All the hullabaloo of 2022 The full-year numbers characterizing Vancouver’s housing market in 2022 belie two distinct 6-month stretches, the latter of which concluded with December’s 1,963 MLS sales marking a 6th-straight month of fewer than 3,000 transactions—the most protracted slowdown in a decade.
Despite the prolonged slowdown in sales that characterized the second half of 2022, there were only 10,876 homes available for purchase across the Vancouver Region by the end of December. Sure, this was 61% higher than the record-low inventory of one year ago, but more tellingly it was 10% below the long-run average. Furthermore, the region’s total listing count slipped below the 10,000-mark on January 1st after end-of-year expiries and cancellations took effect. As of writing this report a week into January, total listings remain below 10,000. With another potential interest rate increase from the Bank of Canada looming on January 25th, it’s unlikely that housing market activity will evolve away from its recent (and current) trajectory in the near-term. Having said that, our view is that meaningful changes in our market dynamics may reveal themselves as early as Q2, and for details pertaining to our market outlook, we encourage you to read the 2023 edition of the rennie outlook, which we’ll publish at the end of January.
In the past two editions of the rennie review (here and here), we noted that the Vancouver Region was on pace for 6 consecutive months with less than 3,000 MLS sales. And with the final December numbers tallied, not only is that what transpired, but December actually recorded fewer than 2,000 transactions. Last month’s 1,963 sales in the region were 55% less than December 2021’s pandemic-bloated tally, 39% less than the past-10-year average, and were the lowest of any December since 2018. This marks the first time in a decade that the region has recorded 6 straight months (and possibly counting) without hitting the 3,000 threshold. And with December now in the books, we can observe how the once-in- a-decade slowdown of the past half-year fits within the broader context of 2022. Last year’s total MLS sales finished at 43,624, which is 38% less than the record-setting total from 2021 and 14% less than the past-10-year
average. That total sales were only 14% less than a typical year speaks to the divergent experience of 2022’s first and second halves: almost two-thirds of all sales last year (28,253) occurred between January and June, while the remaining one-third (15,371 sales) occurred between July and December. This 65%-35% split in sales counts between the first and second halves of 2022 compares to a more typical split of 52%-48%, and was the most skewed sales distribution since 1982. Interestingly, if the pace of sales in the first half of the year continued through the balance of 2022, the Vancouver Region would have tallied more than 54,000 sales, which would have represented the second-highest annual total since 2017. Conversely, if the pace of transactions in the second half of the year had prevailed for the entire 12 months of 2022, it would have yielded just over 32,000 sales, for what would have been the lowest annual total since 2000.
Copyright © 2022 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of January , . All data from Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley & Rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 3
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