RENNIE OUTLOOK 2022
This past year was once again a year of extremes. Fortunately, these extremes were—for the most part—less painful than those of 2020, when the pandemic suppressed our economy, our ability to travel, and the frequency with which we were with family and friends. Said extremes from 2021, which included record resale and pre-sale counts, historic job growth (or, more precisely, job recovery), and inf lation that we haven’t experienced in 20 years, were somewhat—how should we say it—“problematic” for the predictions we laid out at the beginning of last year as part of the 2021 rennie outlook. To be fair, we were fairly spot- on about some things (housing starts, wage growth, interest rates, and migration), but we were way off about others (see: housing market activity). Having here noted that we were previously “right” or “wrong” in our myriad predictions, we are behooved to also note that the value of providing the predictions contained herein lies not just in the numbers themselves, but also in the context and logic that we share that underpins the predictions. With that in mind, we hope you find this 2022 edition of the rennie outlook useful. For each element considered in this report, thedirectionof ourprediction is indicatedbyan increase over recent trends (an “up” arrow), no significant change (a “side-to-side” arrow), or a decrease (a “down” arrow).
table of contents .
2 INTRO 3 HOUSING 5 POPULATION 7 JOBS, INFLATION & INTEREST RATES
All the best in 2022, and stay safe.
RyanWyse Senior Analyst
Ryan Berlin Senior Economist & Director of Intelligence rberlin@rennie.com
rwyse@rennie.com
Copyright © 2022 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of February 3, 2022. All data from Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley & Rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of 2
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