seasonal increases aside, King County ’ s sales counts remain depressed In June, King County’s housing market saw its second consecutive month of increase in sales and listings, however, sales counts failed to reach the 3,000 threshold for the twelfth consecutive month. Despite slowing inflation, speculation remains regarding another interest rate hike, potentially increasing economic uncertainty and impacting market activity.
sellers, it shouldn’t come as much of a surprise that prices increased last month, even in the face of historically low sales. The overall median sold price in King County increased 1.2% in June to $820,000, though was still 2% below June of last year and 7% less than peak values achieved in April 2022. Looking ahead, in spite of a slowing rate of inflation to 3.0% year-over-year nationally in June (from 4.0% in May), many economists are predicting the Federal Reserve to increase its policy rate another 25 basis points on July 26th. If they do follow through with another hike, this will have implications for our local housing market, potentially resulting in reduced sales counts beyond the typical summer slowdown.
Accompanying the advancement of the calendar into June was a relatively predictable trend in our local housing market: increasing sales counts and growing listings, both of which typically expand from May to June. And while each of these metrics increased from the previous month at a rate in line with their historical averages, there is more than just typical seasonality at play. Total sales in King County rose by 6% month-over-month to 2,482, which was slightly below but broadly in line with the typical 9% May-to-June increase. They were, however, 31% below June’s past- decade average (of 3,613), the lowest June total since 2010. It was also the 12th consecutive month of fewer than 3,000 sales, something not seen in King County since early 2013. Total inventory in June presents a similar narrative — it was 9% higher month-over-month, totalling
3,882, right on pace with the typical June expansion of 6%. That’s 34% less than the past-decade average (of 5,859), and it was the second-lowest June inventory ever (the data goes back to 2006). That buyers and sellers are participating more in June than in May follows the typical seasonal, however, that the sales and listings totals are low from a historical perspective makes sense amidst the current high interest rate environment. Anticipation regarding another potential rate hike is creating economic uncertainty in the housing market and is likely keeping potential buyers and sellers on the sidelines. With just 1.6 months of inventory (MOI), the overall market favored sellers in June (a sellers’ market is classified as such when the MOI is less than 4). Compared to May, there was a slight increase in the MOI from 1.5. Given the backdrop of market conditions that deeply favor
Copyright © 2023 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of July 18, 2023. All data from Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley & Rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 3
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