TECHNICAL Forecasts show there will be just over 1.6 billion active SVoD subscriptions worldwide. We are likely to witness the transition point when the number of UHD subscriptions overtakes standard HD, with 51% of those – equivalent to 888 million – being premium 4K services watched on UHD-enabled equipment.
funded cable and satellite TV controlled by broadcasters to ad-supported OTT video services controlled by streaming service providers. Having end-to-end control of the video delivery chain allows them to build vertically integrated and more economic solutions by selecting codecs and video formats tailored specifically for their services. In tandem, the addressable market for HEVC-capable video entertainment devices continues to rise, expected to approach an installed base of 10 billion units worldwide by 2030, the upshot being that device support is no longer a blocking issue to HEVC deployment. Meanwhile, HEVC has a competitor. Support for AV1 is now being introduced into smartphones, with Apple and Qualcomm adding the necessary decode hardware into the new A-Series and Snapdragon SoCs, respectively. iOS and Android devices will proliferate. AV1 will penetrate further into Tablets, since they often use similar semiconductor technology, the result being that an addressable market of over a billion devices will emerge quickly in response. And what about the market opportunities beyond? Even with the proposition of more efficient replacement codecs such as VVC and AV2 on the horizon, SVoD companies and OTT video service providers are unlikely to expand business significantly into 8K UHD video. 4K HDR is considered sufficient, and the expected low penetration of 8K-capable consumer entertainment devices in the short to medium term presents the formidable challenge of supporting a potentially more expensive business model with even fewer addressable consumers. And this looks even more unlikely to be mitigated by alternative entertainment form- factors where 8K resolution finds better application, such as virtual reality and spatial computing. Finally, new methods of creating video will undoubtedly emerge. Generative AI can create convincing audio and visual assets entirely artificially, so the future for video coding must surely intersect with synthetic media. AI processing capability must expand considerably for such assets to be created on demand and at scale. But whatever happens, the future for video coding and entertainment looks destined for significant transformation.
Futuresource is a market research consulting company that provides a range of specialist intelligence reports to support business decision-making. We pride ourselves on delivering fact-based insights and market forecasts on a global scale – advising on strategic positioning, identifying key trends, analysing competitors, and underpinning major technological developments. www.futuresource-consulting.com/ meet-futuresource/
Of the 1.6 billion SVoD subscriptions in 2023, UHD accounted for 51% globally
The market for UHD is growing by 20% annually and is expected to retain double digit growth for the next couple of years. Whilst Latin America plus the Middle East and Africa will deliver the largest yearly percentage growth, the Asia Pacific region is expected to provide the largest number of net additions. This was forecast at just over 47 million last year, outpacing combined net additions in Europe during the same period. Continued expansion is driven by an increasing number of households being ready to receive 4K streaming services. This is assisted by the continued penetration of UHD capabilities in TV and STB shipments, which is creating sustained growth in the install base.
InterDigital is a global research and development company focused primarily on wireless, video, AI, and related technologies. We design and develop foundational technologies that enable connected, immersive experiences in a broad range of communications and entertainment products and services. We license our innovations worldwide to companies providing such products and services, including makers of wireless communications devices, consumer electronics, IoT devices, cars and other motor vehicles, and providers of cloud- based services such as video streaming. As a leader in wireless technology, our engineers have designed and developed a wide range of innovations that are used in wireless products and networks, from the earliest digital cellular systems to 5G and today’s most advanced Wi-Fi technologies. We are also a leader in video processing and video encoding/ decoding technology, with a significant AI research effort that intersects with both wireless and video technologies. www.interdigital.com
Future potential
The content industry is transitioning towards 4K services as the new baseline. All leading video streaming services, including Netflix, Amazon Prime and Hulu, presently offer 4K HDR content streamed via the Internet. Therefore, the switch from AVC to newer codecs – notably HEVC and AV1 – is now a pragmatic and sustained objective; indeed, our study discovers that these new codecs are unlikely to be displaced until early into the new decade. Following the success in media streaming products, service providers are launching their own branded smart TVs. This is redefining business models to ensure they become more central to the overall TV experience. In fact, the industry has almost come full circle, going from ad-
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Volume 46 No.3 September 2024
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