CONSTRUCTION AND REAL ESTATE
Rock and a hard place
International quarry company brings its shovels to residential San Rafael
Inside: Tiny Homes • Only In Marin Point Reyes Ranching • Stony Hill Tech Talk • Econ 101 • No Buy ‘25
Construction and Real Estate Issue 2025
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T he purpose of high-quality tree care isn’t limited to aesthetics. Instead, tree services are important to identify potential hazards, prevent property damage, ensure tree safety, improve air quality, and preserve natural habitats. From homeowners to municipalities to property managers to business owners, investing in professional tree services is essential to maintain the integrity and value of your outdoor space. No matter your needs, our tree care experts can create a customized tree care plan that aligns with your budget and goals. Contact us online to schedule a service. When should you consider investing in professional tree care? Here are telltale signs it’s time to reach out to our passionate arborists: When to Hire a Professional Arborist
n Your trees haven’t been cared for in years n Your trees are leaning or have fallen over
n Your trees show signs of disease, pests, or decay n Your trees have damaged power lines or structures n You want to plant new trees on your property
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4 NorthBaybiz
March 2025
MARCH 2025 • Volume 50 • Number 3 CONTENTS
50 YEARS OF BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE
22
LEAD STORY 22 Rock and a Hard Place Bill Meagher What to make of the Dutra Quarry sale to international conglomerate
FEATURE STORIES 28 Little House on the Property Janet Perry Are tiny homes the infill solution to the housing crisis? 36 Barn Doors Closing Judith M. Wilson Ranching to end at Point Reyes National Seashore 44 Lessons from ‘J’ School Jessica Zimmer Factory farming feud equips farmers, activists for future battles
WORK/LIFE 16 Spending 17 Employment 18 Remote
March 2025
NorthBaybiz 5
59
54
52
43
COLUMNS 11
DEPARTMENTS 12 The 707
Publisher's Forum Lawrence Amaturo Can Sonoma State ever recover?
The latest news from Sonoma and Napa counties
21
13
Tech Talk Michael E. Duffy The rapid advancement of AGI
The 415 The latest news from Marin County
27
19
Only In Marin Bill Meagher The loss of ranch culture in West Marin
The Month In Numbers A look at the key figures shaping life in the North Bay
35
52
Econ 101 Robert Eyler How wildfires heat up the housing insurance market
Great Tastes Alexandra Russell Stony Hill in St. Helena Dine Wise Jason Walsh Restaurant at North Block in Yountville
54
43
Napa Insider
Christina Julian
Women of the vine and valley
51
Vine Wise Adam Lee The importance of ‘personal’ wines John Ash The delights of Israel-style couscous In the Kitchen
59
What’s Happening Upcoming North Bay events
57
63
On the Move Comings and goings in the business community
65
Biz Scene Marin Builders Association Crab Fest
66
Beyond the Boardroom Rosie Padilla Paul Austin, executive director of Play Marin
/northbaybiz
/northbaybiz
@northbaybiz
NorthBay biz (ISSN No. 1542-3549: USPS 097-770) is owned and published monthly (plus three bonus issues annually) by North Bay Media Group, LLC. Editorial offices are at 3392 Mendocino Ave., Santa Rosa, CA 95403 USA: (707) 528-4434. Sub- scription price is $35 per year. Periodicals Postage Paid at Santa Rosa, CA 95402 and at additional mailing offices. Copyright 2022, NorthBay biz. Reproduction of this issue in whole or in part is strictly forbidden without written permission by the publisher. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to NorthBay biz, 3392 Mendocino Ave., Santa Rosa, CA 95403 USA.
Printed by Publication Printers Corp., an FSC Certified printer. Please recycle this magazine.
6 NorthBaybiz
March 2025
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Janet Perry Jason Walsh Jessica Zimmer Judith M. Wilson Rosie Padilla Columnists Adam Lee Alexandra Russell Bill Meagher Christina Julian Jason Walsh John Ash Michael E. Duffy Robert Eyler
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8 NorthBaybiz
March 2025
Books ArePortable Magic Remember being read to as a child? M y mother read aloud to me, and one of my favorite books was Charlotte’s Web by E.B. White. But what I remember most was the sound of her voice, the rhythm of the words and what it felt like leaning into her, while she read aloud to me. The pages of those books she read transported us to faraway places—real and imaginary—and taught me about life and oPened my mitnd to all the possibilities. So when I became a mother, I began reading to my kids. And now I’m reading to my grandchildren every chance I get. As for my mom, now a great-grandmother, she still takes great joy in reading to the kids whenever she visits. Remember to take time every chance you get—eat, play, read. Reading helps build language and thinking skills, develops a child’s imagination and empathy for others, achieve better in school, and it’s a great way to spend time together. And best of all, reading aloud to your child makes memories that will stay with you for a lifetime. That’s what my mother was doing years ago when she took the time to read aloud to me.
“For more than 40 years, we’ve protected people from the elements. Now it’s time to help our kids in the community.” — Barbie Simpson, Owner and President
Read on Sonoma!
Celebrating more than 40 years as a family owned business. Our team is here to meet all of your HVAC needs.
Put Your Trust In Us
707-576-150 • www.simpsonsheetmetal.com • Santa Rosa, CA
Publisher’s Forum
Gradually… suddenly: The downfall of SSU
By Lawrence Amaturo
Scene: Santiago, Chile, 1926: “H ow did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked.
As recently as July 2022, SSU’s CFO announced that Gov. Newsom’s generosity with taxpayer dollars would funnel an additional $211 million in unallocated funding into the CSU system. Looking back, it almost seems comical that another $81 million was earmarked for “Enrollment Growth” and $35 million for the “Graduation Initiative.” And let’s not forget the $1.1 billion (yes, billion) in one-time funding allocated for sustainability, deferred maintenance and energy efficiency projects. Taxpayer dollars in, taxpayer dollars out—now gone, with little to show for it other than a further drop in enrollment, the elimination of all sports teams, and the demise of SSU’s physics graduate program, among other casualties. I’m not one to dwell on problems without offering solutions, but I can’t help but worry that SSU’s gradual, then sudden, “bankruptcy” of spirit has begun an irreversible downward spiral. The impact on student life will be painfully obvious to any prospective students who have options elsewhere. On a Happier Note… Allow me to shift gears and celebrate my 25th wedding anniversary with my bride, Susan Amaturo. As I write this, I’m sitting in the lobby of the Plaza Hotel in New York City. It’s a balmy, sunny afternoon—almost 27 years to the day since I proposed in front of this very hotel. We’re lucky to be joined by our dear friends Oscar and Cathy, and Patrick and Shawn, soaking in all this city has to offer. A trip like this calls for some reflection… and, of course, some travel recommendations. g
“Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually, then suddenly.” This brief yet piercing exchange from Ernest
Hemingway’s first novel, The Sun Also Rises , still resonates today—whether we’re talking about personal finance, technological upheaval, the decline of civilizations, or, in this case, the financial and institutional unraveling of Sonoma State University. SSU’s recent and abrupt announcement to shutter several academic departments, eliminate all intercollegiate athletic programs, and lay off dozens of faculty and staff landed like a thunderclap. The university’s interim president, Emily Contreras, justified these drastic measures as necessary to address a projected $24 million budget deficit for 2025-2026. While well-intended, many saw the move as a knee-jerk reaction to problems that had been quietly metastasizing for over a decade. The numbers tell the story. The 2023-2024 CSU system budget revealed a staggering $227 million increase in spending, along with an additional $28.5 million in one-time investments across specific campuses. SSU itself received $3.4 million to prop up a seemingly benign budget line item called “base funding related to employee benefits.” Meanwhile, enrollment at SSU has been in freefall since 2019. (Yes, before the pandemic.) From a robust student population of over 9,000 in 2018, enrollment has now plummeted below 5,800. “Gradually, then suddenly” indeed. Over the past 30 years, I have been fortunate to hire outstanding SSU graduates—bright, driven, and well-prepared for the workforce. They’ve consistently impressed their colleagues and excelled in their roles. But with such a dramatic collapse in student life and campus activities—key elements in attracting engaged, ambitious students—I fear this “winning streak” for employers like me is coming to an end.
When it comes to SSU’s future, Denzel Washington’s latest stage endeavor, and the creamiest cream cheese in Manhattan, your opinion matters too! Be in touch at LAmaturo@MySonomaMedia.com.
Green Light (Highly Recommended): • Liberty Bagels, 16 E 58th St. Year in, year out, Victor Mejia and Alex Vithoulkas run a deli the way a deli should be run—broad
Yellow Light (Proceed with Caution) • Othello , Lionel Barrymore Theater, W. 47th St. The sheer star power of Jake Gyllenhaal and Denzel Washington
Red Light (Hard Pass) • Times Square. The crowds, the homelessness, the cacophony, the omnipresent stench of weed—it just gets worse every year. Stay away.
selection, delicious food, and gracious service. • Ristorante Scalinatella , 201 E 61st St. Put yourself in the hands of the waitstaff and let them dictate your meal. Your wallet will feel it, but long after your Visa bill clears, you’ll still be dreaming about the pastas, salads, seafood, steaks— and that cheesecake. • Terra Blues Bar, 149 Bleecker St. Too loud, too small, and runs too late into the night with world-class blues music. Perfect.
isn’t enough to overcome poor audio, awkward stagecraft, and lazy direction. It pains me to say this—Denzel is one of my favorite actors—but I hope the production makes adjustments as it moves forward.
March 2025
NorthBaybiz 11
The 707
Horse racing scratched at Sonoma County Fair The popular horse racing events at the Sonoma County Fair are being suspended this year due to a lack of available horses to race, fair officials announced. The closing of Golden Gate Fields, the 83-year-old race track between Berkeley and Albany, last summer and the elimination of horse stabling at the Alameda County Fair this coming March means there’s a lack of horses for the fair’s summer race meet. The industry as a whole has come under scrutiny for its treatment of horses; between 2021 and 2023, Golden Gate Fields had 35 horse deaths, according to Berkeleyside.com . “We remain indebted to the legacy of racing and the industry,” Sonoma County Fair officials said Feb. 4 in an announcement. “We are deeply saddened by the conditions in the horse racing industry that have unfolded to prompt this decision.” With the closing of Golden Gate Fields last year, following the 2008 closure of Bay Meadows Racetrack in San Mateo, the industry is centralizing its horse population in Southern California, the announcement explained. Fair officials said they’re implementing a reprogramming plan to bring new entertainment to the fair this August. The fair’s 2025 theme is “Hot Dogs and Cool Cats.”
“This year’s fair is all about celebrating our four-legged, feathered and scaly friends with amazing animals shows, the ‘Petals and Pets’ flower show and more,” the announcement continued. “The Racing Grandstand is set to host a new lineup of events for a wide variety of family fun.” The 2025 Sonoma County Fair runs Aug. 1 to 11 at the Sonoma County Fairgrounds, 1450 Bennett Valley Road, Santa Rosa. Visit sonomacountyfair.com.— JW
Sonoma County greatly expands fair-wage agreement for construction projects Fair wages for more county-contracted construction workers was the goal this week when the Sonoma County Board of Supervisors approved expansion of its Project Labor Agreement (PLA) with local trade unions. The revised PLA requires contractors and subcontractors to pay union wages and benefits on most County of Sonoma construction and maintenance contracts over $1 million. The county’s collective bargaining agreement with local trade unions was first reached in 2014—previously, the PLA only came into play in projects more than $10 million and excluded maintenance workers. “These changes will help strengthen our economy and our community,” said Supervisor Lynda Hopkins, chair of the Board of Supervisors. A Project Labor Agreement sets terms of employment for construction workers—both union and non-union—on certain types of projects. “In general, they set wages and benefits for workers, require contractors to hire workers through a union hiring hall, and include no-strike and no-lockout clauses,” county officials explained in a statement. “They may also outline goals for hiring workers from local and disadvantaged communities and supporting small businesses.” Additionally, the PLA will now cover the Sonoma County Fairgrounds, Sonoma Water and four sanitation districts managed by the Sonoma County Water Agency. The policy excludes disaster and emergency response contracts and projects where funding sources prohibit the use of Project Labor Agreements.— NBb staff
Lawsuit alleges fraud, embezzlement against Molti Amici founder
Molti Amici, the name of the recently shuttered Michelin-listed restaurant in Healdsburg, translates to “many friends.” Today, the former destination-eatery has one less friendship—as its current owner Jason Cutrer and his ownership company are suing Molti Amici founder Jonny Barr for more than $1.5 million in damages over allegations of fraud and embezzlement. The San Francisco Chronicle first reported news of the legal action. The suit alleges Barr withheld as much as $60,000 in funds that should have been deposited in the restaurant’s bank account meant to pay bills for vendors and other services. Cutrer first raised the red flag about the missing funds last summer with the Healdsburg Police Department, which ultimately declined to pursue the case. Barr denies any wrongdoing, saying the unaccounted-for $60,000 was paid to vendors, et al, in cash. The suit also claims Barr, who has since relocated to Indiana, falsely reported balance sheets, issued himself unapproved checks from the restaurant’s account for his own expenses, and personally polished off more than $250,000 worth of wine from the restaurant. Cutrer says the financial mismanagement led to the restaurant losing $600,000 in its first year. Molti Amici abruptly closed Nov. 3, 2024.— NBb
12 NorthBaybiz
March 2025
The 415
Marin County is becoming an example of how county residents are changing the way they consume public library materials. The Marin County Free Library this month reached a milestone: 1 million digital checkouts through its shared digital resource, the app called Libby. The library’s consortium of assets, MARINet, was established 35 years ago to better connect Marin library’s digital use reaches milestone
library resources for community members in Marin. Over the years, MARINet has expanded to provide such digital resources as OverDrive's Libby app, online access to the New York Times and internet connectivity for public libraries. Libby itself boasts over 100,000 titles, including eBooks, audiobooks, comics, manga and magazines, many selections also available in Spanish. It also emphasizes inclusivity by providing adjustable font sizes, dyslexia-friendly fonts and other ways to improve access. “We celebrate this milestone as a demonstration and commitment to a valued community resource that welcomes all,” MCFL Director Lana Adlawan said in a statement.— JW
Marin’s longtime one-stop shop for buying charmeuse by the yard is quickly spooling to an end. Joann Fabric and Crafts at 245 Tamal Vista in Corte Madera is among about 500 outlets of the sewing and crafts chain set to close, its parent company announced in February. The company, which began Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings in January, described the move in a statement as “right-sizing our store footprint” as it plots a financial path forward. At the time of the announcement, Joann Fabric had about 850 stores in the U.S. A closure date was not announced.— JW Joann Fabric in Corte Madera among company closures
MarinHealth expanding north
MarinHealth opened its first urgent-care clinic in Sonoma County last month. The walk-in clinic is at the Washington Square Shopping Center, 335 S. McDowell Blvd. in Petaluma, housed within the MarinHealth Multispecialty Clinic, which opened in December 2024. The opening of the clinic brings the Greenbrae-based health network’s reach to include more than 60 primary and specialty care clinics across the North Bay. The Petaluma facility joins MarinHealth’s San Rafael clinic as its two locations for urgent-care needs.
The McDowell clinic is currently open Saturdays from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m.—with plans to expand to Sunday and eventually weekdays—and will offer walk-ins for individuals with conditions that don’t require an emergency room visit but need prompt attention. Skilled clinicians will be available to treat various illnesses and injuries, from common colds and flu to cuts, sprains and rashes, MarinHealth officials said in an announcement of the clinic’s opening. Patients aged 3 months and up can receive treatment for conditions such as upper respiratory infections, sore throats, asthma, allergies, insect bites, minor fractures and more. On-site rapid testing will also be available for flu, strep throat, UTIs and other common illnesses. More info at MyMarinHealth.org.
March 2025
NorthBaybiz 13
Simpson Sheet Metal A new chapter of growth S impson Sheet Metal was founded by Bill and Nancy Simpson in 1981, and in 2016, Barbie took the reins as the next generation. Building upon the solid foundation created by her parents, Barbie has expanded the company’s reach while staying true to its core values. She is excited to now share this leadership role with her children, beginning a new chapter of growth and success for the family business.
Frank Young, General Manager Frank Young has been appointed as the new General Manager at Simpson Sheet Metal, bringing with him over a decade of experience in various roles within the company, including both field and shop operations, as well as business development. Frank’s journey with Simpson began as an apprentice in the commercial department, and his deep-rooted knowledge of the business makes him a key figure in its ongoing success. As a passionate advocate for the family-owned nature of Simpson Sheet Metal, Frank is excited to drive its continued growth while strengthening long-standing relationships within the community. He is committed to expanding the company’s impact and building new partnerships, helping the business thrive. Beyond his managerial responsibilities, Frank actively contributes to the field by serving as an advisory member of the Joint Apprenticeship Training Committee (JATC), leads biannual field sheet metal training sessions through the North Coast Builders Exchange, and he participates in SMACNA meetings as an active member. These contributions reflect his dedication to the development of skilled trades and his commitment to creating opportunities for the next generation of workers.
Frank is also actively involved in his local community. He coaches his children’s sports teams, offering mentorship both on and off the field. Outside of work, Frank is an avid outdoorsman who enjoys hunting, softball, MMA fighting, and practicing jujitsu. His multifaceted interests and strong sense of community involvement reflect the energy and passion he brings to his role at Simpson Sheet Metal.
Nancy Taylor, Vice President | Operations Manager Nancy Taylor joined Simpson Sheet Metal in 2015, starting in reception, and quickly made her mark by taking on various roles within the company, including accounting, service, residential replacement, and eventually office manager. In 2023, she stepped into the role of Vice President, where she continues to prioritize company culture and the legacy of her family’s business. Nancy has been a key figure in shaping an environment where employees feel valued and inspired to contribute their best work. Outside of her professional achievements, Nancy enjoys spending time outdoors with her son, camping, fishing, and hiking. At work, she’s often accompanied by her Anatolian Shepherd, Poppy, who has become a beloved team member, bringing joy to both staff and customers alike with her gentle nature.
707-576-1500 simpsonsheetmetal.com Santa Rosa, CA
Celebrating more than 40 years as a family owned business. Our team is here to meet all of your HVAC needs.
Put Your Trust In Us
WORK LIFE
Budgeting Applying for jobs Working remotely
March 2025
NorthBaybiz 15
Work Life Spending
Latest trend in frugality: ‘No-Buy-2025’ without (shoes, cosmetics, movies, travel), and another list of items that are permitted (groceries, health care, rent/mortgage). By Jason Walsh
Purse strings aren’t just tightening this year—they’re being squeezed with a Gordian knot. With consumer prices still rising and credit-card debt at an all-time high, some Americans are pledging a “No- Buy-2025,” a takeoff on the pre-holiday trend of No Spend November. Only this is 12 times as frugal. No-Buy-’25 focuses on cutting out non-essential purchases—meals out, subscriptions, extra clothes, new tech devices, etc. Like New Year’s vows to get back in shape at the gym, No-Buy-’25 promises might prove hard to keep as the year goes on. Proponents of the movement encourage participants to start out by making a list of purchases they can live
Post-pandemic inflation and the general rise in cost of living also comes at a time when shopping has become easier than ever—with instant digital purchases and returns rendering every person’s laptop or mobile device a virtual warehouse of goods at their fingertips.
6 tips for a successful No-Buy-‘25 n Make a list of what’s on the ‘no-buy’ list and what isn’t. n Set up a rewards system—for instance, when you’ve saved $500, allow yourself to spend an extra $50. n Establish a goal—whether it’s saving a certain amount for a trip the following year, or building your bank account to a specific level, have an endgame to work toward. n Find a No-Buy-Buddy: Misery loves company, especially when pledging not spend. Use a buddy system to talk each other out of purchases and to socialize with on the cheap. n Make your spending values-based: If health and fitness are important, for instance, allow yourself to spend on a comfortable bike helmet or running shoes, if those purchases will help you regularly exercise. Whereas, a sugary mocha latte might have no inherent value, and therefor can move to the top of the no-spend list. n Don’t be discouraged if you fall off the wagon once or twice. Just be sure not to purchase the whole wagon itself.
16 NorthBaybiz
March 2025
Work Life Employment
Nearly half of Americans have lied when applying for jobs
From experience to disability status, it’s buyer-beware with many applicants
By Jason Walsh
A s the saying goes: Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice? You’re hired! At least that’s the takeaway from a recent survey by job-finding company Resume Builder, which found that nearly half of Americans admit they’ve lied in the hiring process. The survey was conducted in January and posed questions about honesty, or lack thereof, among job seekers to 2,000 respondents. According to the results, 44% of Americans said they’d lied to companies they’d been applying to. All told, 24% have lied on their resume, 19% in an interview and 6% on their cover letter. The most common lies are about skills and abilities, years of experience, responsibilities in previous positions, and lengths of positions held, according to Resume Builder. Additionally, 9% have lied about their disability status, 7% about their race and ethnicity, and 6% about their veteran status. Men are more likely than women to lie on their resumes, 30% vs. 20%. The most likely age demographic to lie on resumes is millennials, at 29%. Only 13% of boomers report having lied on a resume.
Stacie Haller, chief career advisor at Resume Builder, places part of the blame on “modern hiring processes,” which drive job seekers to misrepresent themselves. “This behavior is compounded by societal shifts, where dishonesty is increasingly normalized,” Haller says. “For some, it has become a perceived necessity to compete in today’s job market.” She says human resources departments can lessen the urge to lie by eliminating information requirements, such as “years of experience,” when they don’t relate to whether someone will be successful in the position. “Improvements on the hiring side can reduce the perceived need of job seekers to lie during the process,” Haller says. Unfortunately, telling some whoppers tends to pay off for most of the liars. Four in 10 say they’ve landed a job as a result of their prevaricating. The majority say lying has helped them succeed professionally, including obtaining a higher salary. Only 12% reported ever facing any repercussions for their actions.
The 15 most common lies on American resumes 1. Embellished Skill Levels
2. Inflated Titles and Responsibilities 3. Fabricated Education and Degrees 4. Exaggerated Language Proficiency 5. False Employment Dates 6. Invented Work Experience 7. Misrepresented Project Contributions 8. Overstated Technical Abilities 9. Claimed Awards and Honors That Were Never Received 10. Lied About Freelance Work 11. Untrue Volunteer Experiences 12. Falsified References 13. Incorrect Certification Details 14. Misleading GPA or Academic Achievements 15. Exaggerated Accomplishments and Results Source: Hloom.com
March 2025
NorthBaybiz 17
Pay to Play: Would employees take pay cut to work from home? Work Life Remote
By Jason Walsh
Flex workers place a high value on being able to work from home—but how much is it really worth to clock in from your bedroom in your PJs? About 5%, actually. That’s according
to a recent study by Harvard Business School researchers titled "The Rise of Remote Work: Evidence on Productivity and Preferences from Firm and Worker Surveys" published by the Journal of Economics & Management Strategy. According to the research, which polled
older than 50 were less likely to find value in a pay cut, with only 30% agreeing to only a 5% reduction. The desire to work from home at a cost varied by industry, with professionals and those in health and education valuing it the most, while traditionally site- specific professions like construction and manufacturing prioritizing it least. Participants in the research were asked twice about their willingness to accept a pay cut to work remotely—once in December 2021 and again in June 2022. Respondents whose jobs can’t be done remotely were not counted in the survey.
more than 2,300 workers, nearly 40% of employees
would take a 5% pay cut in order to keep working from home.
Approximately 9% would take as much as a 20% cut to remain remote. Workers
4 Reasons Managers Don’t Like Remote Work
n Bad for new hires n Disrupts ability to work as a team
n Results in 3.5 fewer hours worked a week, according to a report by Liberty Street Economics n Productivity drops [Source: Yahoo!Finance]
18 NorthBaybiz
March 2025
A look at the key figures shaping life in the North Bay The Month In Numbers
Sonoma County Document this!
29,000 Estimated number of undocumented immigrants residing in Sonoma County in 2024, according to the Migration Policy Institute.
$500k Amount approved Feb. 4 by the Sonoma County Board of Supervisors to support educating immigrant communities about their legal rights related to immigration status in this time of ‘uncertainty nationwide.’
$258 million Amount Sonoma County’s undocumented
residents contribute to public services annually, according to national averages from the California Budget & Policy Center.
Cheaper by the dozen?
$9.17 Average price of a dozen eggs in California, according to a Feb. 14 report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
$2 Surcharge on egg dishes at Mac’s Deli in Santa Rosa; other restaurants are considering similar menu charges while prices of eggs remain at all-time highs.
Napa County
Glamptown races
100 Number of upscale trailers, yurts and tents (plus a pool) proposed as a 12.5-acre luxury ‘glamping’ resort along a flood-prone area of Milliken Creek near the Silverado Trail in Napa.
1,195 Signatures of Napa residents gathered for a change.org petition opposing the so-called Grange Campground. The proposal was rejected Feb. 18 in a 2-3 vote by the Napa City Council. 14% Portion of the Buck Institute’s $63 million budget that would be lost if the cap takes effect, an amount Buck CEO Eric Verdin says calls into question “the survival of the institute.” Source: Marin Independent Journal
Marin County
Buck trends
$8–10 million Estimated funding gap the Buck Institute for Research on Aging would face if the Trump administration’s proposed 15% cap on certain grant-associated costs from the National Institute of Health go into effect.
March 2025
NorthBaybiz 19
Custom Cabinetry by Trinity Engineering
Our roots run deep in this community. Our founder Bruce Omholt moved Trinity Engineering from Grand Rapids Michigan to Rohnert Park in 1981. For 45 years the team at Trinity Engineering has worked to exceed our client’s expectations of quality, value, and service. Our principal goal continues to be building strong client relationships. As a trusted team partner, Trinity Engineering is dedicated to the success of every project. Through Trinity Engineering’s rich and diverse history our market base has gone through significant changes. We have met those challenges head on and refused to be limited or categorized as a company. As with most businesses that enjoy long term success, we have evolved and adapted to the market’s needs. We understand the importance of clear communication and work closely with contractors, architects, and designers to lay the ground work that will change ideas and concepts into reality. Trinity continues to be a single source for integrated projects that require more than basic millwork. Our team’s experience with metal fabrication, glass, plastics, lighting, and finishing enables us to control entire scopes of work under one roof. We have built projects coast to coast and internationally but our local portfolio is what keeps us nested in this incredible region. Throughout the North Bay we have had the privilege to showcase our work in illustrious wineries, gourmet restaurants, esteemed hotels, elite retail establishments, and spectacular dream homes.
Local, national and international experience since 1980 Call for a beautiful and seamless conclusion to your project. 707.585.2959 • trinityengineering.com
20 NorthBaybiz
March 2025
Tech Talk
Situational Awareness: Understanding the rapid advancement of AGI By Michael E. Duffy L ast month, I wrote about the state of developments in Artificial Intelligence (AI), and the drive toward Artificial
required by some part of the LLM, meaning you can do more with whatever amount of computation used. Unhobbling improvements are harder to quantify, though. Again, from the article, “Imagine if when asked to solve a hard math problem, you had to instantly answer with the very first thing that came to mind. It seems obvious that you would have a hard time, except for the simplest problems. But, until recently, that’s how we had LLMs solve math problems.” Asking an LLM to explain its approach step-by- step, the so-called “Chain of Thought,” is one approach used to “unhobble” LLMs. Another, “Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback,” is what
General Intelligence (AGI), software that is as smart (or smarter!) than a human being across a broad range of subjects. Despite my skepticism about AGI, this paper (situational-awareness. ai/) from June 2024 makes some compelling supporting arguments that it’s nearly here. So, I thought I’d break it down for my readers in a way that cuts through the jargon. The author, Leopold Aschenbrenner, contends that there are currently a few hundred people in the world with the situational
awareness (the title of his paper) to really predict what is likely to happen with AI/AGI. Aschenbrenner is a smart twenty-something—graduated from Columbia University in 2021 at age 19 as valedictorian—who worked at OpenAI (he was fired in April 2024 for ostensibly leaking information), and believes he is one of those people. His first argument is that AGI will become a reality by 2027. Specifically, Aschenbrenner states, “it is strikingly plausible that by 2027, models will be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer.” He bases this on the roughly four-year span between GPT-2 (2019) and today’s GPT-4, which he describes as a change in “intelligence” from a preschooler that could “string together a few plausible sentences” to a smart high school student that is “beating the vast majority of high schoolers on whatever tests we can give it.” This argument is based on “counting the OOMs,” OOM being shorthand for Order Of Magnitude, i.e. a 10x change in something. To quote the article, “With each OOM of effective compute, models predictably, reliably get better. If we can count the OOMs, we can (roughly, qualitatively) extrapolate capability improvements.” Of course, this begs the questions: a) what is “effective compute,” and b) does it really track a model getting “better” (which is a loose term). The amount of work (“compute”) actually used to train large-language models (LLMs) like GPT can be measured in terms of the number of computing operations performed. It appears that the difference between GPT-2 and GPT-4 is about five OOMs, or 100,000 times as much, enabled by faster hardware and coupled together in larger and larger clusters. On top of this actual measurement, Aschenbrenner introduces the idea of “effective compute,” which are changes that effectively multiply the actual compute cycles involved. He cites two distinct multipliers: algorithmic improvements (i.e. using the actual compute cycles in a more productive way), and various “unhobbling,” improvements, representing strategic changes. Aschenbrenner explains algorithmic improvements thusly: “For example, a better algorithm might allow us to achieve the same performance but with 10x less training compute. In turn, that would act as a 10x (1 OOM) increase in effective compute.” Algorithm improvements reduce the amount of computation
you might expect—having humans tell the models what they get wrong. Unhobbling doesn’t require extra computing power—it just allows an LLM to work smarter, not harder. Combining these three factors—more compute, algorithmic advances and unhobbling—Aschenbrenner estimates that by 2027, GPT’s effective compute power will increase by another five orders of magnitude (100,000x). Aschenbrenner asserts that no great leap of faith is required to believe this. I’m going to re-quote him, adding a bit more context in the second sentence: “It is strikingly plausible that by 2027, models will be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer. That doesn’t require believing in sci-fi; it just requires believing in straight lines on a graph.” That five OOM jump, taking LLMs from smart high school student to autonomous AI researcher, is important. Imagine a tireless research worker, focused on the problem of improving their own software “brain.” That means the rate of improvement may potentially skyrocket. It is both awesome, and terrifying. Maybe Aschenbrenner is wrong in his estimates of how quickly we are, as he puts it, “moving through the OOMs.” And there are possible blocks to further progress, foremost being running out of data to train new generations of LLMs, which are already trained on a significant proportion of the entire internet’s worth of content. But the trendline is very clear, and—barring problems—AGI isn’t just a possibility; it’s a looming reality. I know this has been a pretty dense read. But I want my readers to have a good understanding of what could be the greatest technological transition they’ve ever experienced—true thinking machines. With this gentle introduction in hand, I encourage you to read the original paper and form your own opinions. g
Michael E. Duffy is a senior software engineer and lives in Sonoma County. He has been writing about technology and business for NorthBay biz since 2001.
March 2025
NorthBaybiz 21
Digging deep into the Dutra quarry sale Residential neighbors still between a rock and a hard place as international quarry conglomerate brings its shovels to San Rafael
22 NorthBaybiz
March 2025
By Bill Meagher
CRH is a substantial company by any measure. Based in Dublin, Ireland, it boasts 78,500 employees, does business in 28 countries and produced almost $35 billion in revenues in 2023. It operates in 48 states, and that number would be 49 if Trump is successful in bringing Canada into the U.S. fold. (How would the flag look like if that happened? Sorry, got sidetracked.) According to its most up-to-date Securities and Exchange Commission quarterly filing, CRH made 28 acquisitions through
September of last year, and it’s focused on growth. So, its November 2024 acquisition of San Rafael’s Dutra Materials (the construction business tied to the quarry located on Point San Pedro Road) makes perfect sense. CRH (Cement Roadstone Holdings) is a building and construction supply business that distributes products including aggregate, cement and asphalt. It’s listed on both the New York Stock Exchange and the London Stock Exchange and has more than 50 subsidiaries. It’s a member of the Fortune 500 and was founded in 1970 when Cement Ltd. and Roadstone Ltd. merged.
The Dutra Quarry operates along Point San Pedro Road, sandwiched between the San Rafael Bay to the east, popular McNears Beach to the north and several San Rafael residential neighborhoods to the south and west. [Photo courtesy Dutra Quarry]
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The Irish company now operates at 1000 Point San Pedro Road in what’s been long known as the Dutra Quarry. Technically, Dutra still owns the quarry, but Dutra Materials now belongs to CRH Americas, and the Dutra employees now have their paychecks signed by CRH. The quarry produces rip rap, sand, asphalt, base rock and drain rock. Parent company The Dutra Group has a trio of business segments with dredging, marine construction and materials. As a part of the sale arrangement, Dutra operates the barging operation that takes materials out of the quarry via the bay on behalf of CRH on a contract basis. This makes sense since Dutra has barging expertise and CRH has supply-side knowhow. Going forward CRH is in charge of quarry operations and the continued reclamation of the Dutra property. Dutra of course has property in Petaluma as well, known as Hayland Stack—a location where Dutra had hoped to build an asphalt plant just off the Petaluma River. But that project stalled out during the permitting process. It also has a location in Richmond. The sale of Dutra’s business to CRH took place late last year. Oddly enough, it was only the second foothold that CRH had in California. The company previously acquired BoDean Company Inc. and Northgate Ready Mix LLC in Santa Rosa. Given the construction trade in California and CRH’s appetite for growth, entry into the Golden State was long in coming. Aimi Dutra, the head of community relations for Dutra, said that her family wasn’t looking to sell the quarry operation or shopping it on the market. In the past other suitors had come calling, but none of those overtures rose to a serious deal. When CRH approached Dutra, the local company felt it was a good fit for its needs as well as the community. The deal process took more than a year to come together. (When
we spoke, Aimi Dutra was as forthcoming as she could be, but reading between the lines of her comments, it’s clear that CRH is calling the shots when it comes to what her company is allowed to talk about. She was professional as she answered questions but also treaded carefully in what she shared.) Dutra’s original business got started in the Delta, close to the Rio Vista Bridge. Created in 1972 as a dredging service, the company grew from a literal backwater organization into commercial endeavor that not only helped shape the California Delta but operates on a national and even international basis. While it has its own museum in Rio Vista, its headquarters is in the Canal neighborhood of San Rafael on Kerner Boulevard. “This deal allows us to come full circle back to our marine roots,” she says. Aimi Dutra says going forward the company will look at expanding its marine and dredging business on a national basis. The Dutra-CRH deal was made quietly last year, with Dutra retaining the quarry property but not the quarry business. The announcement about the transaction was just four paragraphs long but it did include a dandy photo of the quarry on a bright sunny day. It also included an obligatory quote from Scott Parson, president of Americas Materials Solutions, the division of CRH where Dutra Materials now lives. “We are delighted to welcome Dutra Materials into the CRH family. Following our entry into the state of California earlier this year via the acquisitions of BoDean Company and Northgate Ready Mix, we are excited to expand our presence in California and further enhance our ability to provide integrated solutions to customers in this attractive market.” And if that doesn’t stick a lump in your throat, well you just aren’t in touch with your feelings. The announcement by CRH didn’t include a quote from anybody
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March 2025
at Dutra. As a senior reporter at digital financial news outlet The Deal, I see probably 25 of these statements a week in my inbox. And while there are no hard and fast rules about what has to be included, there are some standard ingredients. One of them is a quote from both the acquirer and the acquiree. The quotes always depict the transaction as the best thing ever. Quite often they include the advisors who helped pull off the deal, the value of the transaction and how the acquisition will help shape the surviving company. The deal announcement came from CRH, the controlling partner in the transaction, so they determined what information would be included. Aimi Dutra says she had worked hard on a press release about the sale and sent it to CRH. After it was run through the chain of command, it was a mere shadow of itself. No price for the Dutra operation was included, and Dutra demurred from revealing that information, pointing to their status as a private company, though she did detail that it was an all-cash transaction. “I know you have to ask,” Dutra said. Which is absolutely true, and the fact that no value was included by CRH means that is how they want it. That said, the last thing Dutra wants to do is upset CRH since they have to work with them on a continuing basis via the barge business. However, CRH is a public company which is obligated to report developments that are deemed “material.” This is a semi-nebulous word used by the Securities and Exchange Commission to protect investors and ensure that public companies present important information to their shareholders. So, in the report known as a 10-K, the annual report required of every public company, it will have to reveal the value of the deal when it does file the report for 2024. I pointed this out to CRH in an email. The following was their response. Crickets. There was no response.
Dutra purchased the San Rafael quarry in 1986, at a time when residential development was on the uptick near the shores along the east side of the city.
intensified. Neighbors complained of more dust and noise. The quarry erected buildings on its property without obtaining county permits. In 2001, the Marin County Grand Jury looked into the quarry operations and questioned just how serious the county was about overseeing operations. The grand jury report concluded that while the quarry was operating at a higher level, the county had, in many ways, failed to deal with those changes. Meanwhile relations between quarry neighbors and Dutra deteriorated. The Point San Pedro Coalition was formed in 1999 to represent the interests of east San Rafael quarry neighbors—from 25 neighborhoods including Peacock Gap, Loch Lomond and Villa Real. In 2003, lawsuits were filed by the coalition, the State of California, a small group of neighbors and the County of Marin against the quarry. A judge initially ordered the quarry to halt operations and that an amended reclamation plan be drafted. The quarry agreed to put the reclamation plan together and the judge allowed the quarry to continue to operate. The wheels of bureaucracy grind slowly and a valid environmental impact report (EIR) took six years to complete, with the EIR tied to both the reclamation plan and an updated operating permit. The county signed off in 2010. The operating permit came with 172 different conditions which included change to blasting regulations, air testing, marsh restoration and a repaving of a portion of Point San Pedro Road. The Dutra Group has built a formidable business, in part by being in the right place at the right time. In June 2004, the State of California awarded an emergency contract to Dutra to repair the Jones Tract levee failure in San Joaquin County. To accomplish the repair on time, the company asked the County of Marin to allow it to operate 24 hours a day. The county said no, but Dutra got the job done 20 days early anyway. While relations between the neighbors and the quarry have at
For the record CRH declined to comment for this story or make anyone available to participate in an interview. And while the sole response from the company was both professional and polite, it didn’t explain why there would be no chat. They wrote they hoped I would understand. Alas, I do not. A look back at the quarry In the interest of full disclosure, I’m familiar with the quarry because years ago I covered issues over Dutra’s operations for the Pacific Sun . Dutra purchased the quarry in 1986 with a non-conforming status attached to the property. That’s planning speak meaning that Dutra could operate the quarry but could not expand the property or grow its use. If you are asking yourself what a quarry is doing in a residential area, that’s a fair question. The quarry in one form or another has been around since 1870. But a previous quarry owner had told the county in 1982 it planned on shutting down the operation and pursuing a different use for the land. Based on this information, more residential development took place. But in the best tradition of competing uses, neighborhoods and the quarry would inevitably have challenges coexisting. Some houses were added, and the quarry continued to operate. In other words, trucks leaving and arriving at the quarry shared the road with residents driving to work, going to the grocery store and running the kids to soccer. The quarry blew rock from its walls and some neighborhood windows shook. More conflict arose when the quarry’s production increased, and its hours of operation grew. Truck traffic in and out of the quarry
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