Master Your Money With Reverse Budgeting DECODING ELECTION YEAR STOCK MARKET TRENDS Bulls, Bears, and Ballots — Oh, My!
Looking to the Future Investors are always trying to hedge their bets and plan for long-term economic downturns, another pattern worth looking into. According to T. Rowe Price, a global investment management firm, there’s a 22% probability of an election happening during a recession. What’s interesting, however, are the numbers in the years that follow. There’s a 57% chance the following 365 days will have a recession, with the second and third years coming in at 30% and 17%, respectively. The big question remains: Will the winner of this year’s race create an unstable market? Rob Haworth, senior investment strategy director at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, says, “At the presidential level, the differences between the candidates, from an investor’s perspective, are not as significant as many would expect.”
Making money in the stock market can often evolve into a pattern recognition game, with investors searching for any repetition in past data. Many traders and analysts have noticed a particular market trend in election years — and some wonder what that means for 2024. Let’s look at the data gleaned from previous years and uncover how (if at all) it applies now. Emerging Patterns A bull market is an economically stable time when prices are increasing. In contrast, a bear market is when stocks are losing value. Typically, stock market patterns in presidential election years show a weaker first half (bear), followed by a dip around May. After June, the index usually rises (bull), and the Dow’s second-half return in election years is an average of 8.6% as opposed to 3% in other years.
So, based on history, the stock market usually performs weaker at the beginning of an election year due to economic
Change is constant in the markets, so don’t base your entire portfolio on this historical data. Trends like this are never guaranteed to repeat — they’re simply interesting patterns discerned in previous years. Instead, use this information to inspire your investments and
uncertainty surrounding the candidate’s policies. As the year goes on and the parties solidify
their plans throughout their campaigns, that ambiguity wanes, and the market picks back up.
empower yourself with clever strategies for cultivating long-term financial stability.
Shoup Legal’s New Office Services Assistant At Shoup Legal, our team’s dedication and skill are the foundation of our success. Their hard work and commitment enable us to deliver exceptional service and achieve outstanding results for our clients. We are proud to welcome our new office services assistant, Riley, to our team. “Since being here, it’s amazing how much I’ve already learned,” Riley comments. “Before this opportunity, I wasn’t fully informed on the importance of an estate plan and what can happen without one. This learning experience is what truly attracted me to this role and I’m forever grateful for the opportunity.” SPOTLIGHT ON RILEY
Many of you may have already met her! Riley has been here for about six months and is already making a fabulous impact on our team and clients. She handles a lot of our client communication and assists with countless tasks around the office — to say that she wears many hats is an understatement! Before joining our team, Riley was a research assistant at the U.S. Immigration Policy Center at UC San Diego, where she also attended school. With aspirations to work in the legal field, Riley brings valuable experience from a previous role at another law firm.
Riley is always eager to learn about not only estate planning, wills, and trust administration, but also how it impacts the lives of our clients. “I’m motivated by the many challenges we are faced with. It’s a great opportunity to grow and I love working so closely with our clients while helping to improve their lives every day.” Outside of work, Riley is an avid outdoor enthusiast with a deep passion for the Earth, the environment, and its diverse species. To align with these interests, she plans to eventually pursue a career
in environmental law. Riley enjoys hiking, camping, visiting the beach, and exploring national parks. “I enjoy the adventure and beauty of it all,” she says. Riley, you are an invaluable member of our team and the Shoup Legal family! Your positive impact on our clients and staff is remarkable, and you continue to grow in your role each day. We look forward to continuing to deliver the best for our clients together!
Plan today for peace
2 | (951) 445-4114
Made with FlippingBook Ebook Creator