RUNNING OF THE BULLS
ensues – rising prices amplify stories that seem to justify high valuations, which attract
Often, prices fall below pre-bubble levels. The asset in question becomes universally hated. And eventually, the smart money starts buying again, recognizing the panic has created an opportunity to buy assets at cheap prices. And the process starts all over again... Where are we now with many asset classes? If you’re not sure... listen to your guy. THE NEXT BUBBLE TO LOOK OUT FOR: GARLIC Some bubbles... well, they just smell bad. In late 2015, the price of physical garlic started to rally. Heavy rains and then snow
an ever-increasing number of buyers. Even cynical traders join the buying,
expecting to sell to “greater fools.” Price gains become nearly parabolic. Paper fortunes are made and greed rules. Meanwhile, the smart money is selling to the dumb money. Blow-Off Phase: At some point, buying abates and a paradigm shift slowly – or sometimes quickly – unfolds. Market participants experience the stock equivalent of a brain-breaking hangover. Sellers who were in the catbird seat now can’t find a buyer for love or money. Leveraged speculators face margin calls and are forced to sell. The decline becomes a crash. In this stage, prices fall faster than they rose when the bubble was inflating.
THE FOUR STAGES OF A BUBBLE
“New Paradigm” III
VALUATION
Denial
Delusion
Return to “normal”
SMART MONEY INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS
PUBLIC
Bull trap
Fear
Enthusiasm
Capitulation
Media attention
Return to the mean
First sell off
Bear trap
Take off
Despair
Stealth Phase
Awareness Phase Mania Phase Blow-Off Phase
TIME
38
March 2021
Made with FlippingBook - professional solution for displaying marketing and sales documents online