeunsdi sn gi nt rr ee na ld es s, taantde oa st htehre fParcet ol irms .i nAacrtyuEa ln2ro0l2l m4-e2n5t eRnerpool lrmt fernotms pNroevs eenmtbe de rin20t h2i4s. re p o rt h a ve re m a i n e d t h e s a me Te nhreodl lims ter ni ctts haams or en cgednitsl tyr ii cmt ps lcehmo oe lnst ea ds ftiwr sot pA hn agsi ee rs aonf ds t Zuedrevnats aosps iegnnemd ,efnotl lcohwa endg ebsyt Co abbaol at ni nc e 22 00 11 95 , aenadc hOwc tiot hb eerx2p0a 1n 8d eadr ee nn roowl l mf uel lnyt i cnat pe ga rcai ttye.dTihnet soet hc he apnrgoej es ,c at ipopnr mo veetdh oi nd oS leopgtye. m b e r Future Enrollment Th ihset ot ryipc iacl adl actoahyoiretl ds us rt vhiev aplr roaj et icot imo nest hf oord og rl oa gdye so 1f etnhrroolul mg he n1 t2 p, ar lot jheoc ut igohn si t uhsai ns gb ef ievne -aydejaurs t e d au gs ae isna t fhoi us ry-eyaera rt oa ov emr iat g2e0o2f 0d ba et ac af ruos me o2f 0t 2h 4e , i 2m0p2a3c, t 2s 0o2f 2t h, 2e 0C2O1V) I. DT-h1i 9s spaamn de eamd ji uc s(taendd i n s t e a d ma dedt iht oi odno, l tohgey aodmj ui st tt iendg f 2i v0e2- 0y ewa ra sc oa hl soor tu ss ue dr vfiovra lt hr ea tpi or so jwe cetri eo na sl s oo f at dh jeu ps taesdt tf ho rr et eh ey e a r s . I n kd ii ns tdrei crtg tarret ne nd -st of o- gr rtahde es e1 ccoohhoorrt ts at nh adt tahpepgeraard teof ibvee a- t ol i -nsgi xe rcionhgoi rmt pbaeccta ou fs et hoef pt ha en ds he mi f ti ci n. T h e s e adjusted cohort survival ratios were increased slightly to reflect the shift in enrollment 3
Enrollment Analysis Report 2024 pd ae tt taei lr)n. sT ho be skei rnvdeedr gl aasr tt eyne aprr ao nj edc ttihoins sy he aa rv ei nb teheens ec acl oc uh loarttesd( pu lsei na sgeasne ae dSj eucsttieodn tIhI rf eoer - my eoarre awvi et hr aag et hor fe pe -ryeevai or ,ufso ku irn- ydeear rg,aor rt ef ni v ee n- yreoal lrmaevne trsa. gKei nmdeetrhgoadr ot el ongpyrsoijneccet i o2 n0 s1 4h ;a pv rei ob re et on 2m0a1d4e, cmi teyt hc oe nd soul os gdyaftoar wk ai ns duet ri lgi za er tde fno or ckci un rdreerdg abretceanu ps er ocjiet cy t ci oe nn ss .uTs hdea st ah ibf te tgoa nt hper ao vdeurcai gneg ka ni ndd 2e 0r g2a2r)t ef onr pkrionjde ec rt igoanrst et nh ai st wu seerde tt ho ios lyoewa .r A, sni ma di l jaurs tt oe dr et cher ne et -yyeeaarrs .a Sv ee er aSgeec t( i2o0n2I4I , f 2o 0r 2m3o, r e information and discussion of the full methodology used in this year’s projection. Tenhreotlalmbleenbt.elow shows the projections for the next five years, as well as the current year’s
TP uh be lfi oc l Sl oc wh oi no gl s g, frraopmh i1s9a7 r5e tpor e2s0e2n4t ,aat isown eolfl ma sopr er otjheac nt i o4n5syfer ao rms of af l el n2 r0o2l 5l mt he nr ot ui ng ht h2e0N2 9e w. Tt ho en go rf aspt ahbiillliut ys t, rf oa tl leoswt he de tbrye nt hdeogf rsouws ttahi nt reedn idn corf et ahsi retsede un ryi ne ag rtsh, et h1e9d9 e0c’ sl i, nt he eonv earsti hx -eype aa sr tpsei xr i o d yenearorsll,manedntthsiempirlaorjetcotethdedleactlein1e9f9o0r’sthtoe neaerxltyfi2v0e0y0e’sa.rs, returning Newton Public Schools to
Purpose of the Report Tc ohnedEunc rt os lel mn reonl lt mAennatl ypsl iasnRnei np go rt th sr eo ruvgehsoaust tt hh ee by ae sairs, ui npcol un dwi nhgi cthh eN iedwe nt ot inf i Pc autbi ol i nc So cf hpooot el sn t i a l 4
Enrollment Analysis Report 2024 np el aendnsi nf ogr feolre amneynct ha rayn gbeusf fienr tzhoenue ss et oo fbfaalcainl ict ei ees nt rhoaltl mmeanyt baet ns cehc eo sosl sa.rTy hi ni s urpe cpoomr t i na lgs oy egaurisd e s ai nnfdo rhme l tphset ol oindge-nr tainf yg es hf aocr itl-itteyr pml afna nc iilni tgy i nn ewe dh si c. hT hNee we nt roonl lims ceunrt rpernot jl ey cet inognasg ae rde, eaxl st oe nudsiendg tfoo r tbhued ng ee tx tp trwo pe on st ya l ys ef ao rr se. aEcnhr ou lpl mc oemn ti npgr oy jeeacrt. i oAns sa fcot ru at hl ee nnreoxl tl ms cehnot os lbyeecaormaer ek ne mo wb ne dodveedr itnh et h e ce onur or sl lemoef nt th ae nyaelayrs,i sp lraenpnoirnt gt ha us ssusmu pppt ioornt ss adri set rr ei c-te vp al al unantiendg at hnrdoaudgjhuosut et dt h. Te hyee aa rn na nu da l h e l p s t o inform the most effective and responsive decisions possible. The Report I. Esynsrtoelmlm-wenidt eTraennddgsrfaodrethdeisStryisbtuetmio, nEplermojeencttaiorny sa. nd Secondary – an in-depth look at I I . Et oncrooml l mmeonntlPy raosjkeecdt i oqnu eMset itohnosdaabnodu tAtchceu rma ceyt hoofdPorloojgeyc.t i o n s – a n o v e r v i e w a n d a n s w e r s I I I . Ee lnermo lelnmteanr yt ,Hmi si dt odrlye ,–aandd ihsicguhs ssicohno oolf gpraasdt eenc or onlflimg uernatt itor enns d. s f o r t h e d i st r i c t a n d f o r t h e I V . Idni sdtirviibduutai ol nS cs hi no colluRdeepdofrot rs p– l aa ndneitnagi l epdu rrpe ov si eews tion calsusde isnsgetnhreool lrme tei cnat l ccal pa as sc ri toyo (mp l e a s e n o t e that these are not staffing patterns). V. Swteuldl eans tpEr xe il ti ms ai nnadr Ey netnrtarnacnecse –i ndfaotramoant isotnu df oern tt hme ocbuirl ri teynitnytehaer .p r e v i o u s s c h o o l y e a r , a s V I . Nw ohno - aPrueb el ilci gSi cbhl eo ot ol /aPt rt ievnadt eb Suct haor oe l eEnnr rool ll el md eonuttss i–d de at thae odni sNt rei wc t t aonnds ca ht op or il vaagtee cshc hi l od or el sn. VA IpI p. eCnl adsi cs eSsi zAe tdhar toau. g h E ● Basic demographic information ● Data on preschool students ● Students in the METCO program ● English Language Learners and students receiving special education services ● Current residential properties for sale in Newton and historical property sales ● NNeewwtEonng, ldainscduSscsheodoilnDdeevtealiol pinmSeencttiCoonuInI cil’s (NESDEC) enrollment projections for ● Elementary school students by district with buffer zones ● Enrollment by high school feeder patterns ● Current elementary, middle and high school district maps ● Projections for enrollment from permitted residential developments
5
ENROLLMENT TRENDS
System-wide Projections Elementary Projections Secondary Projections National, State and Local Trends
Rental Housing Complexes Housing Trends in Newton Trends in Housing Patterns of District Families Real Estate Sales
Enrollment Analysis Report 2024
I. ENROLLMENT TRENDS System-wide Projections Twaebl ll ea s1 parnodj eTc at ibolne s3f odri stphlea yn et hx et fci uv er ryeenat resn. Tr oalbl ml e es n2t af on rd 240p2r4o-v2i5d eb ye ns cr ohlol mo l eanntdhbi syt ogrrya da en,da s pT rhoej egcrtaipohn sbferloomw 1p9r o7v9i-d8e0s taon2o0v2e9r-v3i e0w, boyf saclhmooosl ta5n0d ybeyagr rs aodf ee. n r o l l m e n t t r e n d s w i t h de li ef fme reennt caer sy sshc oh wo onl bi sy pgrroaj de ce t leedv et ol , fai sr swt ed lel cal si nf ei vaenyde tahr epnr oi nj ec cr teiaosnes, . wOhv iel re tmh ei dndel ex ts fcihv oe oyl eaanr ds , high school are projected to decrease (with one year of increase for middle school).
Elementary Projections Ts touddaeyn’ st sksi ni ndceer 2g a0r1t2e ,naenndr tohl lemf iefnt ht oc lfa7s0s 3o fs tf euwd eenr ttshiasnt h8e0 0t esnttuhdcelna tsss ionf tfhe ewsearmt heatni m9 e0 0p e r i o d . Twhhei cyhe wa resr 2e 0t 1h 2e lt ahrrgoeusgt hk i2n0d1e4r gs aa rwt ekni nc dl aesrsgeasr st ei nnc ce l at hs es ems iodf - 91 39 47 ,09’ s5; 82, 0a1n0d a9n3d8 2s 0t u1d1eanl tsso, h a d lt aor dg ee ckrienadseer bg ya r4t e2 ns tcul adsesnetss o( f- 0j u. 9s %t u)nndeexrt 9y0e 0a rs, tfur do me n 4t s, 8. E0 l9e ms t eund teanrtys et nh ri so lyl emaer nt to i 4s , p7 r6o7j e c t e d ss tt uu dd ee nn tt ss . (I0n. 2f i%v ef yr oe ma r st ,hoi sv ey reaalrl )e. lPelme aesnet ar reyf eerntrooSl lemc tei no tn i IsI pf or or jfeucrttehde rt oi nr feot rumr na tt ioo 4n , 8o 1n 7t h e kF ionrdtehreg ea lret emne pn rt ao rj eycst ci ohnoso, l wp hr oi cj he cat ri oe nt sy pb iyc aglrl aydt eh ea nmdobs yt vs ac rhioaobll ea na dn do tchhearl leennrgoi nl l gmteonpt rdoej teacitl.s , please refer to Section IV, Individual School Reports. Student assignment changes approved 6
Enrollment Analysis Report 2024 imneStehpotdeomlobgeyr.2015 and in October 2018 are now fully integrated into the projection Aa npdp et hn ed ipxrDe v, iToaubsl et h1r1e el i ss tcsh sotoul dyeenatr se.nTr ho el l mu seen ot fi nb ub fuf ef fre rz ozno ense sh absy bs ec eh no oalnf oe rf f tehc itsi vsec hwoaoyl tyoe a r ab mu f ef el iro zr oa tnee ss phaacvee cboenesnt rua si ne tds bayt tshc eh oeol el ma demn tianri ys t sr caht iooonl st oa ndde tbear lma ni nc ee sc tl ua sdse snitz pe sl a. cSei nmc ee n2t 0 1 1 , bs ceht wo oele, nt hsecyh wo oi ll ls f ionl ltohwe bt huef f sear mz oe nf ee eddi setrr pi cat t. tOe nr nc ea as ps teuedr es ni nt ftrhoamt sac hb ouof fle. rT az ob nl ee 1i s1 pdliascpel da yi sn a edaecvhelboupfefedr. zone and, for more recently created zones, notes the year the zone was Secondary Projections Mt hiids dyleeasrcchoomo lpeanr er odl ltmo e2n, 6t 7t 3h isst yu edaern ht sa sl ads te cylei na re)d; ms l iigdhdtlley sf cr oh mo o ll aesnt ryoel al mr (ewn ti twh a2s, 6p7r0o jsetcutde de nt tos rdeemc raeians set ianb fl eo ut hr ios f ytehaer f (i vdee cylei na er soof f1t hs teupdreonj te)c. tMi oind da lse gsrcahdoeo6l ecnl arsosl el ms ee nn tt ei sr tphraotj eacrtee ds mt oa l l e r ti sh apnr ot jheec teexdi tti on gd eg cr ar edaes 8e bc lya s- 1s e5s4 f sr toumd et hn et s p(r- i6o%r y) ec aorm. Ipna frievde tyoe at hr si s, my ei ad rd. l Ae ss cmheonotl i eo nn reodl l m e n t pn roet vt ihoeu cs al ys ,eaal ttheoaucghhmmi di dddl el es sc chhooool . l Be ingreol ol l wm ei sn pt ri so pj ercot jeedc tteodi nt oc rdeeacslei noev de ri stthr iec tf iwv ei d- ye e, tahr i s i s pberogjiencntiinognidnufealtlo2t0h2e3c.hanges in elementary school feeder patterns that were put in place Ht oi g4h, 0s0c0h os toul deennr tosl lnmeexnt tf aslul .rCpua rs rs ee nd t 42, 000204 shtiugdhesncthsoi onl 2e0n1r o7 l al mn de ni st gprreowj e cf rt eodmt ol a rs et my eaai nr (cal on s e ienxcpreecatseed of fr o+m1 8t hs ti us dy ee na tr s. )T. hBi ys 2d 0e c2r9e-a3s0e, ias nr ee tl adt ievcer leya cs oe nosf i s- 1t e7n2t (a- c4r%o s) shtihg eh hs icghho socl hs ot uodl se: n t s i s Nb yo r9t1h si st updreonj et sc t(e- d5 %t o) di ne cfri ve ea syee ba rys8. N1 es xt ut dy ee na rt s, N( -o4r%t h) ,i swphriol ej eScot eudt ht oi s hparvoej eacnt eedn rt oo ldl me cerneta s e dT ehcel idnief f e( -r4e6n cset ui dn eenntrso, lol mr -e2n%t )b, ewt wh iel ee nS ot huet ht wi sophr iogj he cstcehdotool sg irso cwu r( +r e1n5t lsyt u2d1e9nst tsu, do re n0t. 8s ,%w)i. t h hagigahinerweinthrohlilmgheenrteantrNololmrthe;ntthaitsNdiofrfethre. nce is projected to be 229 students in fall 2029, National, State and Local Trends Tc ohme pt aabr li es obne ldoiws t rsihc ot swosv tehr et hs teamt uos sot frpe rc ee sncthsoi xo-lyteharro tuigmhegpr ea rdieo d1 2( pdl iesat sr ei c nt oe nt er ot hl lamt ewnht si l ef otrh i s tcaobml ep tayr pi ni cgacl luyr rdei snpt leany rs of li lvme -eynetatrot er ennr od lsl ,mt he ins t ydeuarri ni tgdtihs pe l2a 0y 2s 0s i- x2-1y es ac hr ot roel nydesa rt od auve otiod Cs aOwV IeDn)r. oTl lhmi se cnht acrht aanl sgoe si nf rcol umd el as set nyreoal rl mr aenngt i cnhgafnr go ems +f r5o%m tl oa s-t3y%e a; rN. eCwo mt o pn asrai swo na dd iesctlri incet so f -c1o %m .pCa or ims opna rdei ds t troi c st si xhyaevaer sa af igvoe, yNeeawr tcohna’ ns geen trho al ltmr ea nn tg ehsa sf rdo emc l +i n7e%d bt oy --198%%, w. h i l e
7
Enrollment Analysis Report 2024
Six Year* PK-12 Enrollment Change in Surrounding Districts
2024-25 Enrollment
6 Year Change
6 Year % Change
2023-24 Enrollment
2019-20 Enrollment
1 Year Change
1 Year % Change
District Arlington Belmont Brookline Burlington Cambridge
2% 1% 0% 0%
1% -5% 0% -1% -2% -6% -10%
116
66
6,113 4,448 7,023 3,510 7,027 6,748 5,297
5,997 4,424 7,039 3,525 6,915 2,699 6,805 5,303 5,541 5,709 2,717 2,745 4,101 2,036 11,752
6,047 4,700 7,777 3,509 7,091 2,736 7,190 5,529 5,706 5,738 2,663 2,707 4,862 2,039
24
-252 -754
-16 -15 112 -31 -57
1
2% -1% -1% 0% -1% -1% 1% 5% -2% -3% 1%
-64 -68
Dedham 2,668
-442 -232 -213
Lexington
-4% -4% -9% 1% 7% 0%
Natick
-6
Needham 5,493
-48
-1,147
Newton
11,632
12,779 -120
68
39
Waltham 5,777 Watertown 2,844
127 -44
181
-6
Wayland Wellesley
2,701 3,986 2,063
-18%
-115
-876
1%
27
24
Weston
Massachusetts DESE School Profile Enrollment as of October 1, 2024
Ta nhde tsht ai st ed oe fc lMi naes si sa cphr ou jseectttes dh taos csoe ne nt i na u- e3 %t h reonurgohl l m2 0e3n1t d( -e7c.l2i n%e dc oe mc l ipnaer pe dr otjoe csti ex dy ebayrtshaegUo S, De nerpoal rl mt me ennt tgor of wE dt hu cf ar ot imo nt hf oer pMr iaosrs ya ce ha ru soef t+t s0). .1T%h i(s+f9a7l l3, hsot uwdeevnetrs, tsht aet es twa it de ed)i. d s e e Residential Housing Complexes Ts pheecriea la pr ee rmmai nt , yi nn ec wo nrset rs ui dc et inotni a, lodr ei nv eel ao rpl my oe cnct ucpo amnpc lye. x Te sh ei ns ec l iundcel ud di ne (t oh regpa rnoi zj eecdt iboyn st h, we if ti rhs at year of occupancy): ● 429 Cherry Street with 14 units (phasing in occupancy) ● 6oc8cLuopsanAcnyg)eles Street (previously 182 California Street) with 20 units (phasing in ● 429 Cherry Street with 14 units (phasing in occupancy) ● 20 Kinmonth Road with 24 units (phasing in occupancy) ● Awliltéhe2o0n4thueniCtsha(prlheass(ifnogrmineorclycu1p5aRnicvye)rdale Avenue (Residences on the Charles)) ● 39 Herrick Road with 9 units (phasing in occupancy) ● 15-21 Lexington Street with 24 units (phasing in occupancy) ● 1114 Beacon Street with 34 units (phasing in occupancy) ● 383 Boylston Street/50 Jackson Street with 12 units (in construction) ● 136-144 Hancock Street with 16 units (special permit approved) *Because of the impact on enrollment of COVID during 2020-21, this table calculates enrollment change from 2019-20 (pre-COVID).
8
Enrollment Analysis Report 2024 ● Newton Crossing (previously Dunstan East) with 292 units (in construction) ● 106 River Street with 9 units (in construction) ● 1149-1151 Walnut Street with 25 units (special permit approved) ● 967 Washington Street with 28 units (special permit approved) ● Aaprmproorvye(d1)135-1137 Washington Street) with 43 units (comprehensive permit ● 78 Crafts Street with 295 units (comprehensive permit approved) ● Northland on Needham and Oak Streets with 800 units (special permit approved) ● Northland Charlemont with 370 units (comprehensive permit approved) ● Riverside Station with 550 units (pre-construction) ● 1314 Washington Street with 50 units (special permit approved) Ef i sv tei -my ea at er se fnorrofl ul mt uernet spt ur odjeenc tt i eonnrso. lAl mt oetnatl forfo2m2 2t heel edme veenl toaprmy secnht so oa lbsotvued ae rnet si ,n9c 7l umd ei dd di nl e t h e sc cohmopollesxteusdhe anvt se, ba enedn9d8i shtirgi hb ustcehdo oa cl rsot us sd et hnet sf i(vaeg- yr ae na rd pt or ot aj el cotfi o4n1s7 asmt uodnegnstts a) lflrsocmh otohlesseex c e p t froers iMd eenmt ioarl i da le- vS eplaouplmd ienngt, sUinndtehrewi rodoids ,t rainc dt s W. Tahreds,ewahdidc iht ihoanvseanr eo pl ahragsee nd ei wn t oo rt hpee npdr oi nj egc t i o n s oi t vs eprl af inv ne eyde ac or sm, apsl es ut imo ni ndga tt he a. Tt he ae csht adret vdeal ot ep fmo re npthraesai nc hg ei ns fsut lul doecnc ut spfarnocmy aw ni tehwi n df ei vvee lyoepamr seonft idsi sdpelpa ey ne dd ei nn tAopnp tehned fi ixr sEt , yTeaabrl eo f1o4c. cAuf pt earn fci yv ef oyre tahr es , di te ivse al os ps umme en dt ; tthhaets ae l fl i sr tsut dy ee na rt ss farroem a np er owj edcet ivoenl omp me t eh no td ho al ovgeyb, ea en nd isnt cuodrepnot rs aat reed ni no t loo nt hgee rc omhaonr ut as ul l yr vai vd adlerda tt ioo tshuet ipl irzoej de citni otnhse f r o m that development. Newton Public Schools includes estimates for future student enrollment in its five-year enrollment projections only for projects that have received special permits, comprehensive permits, or building permits. Ai n tAa bp lpeetnhdaitx sEh, oTwa sb lteh e1 4c .aAl ccut luaat il oenn roof lel ms t ei mn ta ot ef dNteowt at ol snt uP du ebnl itcs Sf cohr oeoalcshs pt ur do ej enctts ciannl abreg feoru n d dAepvpeelnodpimx eEn, tTsaabnled1th5e. accuracy of the projections for these developments are displayed in Ad epvpeelno dp imx eEn, tTaatb vl ea r1i4o uc so ns tsaogl iedsaitne st hi ne fCoirtmy ao tf i No ne wa bt oonu.t Tehxei sitni nf ogr, mp eartmi oint toe nd , parnodj epcltasntna et uds a n d nDue mp abret mr oefnut naint sd bi sy ctuy rpree hn at sa sb eoef nD epcr ee mp abreerd 2i n0 2c4o.nIst ui sl t ai mt i op no rwt ai nt ht tNoenwottoent’ hs aPtl aens tni imn ag t e s rpel al antni ni ng gt oa ps pi zreo av na ldpnruo mc ebs es ,r wo fh ui cnhi tcsatny pc hi caanl lgye cthhaenpgreoaj es cttheed pnruomj ebc et rp or of gs rt ue sdseenst st hf rr oo umg ha t h e dNeevwetloonpmPuebnlti.c Schools, in collaboration with the City of Newton Executive, Public Buildings, ag ne nd ePr laatni onni nf go rDleopc aa rl trme sei nd tesn, tui pa ldda et evde l iot ps mmeent ht oi nd oNl oo vg ey mu sbeedr 2i n0 t1h8e. Tc ahl ec us ltautdi oenn to gf es nt uedr ae tni to n ra antdi ows eursee db apsrei do rotno tNh oe veexmp ebrei re n2c0e1 o8 f bayc tNu ea wl sttound Pe nu tb el i nc rSocl hl mo oe lns t of rr iogmi n at ht ee dt hi nr eteh el aer ag relsyt 2 0 0 0 s residential complexes in Newton built at that time: Avalon Newton Highlands, Avalon 9
Enrollment Analysis Report 2024 Cmheetshtonduot lHo gi lyl , iasnadv aAirl abbolrepioni nAtpapt eWn doioxdEl ainndt hSet aFt iAoQn .sAe cdt ei ot ani. l e d d e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e c u r r e n t Trehseocuurcrreesn, itnmcleutdhiondgo: logy is the result of an in-depth review that was supported by expert ● Review of residential development in other Massachusetts communities ● Review of student generation rates in West Hartford, CT ● Apaptptelircnastioonf foafmPiulibeslicinUNseewMtiocnrowdiattha sScahmooplleag(PeUcMhiSld)rdeanta to understand housing ● Demographics-based enrollment projections ● Fs cohr otohle- M a t g h u e r n e c i e c h i i l p l a d a r r g l e e fi n s n t i a n r n e r c s e i i a s d l i e d i n m e t n p ia c a l e c r t a e r m n e t o a s d h l e c o l o w in m n g m i nu tnhi tei et as bi nl e Nbeewl otwo n. Sattutdhei ns tpeoni nr ot , l ltmh ee nn tusmhbaevres o f bo ve ec or aml lenfeati ri lnyc sr teaabs lee far to mt h el as se t cyoema rp loefxtews ,ewn thyi-cnhi nweesrteu bd ue inl tt si .nTthhies ey ae ralry, 2s l0i g0h0t’lsy; ut hnedreer i hs aalnf o f tmhiedsdtluedsecnhtosoal ,t at nh de tahprpereocxoi mmaptleelxyetshai rrteyepl eemr ceennttaartyt es nt uddheingths ,sacph po rool .xTi mh eartee layrae fai lf st ho a3t7t e n d si nt ut dh ee ns et scroems ipdlienxge isn) , twh ehsi ec hc oi smhpi gl ehxeerst wh ahno tahree peenrrcoelnl et da gi en opfr si vt ua tdee snct hs or oe ls i(d1i3n%g i on f raelsl isdteundtei anlt s ceoxmplpailnexeedsinanSdecattitoenndViIn).g private school in Newton as a whole (10% for the current year, as
Enrollment at Newton's Largest Rental Housing Complexes (2024-25)
Avalon at Newton Highlands (294 Units)
Avalon at Chestnut Hill (204 Units)
Arborpoint at Woodland Station (180 Units)
Complex
% by Level
Year Built
2000
2002
2004
Countryside
Bowen
Peirce Williams
Districted Schools*
Zervas
Mem-Spaulding
In District
49
39
23
Elementary Enrollment
47%
Out-of-assigned District
0
1
2 8 1
In District
23
16
Middle School Enrollment
21%
Out-of-assigned District
1
2
In District
37
28
10
High School Enrollment
32%
Out-of-assigned District
1
1
0
Total Enrollment
111
87 80
44 38
242 213
Prior Year Total (2023-24) Change from Prior Year Private School Students
95 16 15
7
6 4
29 37
18
Housing Trends in Newton Tb ehfeo traebtlheebme looswt rsehcoewn st et hn er oalml moeunntt garnodwdt hi s pt rei br iuotdi obne og af nh o( u2 s0i0n3g - t0y4p, eFsYi0n4N) eawn dt ocno mi n pt ah reeys e a r * Districted schools listed are elementary schools. Student assignment at elementary school determines middle school and high school assignment. Students attend out-of-assigned district schools for a variety of reasons including educational needs, family relocation within Newton, changes in school district boundaries, or buffer zones.
10
Enrollment Analysis Report 2024 tohf fei sc ee , ht oh ue sgi rnegattyeps te sc ht oa nt hg eo sdeuar vi nagi l at hbilse tiinmNe ei wn tNoenwt toodna’ ys . hAocucsoirndgi ns tgotcok thhaesCbi teye nA sasne si ns oc rr e’ sa s e or ef s2u, 2l t8o6f cboont hd oc mo ni nv ieur ms i opnrso op fe er txi iesst ,i nwghpi crho pi se rgtrioe ws st hu cohf a6 s6 t%w. oC- oonrdtohmr ei en -i fuammsi lhy ahvoemb ee se n( wt hhei c h ht yapvees dheacvr ee abseeedn stihnec emFoYs0t 4s )t aabsl ewseel lg ams ennet wo fctohnes ht rouucst ii no gn sotro ac dk di ni t iNo enws . tSoinn gdlue rfianmg itlhy i sh opme rei o d .
City of Newton Housing Types
# Change
% Change
Housing Type
FY04 % of Total in FY04 FY25 % of Total in FY25
Single Family Condominium Two Family Three Family
16,885
69% 14% 13%
16,928
65%
43 0.3%
3,489 3,224
5,775 2,527
22% 2,286 66%
10%
-697 -22% -54 -18% -20 -11% -72 -24%
308 176 296
1% 1% 1%
254 156 224
1% 1% 1%
Apartment Buildings
Mixed Use
TOTAL PROPERTIES 24,378 Source: Newton Assessor's Office
100% 25,864
100% 1,486 6%
Trends in Housing Patterns of District Families Tc hhiel dr er ehna. vAec ac losrod bi nege nt os Gh iefot sg ri na pt hh ei c hI on uf osri nmga pt iaotnt eSrynsst eomf fsa md ai ltiae st hwa ti t mh aNtecwh et os nN Pe wu bt ol i nc Ss tcuhdoeonl st ab du di l rdei ns sgess t tood ha yo ut hs ianng i tny 2p 0e s0, 2maonrde fsetwu de er ns tt su da re en tl isvai nr eg li inv icnogn idno smi ni ng il ue mf asmainl yd oarptawr tom/ tehnrte e ff ar ommi l y7 3h %o mt eos6. T3 %h e, pwehricl ee nt ht aegree ohfasscbheoeonl cahni lidnrcer ne al si vei nf rgo imn s5i%n g tl oe f1a5m%i l yi nhtohme epse hr caesndt ea cg lei noef d ss ct uhdoeonl tcsh li il vdirnegn i lni vci onng di no mc oi nniduommsi nt oi ud ma ys .c To mh i ps ar reepdr et soe2n0t s0 2a . rTeha el ri ne chr ae sa sael soof boeveenr 1a n, 0 0i n0c r e a s e i2n0 t2h4e. Sp teur dc ee nn tt as gaer eo fs lsi tguhdt el yn lt es sl si vl ii nk ge l iyn t ao pl ai vr et mi ne nt wt so, wo ri t thh 2r e%e fi an m2 i0l y0 2h oc omme ps ai nr e2d0 t2o4 5; %a s it nh e pdreecvreioausesdta. ble shows, the number of two and three family homes in Newton has also
11
Enrollment Analysis Report 2024
Newton Public School Children by Housing Type*
% of Resident Students
% of Resident Students
Change #
Change %
Type of Housing
2002
2024
Single Family
7,777 1,671
73% 16%
6,872 1,403 1,658
63% 13%
-905 -12% -268 -16%
Two/Three Family
Condominiums
526 251 389
5% 2% 4%
15% 1,132 215%
Apartment Buildings Mixed Use / Other
584 387
5% 4%
333 133%
-2
-1%
Total
10,614
100% 10,904
100% 290
3%
* Preschool - Grade 12 Source: Newton Geographic Information Systems
Real Estate Sales Ap rcoc op redr ti ny gs at ol e ds ai nt acoa bl et na idnaerdyferaorm2 0C 2i t4y (otfhNr oe uwgtho nD er ec ce omr bd es ,r t6h, e2r 0e 2h4a)v ve ebres euns 89 80 04 irne s2i 0d 2e n3 t. i a l Co fo Dmebcienme db ewr i t2h0 2t h4e; pn luema sbee sr eoef Th ao bml ee s9 ci unrAr epnptel yn da idxvBe rftoi sr edde tf oa irl ss )a, l he oi nmNe es wa l teosni n( 7250 h2 o4 m e s a s ap pe pn ed ai nr gt os abl ee jaut stthsel i tgi hmt el yt hh iagt htehre tdh aa tna 2w0a2s3c (opl ll ee catseedn) .oCt ea ltehnadt at rh iyse ma ra2y 0o2m1 i ht ahdo mt hees ht ihgaht easrt e neluemmbeenrtaorfyhsocmhoeosladleisstirnictth. e past 17 years. Appendix B, Table 8 shows home sale data by Ab yd ds ci thi oo no al ldiins tf or ircmt iant iNo ne wi st opnr oavsi do ef dD ei nc eTma bbleer 92 o0 f2 A4 p; apte tnhdi si xt iBmwe ,i tthh eprreo pweerrtei e7s 5l i ps treodp ef or rt i seas l e lFi isftteyd- nf ionres pa el er ci ne nNt eowf tt oh ne . pArto ap es ri mt i ei lsa rl i st it me de floars ts ay leea irn, tNh ee wr et owne ar er e8 s2i npgr loepfearmt i iel ys lhi sotme de sf o, wr si tahl e . mp eorscte on ft tohf etshee hpormo pees r(t8i e4s%f oor f stahl ee lai rs et ecdo hn od mo se, sw) iht ha v5i 6n %g f iovfet ho or sme oc roen bd eods rhoaovmi nsg. Tf ohui rrt y - s i x ba lesdor po roomv si doerdmi no rt he .i sT thaeb dl ei sf torri br ue ft ei or ne nocf et. yFpoer oefxpa rmo pp leer, t iyn ot nh et hFer amn akrl ikne ts cbhyosocl hdoi os tl rdi ci st t, r1i 0c t0 i%s oo ff pp rr oo pp ee rr tt ii ee ss lf iosrt es da l feo ar rsea lsei nagrlee sf ianmg li el y f, a4m3 i%l y ahroemc oe sn, dwo hmi li en ii unmt hs e, aCnadb 0o %t s cahr oe oml du il st it-rf iacmt , i5l y7. %
12
TABLE 1 PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY SCHOOL 2025-26 TO 2029-30 Actual
Projections Using 5 Year Average Ratios**
SP*
School Angier Bowen
FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30
383 325 350 414 369 320 351 336 321 342 249 253 186 211 399 448 713 860 649
378 319 343 399 372 305 335 354 316 347 258 263 187 202 389 473 696 848 628
387 316 345 384 366 279 324 357 306 338 275 260 187 196 393 529 685 859 591
387 314 346 391 384 270 316 366 302 315 299 271 193 204 386 508 703 832 604
397 316 339 382 401 274 322 356 283 309 313 274 207 207 389 522 709 789 576
384 325 337 384 431 274 316 364 285 311 329 276 197 225 379 488 703 763 562
Burr
Cabot
Countryside
Franklin
Horace Mann Lincoln-Eliot Mason-Rice
Memorial-Spaulding
Peirce
Underwood
Ward
Williams Zervas Bigelow Brown
TOTAL ELEMENTARY
(0)
4,809 4,767 4,713 4,744 4,769 4,817
Day
Oak Hill
TOTAL MIDDLE Newton North Newton South
(0)
2,670 2,645 2,664 2,647 2,596 2,516 2,117 2,071 2,001 1,976 1,989 2,036 1,898 1,913 1,929 1,868 1,853 1,807 4,015 3,984 3,930 3,844 3,842 3,843
(31)
(5)
TOTAL HIGH SCHOOL
(36)
GRAND TOTAL (36) 11,494 11,396 11,307 11,235 11,207 11,176 *Enrollment numbers and projections include students who receive special education services beyond grade 12. **Adjusted three-year averages of previous kindergarten enrollments are used to project kindergarten enrollment.
13
Newton Public Schools Enrollment History and Projections by School 1979 to 2028
TABLE 2
Peak Enroll Peak Year 1980* 1981* 1982* 1983* 1984* 1985* 1986* 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993* 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 752 1953 424 400 375 384 413 412 419 409 410 439 436 441 469 428 430 430 436 423 433 412 418 412 396 371 502 2013 309 300 291 283 312 348 350 364 366 403 413 426 428 410 414 421 410 409 390 377 383 351 336 335 496 1967 264 236 229 211 204 210 238 249 260 304 299 302 323 275 294 287 292 273 256 278 270 294 300 303 539 1967 306 410 351 342 336 337 362 362 387 424 449 470 473 443 431 420 417 412 393 385 362 360 352 353
School Name
Angier Bowen
Burr
Cabot
Carr
401 1963
Claflin
420 1960 215
Countryside
557 1959 338 347 316 303 379 394 418 436 451 458 474 500 497 461 477 446 449 469 493 499 482 453 455 446
Davis
352 1961 345 1955
Emerson Franklin Hamilton
601 1961 478 399 394 388 345 338 334 331 347 364 382 361 360 332 350 346 366 379 407 389 390 398 384 397
222 1960
Horace Mann
434 2014 317 301 287 261 268 258 249 276 287 299 323 318 324 285 288 294 282 273 297 301 303 313 330 333
Hyde
669 1952 341 314 310 301
Lincoln-Eliot Mason-Rice
435 1970 320 308 269 237 246 242 239 250 249 285 316 338 352 293 306 333 345 321 325 285 281 252 220 242 620 1962 360 349 321 286 418 402 419 419 423 436 459 475 486 395 417 405 397 395 412 393 364 369 364 352
Memorial
536 1953
Memorial-Spaulding Oak Hill Elementary
486 1992 309 301 284 264 372 382 401 415 418 445 449 452 486 426 469 477 454 452 448 462 452 417 440 447
450 1962 274 268 230 207
Peirce
429 1960 355 355 302 290 291 266 253 253 267 282 283 272 292 270 270 259 250 281 282 271 281 270 271 271
Spaulding Underwood
587 1961
582 1970 373 328 293 308 291 292 264 280 277 283 303 310 302 295 311 283 285 282 267 278 264 276 294 276 506 1971 334 302 278 258 286 279 312 325 354 351 372 378 386 330 342 366 360 335 319 343 325 304 281 274 375 1969 235 214 209 213 223 221 219 216 238 244 255 284 302 271 261 254 288 269 260 258 241 257 260 254 434 2019 238 227 209 213 278 281 258 266 273 280 290 320 325 302 303 288 287 287 311 281 281 276 287 284
Ward
Williams
Zervas (formerly Beethoven) Peabody (Special Education) Total Elem
5,790 5,359 4,948 4,749 4,662 4,662 4,735 4,851 5,007 5,297 5,503 5,647 5,805 5,216 5,363 5,309 5,318 5,260 5,293 5,212 5,097 5,002 4,970 4,938
Change
-354 -431 -411 -199 -87
0 73 116 156 290 206 144 158 -589 147 -54
9 -58 33 -81 -115 -95 -32 -32
% Change
-5.8% -7.4% -7.7% -4.0% -1.8% 0.0% 1.6% 2.4% 3.2% 5.8% 3.9% 2.6% 2.8% -10.1% 2.8% -1.0% 0.2% -1.1% 0.6% -1.5% -2.2% -1.9% -0.6% -0.6% 18 17 17 17 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
Total # Elem Schools
Bigelow 534 567 590 612 522 483 446 465 477 513 520 Brown (formerly Meadowbrook) 1,024 1964 858 636 654 615 600 597 570 548 557 528 508 628 689 989 940 945 974 645 749 771 752 735 756 770 Day 999 2019 734 774 847 652 604 654 709 684 680 730 797 772 770 755 794 808 856 823 804 804 835 855 822 785 Oak Hill Middle 639 2016 572 578 619 620 621 597 598 Warren 1,270 1969 629 606 419 Weeks 1,033 1960 287 Total Middle School 3,011 2,498 2,457 1,692 1,554 1,419 1,279 1,232 1,237 1,258 1,305 1,400 1,459 2,278 2,301 2,343 2,442 2,562 2,614 2,640 2,672 2,688 2,688 2,673 Change -179 -513 -41 -765 -138 -135 -140 -47 5 21 47 95 59 819 23 42 99 120 52 26 32 16 0 -15 % Change -5.6% -17.0% -1.6% -31.1% -8.2% -8.7% -9.9% -3.7% 0.4% 1.7% 3.7% 7.3% 4.2% 56.1% 1.0% 1.8% 4.2% 4.9% 2.0% 1.0% 1.2% 0.6% 0.0% -0.6% Total # Middle Schools 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 612 1996 503 482 537 425 350 168
North South
2,976 1972 2,471 2,275 2,075 2,659 2,540 2,390 2,195 1,983 1,771 1,617 1,589 1,623 1,691 1,757 1,765 1,808 1,867 1,911 2,019 2,123 2,144 2,190 2,219 2,169 1,983 2019 1,154 1,503 1,418 1,311 1,298 1,229 1,226 1,174 1,127 1,104 1,091 1,058 1,055 1,109 1,142 1,220 1,223 1,211 1,240 1,273 1,333 1,370 1,399 1,487 3,625 3,778 3,493 3,970 3,838 3,619 3,421 3,157 2,898 2,721 2,680 2,681 2,746 2,866 2,907 3,028 3,090 3,122 3,259 3,396 3,477 3,560 3,618 3,656
Total High School
Change
-91 153 -285 477 -132 -219 -198 -264 -259 -177 -41
1 65 120 41 121 62 32 137 137 81 83 58 38
% Change
-2.4% 4.2% -7.5% 13.7% -3.3% -5.7% -5.5% -7.7% -8.2% -6.1% -1.5% 0.0% 2.4% 4.4% 1.4% 4.2% 2.0% 1.0% 4.4% 4.2% 2.4% 2.4% 1.6% 1.1%
Grand Total
12,426 11,635 10,898 10,411 10,054 9,700 9,435 9,240 9,142 9,276 9,488 9,728 10,010 10,360 10,571 10,680 10,850 10,944 11,166 11,248 11,246 11,250 11,276 11,267 -624 -791 -737 -487 -357 -354 -265 -195 -98 134 212 240 282 350 211 109 170 94 222 82 -2 4 26 -9 -4.8% -6.4% -6.3% -4.5% -3.4% -3.5% -2.7% -2.1% -1.1% 1.5% 2.3% 2.5% 2.9% 3.5% 2.0% 1.0% 1.6% 0.9% 2.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% -0.1%
Change
% Change
* Asterisk denotes change in grade pattern and/or school consolidation.
14
Newton Public Schools Enrollment History and Projections by School 1979 to 2028
TABLE 2
Projected
Peak Enroll
Peak Year
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 363 370 379 401 392 389 375 395 408 417 402 409 421 467 503 502 428 423 376 384 383 378 387 387 397 384 375 386 413 428 435 454 449 448 477 502 475 449 417 421 397 372 342 345 360 355 325 319 316 314 316 325 314 314 333 331 369 379 391 409 415 424 424 412 402 386 384 366 339 355 368 355 350 343 345 346 339 337 357 391 420 424 425 449 452 440 420 419 418 403 400 391 386 393 379 412 442 428 414 399 384 391 382 384
School Name
Angier Bowen
752 1953 502 2013 496 1967 539 1967 401 1963 420 1960 557 1959 352 1961 345 1955 601 1961 222 1960 434 2014 669 1952 435 1970 620 1962 536 1953 486 1992 450 1962 429 1960 587 1961 582 1970 506 1971 375 1969 434 2019
Burr
Cabot
Carr
Claflin
448 463 437 447 479 472 499 490 479 457 466 450 436 410 413 413 369 371 372 360 369 372 366 384 401 431
Countryside
Davis
Emerson Franklin Hamilton
386 385 414 401 396 402 397 401 396 389 413 424 446 434 427 413 379 402 363 349 320 305 279 270 274 274
Horace Mann
337 344 350 348 370 371 373 386 394 427 434 412 417 404 399 391 377 369 357 360 351 335 324 316 322 316
Hyde
Lincoln-Eliot Mason-Rice
229 282 281 293 284 291 293 317 322 329 337 340 346 374 365 362 353 314 338 328 336 354 357 366 356 364 365 372 372 410 422 428 442 437 438 457 478 492 507 512 487 446 366 337 332 334 321 316 306 302 283 285
Memorial
Memorial-Spaulding Oak Hill Elementary
427 419 443 449 442 438 459 458 464 429 434 452 454 453 464 465 404 395 397 369 342 347 338 315 309 311
Peirce
286 306 324 329 338 329 318 316 337 312 306 314 299 276 271 284 238 238 241 236 249 258 275 299 313 329
Spaulding Underwood
275 264 288 295 282 262 282 289 310 327 341 326 313 284 290 269 225 221 221 242 253 263 260 271 274 276 262 262 237 247 260 260 269 278 301 289 304 304 313 309 296 255 216 211 194 212 186 187 187 193 207 197 264 275 295 281 276 277 298 302 304 304 292 290 293 296 278 261 246 225 231 215 211 202 196 204 207 225 287 300 332 324 328 326 349 321 325 317 309 308 337 407 427 434 394 423 406 399 399 389 393 386 389 379 4,975 5,133 5,318 5,408 5,498 5,527 5,646 5,687 5,790 5,799 5,833 5,785 5,801 5,824 5,787 5,626 5,055 5,041 4,998 4,926 4,809 4,767 4,713 4,744 4,769 4,817 37 158 185 90 90 29 119 41 103 9 34 -48 16 23 -37 -161 -571 -14 -43 -72 -117 -42 -54 31 25 48 0.7% 3.2% 3.6% 1.7% 1.7% 0.5% 2.2% 0.7% 1.8% 0.2% 0.6% -0.8% 0.3% 0.4% -0.6% -2.8% -10.1% -0.3% -0.9% -1.4% -2.4% -0.9% -1.1% 0.7% 0.5% 1.0% 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 510 496 495 487 505 527 523 533 531 525 504 509 525 521 501 494 506 465 445 425 448 473 529 508 522 488 787 705 665 644 681 684 666 677 698 743 738 780 774 753 744 778 794 759 750 732 713 696 685 703 709 703 758 768 747 764 747 773 758 845 874 947 932 927 922 980 976 999 959 941 920 868 860 848 859 832 789 763 565 565 567 558 547 572 603 612 616 634 632 602 639 614 630 632 647 661 657 648 649 628 591 604 576 562 2,620 2,534 2,474 2,453 2,480 2,556 2,550 2,667 2,719 2,849 2,806 2,818 2,860 2,868 2,851 2,903 2,906 2,826 2,772 2,673 2,670 2,645 2,664 2,647 2,596 2,516 -53 -86 -60 -21 27 76 -6 117 52 130 -43 12 42 8 -17 52 3 -80 -54 -99 -3 -25 19 -17 -51 -80 -2.0% -3.3% -2.4% -0.8% 1.1% 3.1% -0.2% 4.6% 1.9% 4.8% -1.5% 0.4% 1.5% 0.3% -0.6% 1.8% 0.1% -2.8% -1.9% -3.6% -0.1% -0.9% 0.7% -0.6% -1.9% -3.1% 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 2,121 2,047 1,964 1,911 1,829 1,802 1,871 1,877 1,940 2,015 2,060 2,107 2,145 2,165 2,136 2,099 2,080 2,107 2,110 2,135 2,117 2,071 2,001 1,976 1,989 2,036 1,552 1,701 1,745 1,784 1,763 1,722 1,708 1,691 1,721 1,778 1,804 1,798 1,851 1,893 1,911 1,983 1,869 1,836 1,837 1,862 1,898 1,913 1,929 1,868 1,853 1,807 3,673 3,748 3,709 3,695 3,592 3,524 3,579 3,568 3,661 3,793 3,864 3,905 3,996 4,058 4,047 4,082 3,949 3,943 3,947 3,997 4,015 3,984 3,930 3,844 3,842 3,843 17 75 -39 -14 -103 -68 55 -11 93 132 71 41 91 62 -11 35 -133 -6 4 50 18 -31 -54 -86 -2 1 0.5% 2.0% -1.0% -0.4% -2.8% -1.9% 1.6% -0.3% 2.6% 3.6% 1.9% 1.1% 2.3% 1.6% -0.3% 0.9% -3.3% -0.2% 0.1% 1.3% 0.5% -0.8% -1.4% -2.2% -0.1% 0.0% 11,268 11,415 11,501 11,556 11,570 11,607 11,775 11,922 12,170 12,441 12,503 12,508 12,657 12,750 12,685 12,611 11,910 11,810 11,717 11,596 11,494 11,396 11,307 11,235 11,207 11,176 1 147 86 55 14 37 168 147 248 271 62 5 149 93 -65 -74 -701 -100 -93 -121 -102 -98 -89 -72 -28 -31 0.0% 1.3% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 1.4% 1.2% 2.1% 2.2% 0.5% 0.0% 1.2% 0.7% -0.5% -0.6% -5.6% -0.8% -0.8% -1.0% -0.9% -0.9% -0.8% -0.6% -0.2% -0.3%
Ward
Williams
Zervas (formerly Beethoven) Peabody (Special Education) Total Elem Change % Change Total # Elem Schools
Bigelow 612 1996 Brown (formerly Meadowbrook) 1,024 1964 Day 999 2019 Oak Hill Middle 639 2016 Warren 1,270 1969 Weeks 1,033 1960 Total Middle School Change % Change Total # Middle Schools
North South
2,976 1972 1,983 2019
Total High School Change % Change Grand Total Change % Change
* Asterisk denotes change in grade pattern and/or school consolidation.
15
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