RENNIE OUTLOOK 2022
housing: an off-the-charts 2021 sets the stage for 2022
RESALES
At the outset of 2021, we foresawa housingmarket that would continue to recover, withmost signs pointing to increased activity over 2020’s level. This ended up being true in spades. Our prediction of 50,000 year-endMLS sales count would prove to bewell short of what was ultimately a record-setting year, with theVancouver Region tallyingmore than 70,000 sales–the most in the region’s history. While many of 2021’s demand-side tailwinds are likely to support sales activity in 2022 (including demographic and financial factors), emerging headwinds (such as record-low housing inventory, rising interest rates, and affordability challenges) will cap sales counts well below the historic highs from last year.
OUR 2022 OUTLOOK Record in-migration in 2022 and an accumulation of wealth through 2021 (as measured by the value of mortgage-free and household savings) will be offset by market headwinds (per the above) to yield 56,000 MLS sales in 2022. This would be 21% below 2021 but 10% above the long-run average. We expect this sales total to comprise 20,000 houses, 8,000 townhomes, and 28,000 condos.
RESALES
PRE-SALES
Metro Vancouver’s pre-sale market rode the wave of a strong resale market in 2021, with the double-digit percentage increases in resale values across all home types providing pre-sale buyers (including end-users and investors) with the confidence to participate in great numbers in the region’s housing futures market. Of the 26,000 pre-sales in 2021, a record 12,900 concrete homes sold, a record 6,600 woodframe homes sold, and a record 6,500 townhomes sold. The overall pre-sale count was 28% above the previous high of 20,300 in 2016, and 90% above the past-decade average.
OUR 2022 OUTLOOK On the heels of a record-setting 26,000 pre-sales in 2021, activity is likely to slow in 2022 due a combination of home supply constraints and rising interest rates. We expect to see 21,000 pre-sales in Metro Vancouver in 2022—the 2nd-highest count ever—including 10,000 concrete homes and 11,000 woodframe homes and townhomes.
PRE-SALES
Copyright © 2022 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of February 3, 2022. All data from Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley & Rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of 3
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