WHO WILL FLY THE AERIAL VEHICLES OF TOMORROW?
Looking at just the commercial viability of vehicle production, Uber Elevate estimates the need for at least 5,000 VTOL units per year, according to its 2016 white paper study. Well before we will ever see a fully autonomous flying car, the new industry will initially need to tap into the fixed-wing pilot pool to command eVOTL and eSTOVL vehicles. Accommodating the fixed-wing pilot requires simplifying operations and making sure controls and other human machine interfaces operate similarly to what fixed-wing pilots are accustomed to. They must also demonstrate a path to autonomous operations. At Flight Level Engineering we are making inroads in this area through SVO and Simplified Handling Qualities (SHQ) on our EZ-FLY platform. A member of the Embry-Riddle Research Park, Flight Level has refined the advanced flight control augmentation system so that even a non- trained pilot could potentially fly. Eventually an aerial vehicle would likely require a manager or operator with an endorsement, rather than a traditional licensed pilot. With a control scheme engineered to be agnostic of the aircraft configuration, a fixed-wing pilot may transition to become an operator of highly augmented or semi-autonomous STOVL or VTOL aircraft with significantly reduced training requirements.
As a result of advances in avionics and flight control systems, as well as increased safety and reliability, the road is now paved for the highly automated commercial flight vehicles for the UAM industry. While flying cars are closer to reality — Uber has aerial ridesharing plans for 2023 — the pilot pipeline needed to support this emerging industry needs to keep up with the potential demand. The global pilot shortage statistics speak for themselves. The 2019 Boeing Pilot & Technician Outlook projects 804,000 new civil aviation pilots will be needed worldwide over the next 20 years, or about 40,000 new pilots every year. The potential shortage also applies to helicopter pilots, with a forecast of about 61,000 over the same period or about 3,000 each year. For comparison, in the United States alone, the FAA issued only 2,300 new rotorcraft licenses and 18,000 commercial and airline transport licenses in 2018. Helicopter and powered lift pilots (the few who operate the military’s Harrier, Bell Boeing V-22 Osprey or Lockheed Martin F-35) will be in highest demand as they are best skilled to operate eVTOL and electric short takeoff and vertical landing vehicles (eSTOVL). Yet with the demand so high in the already established commercial aviation market, one can almost certainly expect a shrinking pool as airlines also aggressively recruit them.
The pilot shortage could impede urban air mobility (UAM) from taking off unless autonomy becomes more synonymous with the industry.
By Borja Martos, Ph.D.
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