Volume 47 No. 2 May 2025
80 TH ANNIVERSARY
n Long Read: The Sorry State of Rare Earth Minerals n We talk to Nokia, Netceed, Ogi, Syndeo Institute, INCA n Plus - Insight from Technetix, Openvault, IQGEO, Witbe and Harmonic It’s our birthday! Let’s celebrate!
contents
VOLUME 47 NO. 2 - MAY 2025
editorial Editor’s Letter Welcome to the May 2025 issue of Broadband Journal.
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from the scte SCTE News All the latest news and events from the SCTE.
ISSN 1751-0791
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Thanks to our supporters The SCTE ® is grateful to the following supporters for their continued support of Broadband Journal: Amphenol, ANGA, Netceed, Technetix, Webro, Corning and Wisi.
scte benelux news Benelux News All the latest news and events from the SCTE’s Benelux Group.
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scte balkans news SCTE Balkans Update from Ambassador-at-Large
SCTE ® - The Society for Broadband Professionals
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scte long read How On Earth Did It Come To This? The Sorry State of Rare Earth Minerals
Officers and Members of the Executive Committee President and Chair Dr Anthony Basham FSCTE Vice President Dave Hodges FSCTE Director Dr Roger Blakeway FSCTE Secretary Beverley Walker FIAM Members Laura Baskeyfield, Keith Bail, Melissa Cogavin, George Dyckes, Costas Kyriacou, Peter Sealey, Chris Swires and Peter Veerman
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from the industry Industry News The latest global news from the industry. scte member focus Zelal Keskin, Expert HFC Engineer, VodafoneZiggo
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26 32 38 42 46 48 52 56 58 68
Interview WITH Ben Allwright, OGI
SCTE ® Communications House, 41a Market Street, Watford, Hertfordshire WD18 0PN, UK Tel: +44 (0) 1923 815500
The dangers of expedited telecoms work Turning Bandwidth Into Brandwidth
A Dual Mandate for Broadband Providers: Maintaining an acceptable ROI while meeting broadband growth demands
office@theSCTE.eu www.theSCTE.eu
Building a connected Britain through location data The Reconstruction of the Telecommunications Landscape
Managing Editor Melissa Cogavin Tel: +44 (0)7501 780342 melissa@theSCTE.eu
From Infrastructure to intelligence: AI and the rise of self-aware networks
Paddy Paddison In The Hot Seat
Why the low take up and how to fix it?
Nokia’s Triple Play: Fibre, Fixed Wireless and the Power of Automation: An Interview with Stefaan Vanhastel Reimagining Digital Infrastructure: How HPC, AI and Cooling Innovation Are Redefining the Data Centre
Publisher Evolution Print & Design Ltd 143 Cavendish Road, Leicester LE2 7PJ, UK
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Tel: +44 (0) 116 274 7700 sales@evolutiondc.co.uk
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How The Syndeo Institute Is Amplifying Industry Innovation
Broadband Journal is published on behalf of the SCTE ® (Society for Broadband Professionals) by Evolution Print and Design Ltd. Neither the editor nor the Society, as a body, is responsible for expression of opinion appearing in the journal unless otherwise stated. Papers and contributions for consideration for publication in Broadband or for reading at meetings are welcome and should be sent to Melissa Cogavin. Letters Broadband Journal is your forum for debate on issues affecting the industry. Let us have your news and views. Write to The Editor, c/o Communications House, marking your letter ‘for publication’ or email melissa@theSCTE.eu. For reasons of space, we reserve the right to edit letters published in Broadband .
Beyond Speed: Elevating Subscriber Experience with Unified DOCSIS 4.0, Low-Latency Services and Fibre Optionality 84 From Lab to Field: How AI and Remote Monitoring Are Revolutionising QA for Video Services 88
technical The Isle of Wight’s Big Copper Switch Off
90 94 98
Will hyperautomation replace automation in telecoms?
State of the Private 4G/5G Market
spotlight Bridging the Rural Divide: How Technetix rOLT is Transforming Fibre Access
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© 2025 Broadband Journal Information in Broadband Journal may not be reproduced, changed or used without prior written permission from the SCTE ® .
startup zone Elemendar: A Startup Revolutionising Cybersecurity with AI
110 112 114
Hicomply: Revolutionising Information Security
Secretarium: A global leader in Confidential Computing, the art of demonstrating data privacy and protection
industry events ANGA COM 2025 Conference Programme acronym explainer
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service finder products EXFO’s AXS-130 Compact OTDR
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diary dates
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May 2025 Volume 47 No.2
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EDITORial
Editor’s Letter
at the Tower of London – ticket details on page 7), you’ll find plenty of news, comment, technical writing, interviews, product reviews, thought leadership and a deep dive into Rare Earth Minerals in this edition’s Long Read (page 14). We cover AI with Witbe (page 88), Unified DOCSIS 4.0 with Harmonic (page 84), ROI by our friends at Openvault (page 46), the copper switch off with WightFibre on page 90, automation as a topic is addressed with Geoff Buddington of Netceed on page 74 and Stefaan Vanhastel of Nokia on page 70, and in a white paper by WeAreCortex on page 94. A global view of 4G/5G market drivers including vital forecasts are considered on page 98 by Celona. We talk to Brad White on page 42, Paddy Paddison on page 52, Steve Harris on page 52, the Syndeo Institute about their 40th Anniversary plans on page 78 and there is a special 5 page section in the middle of the magazine detailing the schedule at ANGA COM this year, including our own Wednesday lunchtime panel moderated by our President, Dr Anthony Basham (page 62- 67). Thanks to our good friends at ANGA COM for their support and friendship. Further to a very successful SCTE® Presents: Rural Broadband & The Last Mile event in March the rural theme has remained a hot topic, covered in an interview with Ben Allwright of Ogi on page 32 and in this issue’s Spotlight (page 106), where Technetix give us the low down on the rOLT solution for remote communities. Date for your diary – June 25. Our next SCTE® Presents: Across The Pond takes place in London with a focus on our good friends in North America – details on page 6.
As we hurtle toward ANGA COM for this issue, the second of 2025, it’s worth taking a moment to remind ourselves that this year is a bit of a special one. The SCTE is 80 years old this year! It’s a good opportunity to take stock of who we are, what we have achieved, what our purpose is going forward in an industry characterised by change more than most, and acknowledge what you, our members, mean to us. Over the 80 years the world has changed beyond recognition – how we communicate, work, earn money, shop, look after ourselves, consume media and travel; everything has been impacted by the Digital Revolution and the broadband industry is an undeniable, integral part of that shift. 80 years ago this week we marked VE Day, liberating Europe and a promise to never again revisit those dark times. The world is an unstable place right now and who knows what the future holds, but on the ground, life is much the same for most of us, and while the Digital Revolution continues to influence us the things that make us human have endured, and our relationships continue. The best thing about this industry is the people, and when I interview members, sponsors, industry figures for Broadband Journal that point comes across loud and clear – demonstrated by the fact hardly anyone ever seems to leave! It’s a very special community that I feel grateful to be a part of. In this issue, bookended by birthday parties (one at ANGA COM kindly sponsored by Openvault and the Syndeo Institute at the Cable Center) and our Gala Dinner taking place on June 21
Melissa Cogavin Broadband Journal SCTE ® , Society for Broadband Professionals melissa@theSCTE.eu www.theSCTE.eu
See you at ANGA COM!
Melissa Cogavin
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May 2025 Volume 47 No.2
EDITORial
As we celebrate the 80th anniversary of the SCTE, I am honoured to reflect on the legacy and future of a Society that continues to play a vital role in our industry. Since its founding in 1945, the SCTE has brought together engineers, technologists and innovators with a shared mission: to advance technical knowledge, promote best practices and support the growth of the broadband and media sectors. From the earliest days of cable and television transmission to today’s world of fibre networks, streaming and smart infrastructure, the SCTE has stood at the forefront of change. We’ve witnessed—and contributed to—some of the most transformative moments in our industry’s history. Throughout, our commitment to education, collaboration and excellence has remained constant. Eighty years on, we are not just reflecting on a rich past—we are also looking forward. The world is changing faster than ever. We face new challenges: ensuring digital inclusion for rural and remote communities, improving resilience in the face of climate and energy concerns and developing the next generation of professionals. These are not small tasks, but the SCTE community has never shied away from complex problems. Highlighting the talking points and ensuring communication is possible, SCTE ® Presents offers an ideal stage for these discussions. Enabling opinions and questions to be posed and answered. Our strength lies in our members. It is your expertise, curiosity and passion that drives us forward. Whether through our networking events, conferences, training, publications like Broadband Journal, or our mentoring and outreach, the SCTE continues to be a place where knowledge is shared, ideas are nurtured and careers are built. Letter from Our President
Thank you to everyone who has contributed to our journey so far. Together, we have built something extraordinary. And together, we’ll shape the future of connectivity.
Here’s to the next 80 years of progress, partnership and purpose.
Dr Anthony Basham
scte news
SCTE ® Presents: Rural Fibre & The Last Mile March 18, One Great George Street, London
in the marketplace, examining the likely outcomes of consolidation and lack of subscribers. Finally, we looked to the future and welcomed Mark Waddell from the BBC and Malcolm Brew from Strathclyde University, Izzy Taylor and Dominic O’Reirdan who all offered workarounds to conventional fibre optic broadband and a vision for a future of 100% homes connected - it certainly seemed within reach that day. The final Open Session, where we invited all the speakers back for a free and open discussion with the audience, was – in our view – the best bit. All the sessions are available to watch on our YouTube channel, https://www.youtube.com/@thescte . Thanks to all who attended, we really enjoyed hosting you. Don’t forget our next event, SCTE® Presents: Across The Pond, a focus on North America, takes place at One Great George Street again on June 25. Register today!
Our newly relaunched networking event with a brand-new title certainly attracted attention and the theme, rural broadband couldn’t have been more topical. How do we know that? It was a sell-out event, that’s why! We were delighted to see so many of our good friends in the industry there to network, learn about the latest trends and cutting-edge technology from some of the best experts in the business. We were also very happy to meet so many new people and make some new friends. Sponsored by Technetix, Corning and Abloy, the day began with an overview of the broadband landscape, introduced by our President Dr Anthon Basham, who handed over to our moderator, James Saunby who guided our panelists through the bad weather, wayleaves, inaccessible rocks and remote outposts that are still yet to be connected to broadband of any notable speed, acknowledging the substantial achievements this industry has made in such a short space of time and during lockdown, no less. The next panel looked more closely a the obstacles, from economic viability to sheer competition
www.theSCTE.eu
FTTH – Melissa moderating panel
The FTTH Show took place in Amsterdam in March this year and was a slick event as always, well attended and certainly buzzy on the trade show floor, with some interesting topics and sessions. Expanding beyond the technicalities was a subject close to the heart of Roshene McCool, President of the FTTH Council Europe. Our editor Melissa Cogavin moderated a DE&I Workshop, featuring Roshene, Alessandro Pirri of Prysmian in Milan, Giada Cosentino of ZET Rome and Thomas Miller of Hamburg Commercial Bank.
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May 2025 Volume 47 No.2
SCTE NEWS
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Our membership is diverse and we have a rare opportunity to make the most of our North American friends joining us to celebrate our birthday at the Tower of London, so we have invited them to participate in a unique event, focusing on the broadband and telecoms landscape in North America for the first time. Featuring speakers from Technetix, Openvault, Witbe, WICT, Rincon, The Learning Alliance, Olive Street Media and The Syndeo Institute at the Cable Center, we’ll be examining the challenges, achievements, obstacles and opportunities from this most varied of continents, and will enjoy spending a great day with our friends Across The Pond. Come and join us – free to members, a nominal fee for non members. Register here!
SCTE ® PRESENTS: Across The Pond Wednesday 25 June, 2025 Institute of Civil Engineers One Great George Street, London SW1P 3AA
www.theSCTE.eu
Kindly sponsored by Technetix and Openvault – thank you for your support!
Platinum Sponsor
SILVER Sponsor
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May 2025 Volume 47 No.2
SCTE 80th Annual Gala Dinner & Awards 2025
Tickets, Tables and Sponsorship Opportunities
Saturday 21 June 2025 His Majesty’s Royal Palace and Fortress the Tower of London Black tie | Music and dancing
For more information, email bev@theSCTE.eu
scte news Interra Systems at ANGA COM 2025: Helping You Deliver OTT Streams With Better Quality and More Efficiency
layout has features like integrated relay workflows and intelligent segmentation.
accuracy and efficiency. ORION includes end-to-end ad insertion monitoring and supports Dolby Atmos, IPv6 and all-frame decoding. Attendees will also see the ORION Content Manager (OCM), which gives a centralised view of the streaming environment and performs quality tracing across the entire video workflow. New features at ANGA COM 2025 will include advanced probe management and improved user permission control, ensuring both efficient and secure video operations. Another Interra Systems highlight will be BATON, the company’s AI-driven, automated QC tool which ensures quality, compliance and workflow efficiency for diverse media formats and standards. The latest edition contains enhanced autoscaling, advanced 4K video quality checks, expanded format support, improved algorithms and usability upgrades. BATON Captions, the company’s multilingual captioning tool, will also be on display. This has been updated to include scene-aware caption placement and a host of QC and correction features — helping media professionals meet their customers’ high viewing standards. All updates use machine learning, automatic speech recognition, and natural language processing technologies, while a new UI
OTT streaming involves complex delivery chains with diverse devices, platforms, formats, and geographies, making consistent performance, compliance, and accessibility difficult to achieve. Similarly, in today’s market, competition and viewer expectations have never been higher. Poor quality of experience (QoE) can easily affect a video service provider’s brand, leading to customer churn, loss of ad revenue and lower ARPU — which is why flawless delivery is a must. At ANGA COM 2025, in Hall 7 Hub 5, Interra Systems will demonstrate its commitment to helping media professionals tackle these challenges and deliver the best possible quality of experience to their customers. The company offers integrated QC and monitoring to catch and resolve issues early; centralised analytics for root-cause diagnosis; real-time and client-side metrics to ensure playback integrity; and ad monitoring and low-latency support to protect monetisation and user trust. On display at Interra Systems’ stand will be the ORION Content Monitoring Suite for real-time and VOD monitoring of IP and OTT streams. The suite’s latest capabilities include a state-of-the-art multiviewer feature for visualising multiple video and audio streams in real time. With ORION, operators can quickly verify alerts and resolve issues, thereby maintaining high broadcast integrity with greater
Rounding out Interra Systems’ display will be the VEGA Media Analyzer (VMA) for standards compliance, debugging and stream interoperability assurance. VMA now supports an extensive range of compression standards for broad compatibility, including the latest in VVC, AV1, HEVC, MV-HEVC, AVS3, HDR, Dolby Vision, Dolby Atmos and ATSC 3.0. Finally, in a presentation titled ORION and the Strategic Benefits of Precise Video Quality Monitoring, Interra Systems’ VP of Product Management, Anupama Anantharaman will explain how ORION enhances video quality by monitoring key workflow stages — and why ORION is a must-have tool for media professionals. Attendees will learn about the solution’s role in detecting, analysing and troubleshooting quality issues in real time, ensuring all audiences receive an exceptional viewing experience — no matter the platform. This session will take place as part of the ‘IP Video, Monitoring and Monetization’ series of talks, and will be held on June 4 from 12:15-13:35pm on the Innovation Stage.
www.interrasystems.com
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Highlights n The UK’s independent (Altnet) operators remained resilient during the year, increasing their full network coverage by 27% year-on-year to reach 16.4 million premises at the end-2024. n Despite challenging market conditions, high global inflation, soaring energy and resource costs, combined altnet full fibre footprints covering cities, towns, and villages across the UK are keeping pace with Openreach’s 17.1 million premises at the close of 2024. n Almost three quarters of a million customers decided to switch to an altnet during 2024 leading to 2.7 million live connections (35% growth year-on-year) to independent fixed networks provided by full fibre gigabit capable connections. n With economic turbulence causing private investment into the sector to scale back, altnets will require the Government’s continued support to attract investment and reach the network coverage targets they have set for 2030. We expect the regulator to deliver a fair competitive marketplace, delivered via its Telecoms Access Review 2026 (TAR26). n Strategic mergers and acquisitions may become crucial for smaller players due to the economic climate, but Ofcom sees this almost as a regulatory necessity. In its TAR26 Consultation Document the regulator views smaller altnet consolidation into larger independent players as key to its regulatory framework for them to provide the necessary level of competition to rival that of Openreach. n For the second consecutive year, access to finance— combined with the broader economic outlook—remains the leading concern among altnet operators. With rising interest rates and ongoing inflationary pressures, many providers are finding it harder to secure the capital they need to scale networks and maintain operations. n Unsurprisingly, Ofcom’s upcoming Telecoms Access Review (TAR26) has surged up the list of concerns, rising five places to take the second spot. With 70% of respondents highlighting potential risks from the review’s outcome, there is a risk that the resulting framework could introduce further challenges to altnet sustainability—particularly if it weakens competitive protections or entrenches incumbent advantages. Metrics for the UK Independent Network Sector Report 2025
The UK’s independent network operators – altnets – are not just building networks, they’re building the foundation of a fairer, faster and more resilient digital United Kingdom. This year’s report, my first as INCA CEO, shows the continued growth of altnets from niche innovators to national competitors. In just a few years, altnets have grown to reach over a third of UK premises and often provide the only fibre connection in rural and hard-to-reach areas as well as previous urban not spots. From our towns and cities to our farms and homes, altnets have led the way in delivering faster, more affordable broadband with outstanding customer service and satisfaction. As we approach OFCOM’s Telecoms Access Review 2026 (TAR26), the decisions that are made now will shape the future of competition in UK Telecoms. We cannot allow dominance by legacy operators under the guise of market maturity. To allow for fair competition, altnets need the space to grow, regulatory certainty and above all a level playing field on pricing and access. The UK’s digital future will be won or lost in the next regulatory cycle. INCA is fighting to guarantee the altnets and their investors get a fair bet. INCA envisions a future where infrastructure competition thrives, and consumer choice is real. We call on the policymakers, the regulators and the investors to recognise the transformative impact of altnets and to provide a regulatory framework that empowers them. This report is more than a set of statistics – it’s a call to action. We must ensure that the positive change and impressive gains of the last decade are not lost through policy or regulatory missteps but instead are accelerated. The UK’s digital future and economic growth depend upon it.
Paddy Paddison CEO, INCA
For more information and to download the report in full visit
https://inca.coop/
May 2025 Volume 47 No.2
scte BEnelux News
The TechSummit Autumn Edition - focus on sustainability Save the date: Wednesday, 5 November 2025
but will be announced shortly after the summer via the website and newsletters. This event is once again organised in collaboration with our sister organisation NLconnect.
developments and sustainable processes will be the central theme of the TechSummit Autumn Edition. The event will take place on the afternoon of Wednesday, 5 November. The location and speakers are not yet confirmed
The cable and telecom sector is facing a rapidly growing demand for data, but this also requires significant amounts of energy and materials. At the same time, there is an urgent need to operate in a more environmentally friendly way. This tension between technological
Stay up to date with the latest news about SCTE Benelux. Follow us on LinkedIn or visit our website. Information on the website (www.sctebenelux.nl) is available in both Dutch and English. Follow SCTE Benelux Online
www.sctebenelux.nl
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scte BEnelux News
Successful TechSummit on Private 5G On Wednesday 9 April, SCTE Benelux and partner organisation NLconnect hosted the first TechSummit of 2025. The event took place at Odido Netherlands. The theme of the afternoon: “Private 5G – Cowboys or Professionals?” The title sparked a lot of curiosity, leading to a successful, sell-out event.
Our three speakers explored the rapidly growing field of private 5G. Richard Marijs (Odido Netherlands) discussed strategic applications, Jeroen Meuleman (Geuzenet) shared hands-on experiences, and Bart Heinink (Greenet) demonstrated how private 5G can produce reliable networks in practice. SCTE Executive Committee member Peter Veerman (DELTA Fiber) acted as moderator, guiding both the content programme and the discussion. Before the presentations, attendees were given a guided tour with an explanation of a 5G setup. Afterwards, there was a lively and valuable networking reception. The conclusion of this inspiring afternoon: private 5G is evolving from an experimental playground into a mature solution for business-critical applications.
www.sctebenelux.nl
May 2025 Volume 47 No.2
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scte balkans news
Letter from the Balkans Broadband Journal caught up with our Ambassador-at-Large, Besim Latifi based in Kosovo to find out what’s happening in the Balkans.
is fully harmonised, the chances of a sale happening increase significantly.
When a sale is underway — or in some cases, not underway— there are plenty of areas one can examine but ultimately, it all comes down to communication. In the art of sales, our goal is to solve problems, counter objectives and satisfy demands that come up during the negotiation process. How does this happen? Obviously, we learn a lot about how to sell, and through experience we encounter both moments of success and situations where the sale doesn’t happen. In communication, everything revolves around the interaction between people: giving and receiving information, converting thoughts into words, sending these messages effectively. In technology, we learn that interoperability — the ability of different systems to work together — is crucial. This only happens when devices ‘speak’ a common language through software. Let’s imagine sales work the same way: only good communication can build strong relationships with customers. Good communication means understanding ourselves, fully committing our time and energy to understanding what the customer wants and needs. If this cycle
The difficulty of human interaction and building trust is deeply rooted in our nature. Humans are wired to be suspicious and cautious when making decisions. Each interaction gives us a feeling about whether we should move forward with a deeper commitment. In any sales process, two things require implicit trust: the product itself and the person representing it. If there is a discrepancy in either, obstacles to closing the deal will arise. Good sales happen when we not only sell the product but also create a feeling of being satisfied or even thrilled with the decision. One of the most complex challenges is understanding why a sale does not happen. Are we self-aware enough to analyse honestly why we lose business? This step is crucial in a competitive environment. The interaction between likeability, trust and positive feelings between buyer and seller forms the foundation of any deal. Without this foundation, progressing further becomes a real challenge. Trust
Besim Latifi, SCTE Ambassador- At-Large
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is a process that requires significant time and energy to build. Different cultures approach trust differently, but in business, it can often be measured simply: do we do what we say we will do? Every time we demonstrate reliability, trust naturally grows. At the same time, mistrust can develop very quickly — faster than trust — because humans instinctively seek security. Often, our default is to mistrust first and only move toward trust gradually. Ultimately, anything good requires an investment of time and human energy.
our wants with the needs of the other party. This creates a realistic, grounded environment and a positive feeling around doing business. Sales is, at its core, the art of human communication, based on instincts honed over millennia — and no AI or future technology will ever fully replace or change that.
Business is the art of communication and there will never be a perfect scientific formula or a single magic book that solves this beautiful, complex puzzle. The art of communication is essential in all aspects of life and negotiation. Listening more than speaking creates a good atmosphere. Authentically showing interest in the conversation is a key ingredient for building strong relationships. When we listen, we have more control over ourselves. We feel, we understand, we project needs and we balance
www.theSCTE.eu
SCTE Istanbul 2026 The exhibition in Turkey is progressing; so far we have received positive feedback from authorities showing interest in mutual cooperation and we are now working on the next stage of the process, working with the Association of Telecom in Turkey. At this stage we are looking at securing a date in the second half of 2026.
Next Gen Networks Institute and Kosova Innovation Hub (KIH)
The Kosova Innovation Hub (KIH) is a modern and inclusive platform, established to foster innovation, technological advancement and the empowerment of youth in Kosovo. Founded by Next Gen Networks in partnership with the U.S. Embassy and the Municipality of Peja, KIH aims to serve as a reference centre for creativity, new ideas and sustainable development.
networking opportunities with global experts. n Mentorship and networking programs for startups, new businesses and individuals aiming to enter the tech industry. n Access to cutting-edge technologies and educational platforms like TechTonic Edu, enabling participants to gain certified knowledge.
What does KIH offer?
KIH’s Vision
n Advanced training programs in information technology, mobile networks (5G), fibre optics, cybersecurity, and innovation management.
To build a new generation of digital leaders who are not only prepared for the global job market but who also contribute to Kosovo’s economic growth and sustainable innovation.
n Hands-on workshops for young people, students, and professionals looking to develop their technical skills and leadership abilities. n International events such as Girls in ICT, Innovation Days, and Tech Bootcamps, bringing inspiration and
Our Motto
“Empowering ideas, driving innovation, building the future.”
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scte long read
Refuse, Rethink, Reduce, Reuse, Repair, Refurbish, Remanufacture, Repurpose and Recover
The Sorry State of Rare Earth Minerals How On Earth Did It Come To This? By Melissa Cogavin, Broadband Journal
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Refuse, Rethink, Reduce, Reuse, Repair, Refurbish, Remanufacture, Repurpose and Recover
$3.5trn - Value of the global electronics industry – all electronics contain rare earths $3.5bn - Value of the global rare earth component industry $15bn - Actual value of rare earth themselves per annum $3bn - Value of the rare earth mining industry 50x that of global reserves of economically recoverable Rare Earths 394,000 tons a year of mixed rare earth concentrates Source: The Mineral Hub 2025
Every year that passes words and phrases seep into the general consciousness, amplified by the media, and before long become part of general usage. In the 90s it was ‘multimedia’, ‘Britpop’ and ‘ozone layer’, for example. ‘Bird Flu’ and ‘Credit crunch’ were coined in the 2000s and never really left us. ‘Brexit’ joined the lexicon not long after that, along with ‘Remainers’, ‘Remoaners’ and ‘Trumpism’. ‘Covid’ was an uninvited guest and we all remember people suddenly very opinionated – even expert - on the apparent pros and cons of the WHO, a body few of us had given much thought to before 2020. Carbon literacy and net-zero shouldn’t be recent additions but are, but the big climber of 2025, straight in at number one is Rare Earth Minerals, also known as Rare Earth Elements. Fortunately, this area is niche enough that your Auntie Doris probably doesn’t have strong feelings about Neodymium. You needn’t delve too deeply into the news at present to realise that rare earth minerals are, along with bees, water and sunshine, fairly critical to the future of human life as we know it. What is alarming is the seeming abandon with which these are being employed, the finite nature of rare earths and more alarming still, what is and isn’t being done about it. This article investigates why.
in Ukraine, and that the motivations from the Trump administration are more likely politically driven, a cynical face-saving exercise possibly and an attempt at dominating the region. “A business case means you’re going to make a profit. A return on your investment, in a reasonable time. A better return than making an investment on a secure asset like gold bullion. There’s no business case for Ukraine; I don’t even want to talk about it, it’s so ridiculous,” he told Investor Coffee in a recent webinar. Ukraine is eliminated then. There are mineral deposits scattered all over the planet. Most have been identified as either economically recoverable or not, and these can be due to the sheer difficulties presented by the physical landscape, climate and geopolitics again. China dominates the rare earths market, but only part of that is due to the fact most of the reserves are found and mined in China. China also dominates the processing, manufacture and distribution of the world’s electronics market, and this is no accident. “$3.5trn is the value of the global electronics market. All electronics have rare earths in them. Of that 3.5 trillion, the actual rare earth metals processed are only worth $15 billion. It isn’t worth that much. And that, by the way, is one of the major reasons we don’t do it. And why China does.”
[At this point a disclaimer: a quarterly publication such as Broadband Journal can’t possibly hope to compete with incredibly fast-moving world events and 24-hour rolling news; any political observations will be obsolete before we even go to print. This article seeks to understand the unavoidable geopolitics of this topic from a distance and trusts your own judgement to fill in the blanks - Ed.] Where is it most dominant? “If we stay on the road we’re on right now, in less than 10 years, virtually everything that matters to us in life will depend on whether China will allow us to have it or not … They have come to dominate the critical-mineral industry supplies throughout the world.” Marco Rubio, Secretary of State, USA You could be forgiven for thinking rare earths are most present in Ukraine and Greenland if recent headlines are to be believed, but China absolutely dominates, followed by Vietnam, Brazil, Russia, India and Australia. Ukraine and Greenland don’t even feature in the top 20 of the World Population Review’s assessment of Rare Earth Reserves. Rare earths have played a significant part in the US peace/arms deal being inked currently with Ukraine as part of the ongoing peace process, though rare earth minerals expert Jack Lifton maintains there are none of any importance even
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Refuse, Rethink, Reduce, Reuse, Repair, Refurbish, Remanufacture, Repurpose and Recover
Meanwhile, what about everywhere else? India, Australia and the US were mining at scale, but without the government support China lavishly supplied to its own industry, their outputs were eclipsed during the 90s, at a point that digital revolution was starting to gain traction. “Mining is expensive and dirty, it’s bad for the environment; we don’t want that kind of industry in the west,” Amanda said. Around this time a leak in a processing plant in California made locals nervous and it was closed down, at which point all American mined rare earths (rated 7th in the league for highest level of rare earth reserves, not insignificant) were shipped to China, in the misguided belief doing business with the US was a benign effort by China to continue propping America up as the world’s dominant superpower. Intelligence officials now admit they were naïve. Van Dyke added, “The Chinese have realised that all you need to do in commodities is slightly overproduce to keep the price down. If you just produce one or 2% more consistently than the market needs, you keep a total lid on the prices.” The Chinese business model is unlike anything we operate with in the West. Investors expect a return quickly and won’t invest if that isn’t possible. The West operates on election cycles of 4-5 years, maybe they can look forward to 8-10 with a comfortable majority, but where no democracy operates, China has no such barriers to contend with. They can afford to take the long view. In China, Van Dyke explained, “they’ve mastered the commercialisation of the entire process. They have understood that they need rare earths to develop an electronic components and electronics industry. They told the mining companies, ‘we will lend you lots of money to build these factories and you don’t have to have a normal rate of return 10-15 percent. In fact, we’ll let you run at a loss for the first five years. If you just scrape by with a two or three percent like one or two percent margin, we’re ok with that. We’ll fund lots of you so that you’re slightly overproducing. That way prices never go up and we’re okay with doing that because that means we own global rare earth production, and we own the markets that come from it.”
Amanda Van Dyke is an investment banker based in London who heads up the Critical Minerals Hub which provides analysis and insights on the global market for critical minerals. She has a deep knowledge and understanding of this market and broke down the rare earths market over a coffee. What is happening with rare earths is only one part of an audacious, far reaching strategy that even now is not especially discussed in the West. Reports and interpretations vary, but not long after the 1949 Communist Revolution a manifesto was developed, laying out a complex 100-year road map that would establish China as the world’s economic superpower by 2049. It isn’t even clear if this manifesto has been written down, such is its hallowed secrecy. Only parts of it have been translated. Western complacence has largely ignored what was quietly taking place across the landscape as a rural nation developed into a manufacturing powerhouse, creating a dependence on cheap, well-made electronics that according to Michael Pillsbury, whose chilling and prescient 2015 warning on The Hundred Year Marathon: China’s Secret Strategy To Replace America as the Global Superpower, “constitutes the US misreading of China’s ‘hundred-year marathon’ as its greatest intelligence failure of the past 50 years.” Ouch. The mining of rare earths began some fifty years into this journey, with China realising early on that dominating the messy and complex processing part of the rare earth supply chain was essential to securing market dominance down the line. Van Dyke explained further. “China realised a long time ago that the money was in making the electric vehicles; computers and high tech is fine, but the value add is in the big-ticket items. To control the big industry, you need to control the components, so they own the entire supply chain. China owns many of the biggest mines in the world, over 50% of the market. The processing of rare earths is maintained at a deliberately very small margin, basically at cost. Why? So that nobody else is incentivised to develop their rare earth deposits or process the rare earths because there’s so little money in it.”
They don’t want anyone else to know their secret sauce. That said, it’s not that hard. It’s not nuclear fission. It’s chemistry. It’s material science and chemistry.
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back to the US begins to make some sense. Van Dyke raised her eyebrows. “I know it’s basically sacrilege in Europe to say Trump’s right about anything, but on this, Trump’s been right for a very long time.” This didn’t happen in a vacuum; Trump’s policy was the result of years of hard lobbying by Silicon Valley and Elon Musk in particular, all of whom saw the writing on the wall well before the rest of us and certainly before US Intelligence by the looks of it. However, the damage is done. Fifty years of strategy, massive investment and operating at a loss means China has the advantage and debate continues whether the US can be the hare to China’s tortoise. Time will tell. Circular economy It isn’t all about mining and processing, however. Victoria D’Arcy and James George are both UK-based economy experts concerned with the finite nature of the rare earths left on the planet, and what we are doing with the amount of existing rare earth minerals. Those will be already mined, processed and languishing in obsolete hardware in kitchen drawers, charity shops and landfill all over the planet in staggering quantities; it remains a persistent worry, as well as a gigantic, lucrative, missed opportunity. James George told Broadband, “A survey has just been completed on electronic waste just in the US, and they had calculated that in the legacy equipment in our homes - phones and laptops and electronics - in the US alone there was enough lithium ion in the batteries and components sitting in our cupboards,
One critic on Reddit was particularly scathing about the imbalance of power. “None of this is new. It’s decades-old information that yellow-bellied politicians have been ignoring since the 90s. Enriching Communist China would set us on this path. You’d have to live with your head in the sand to not realise what China would do with that newfound power and money.” “They don’t want anyone else to know their secret sauce. That said, it’s not that hard. It’s not nuclear fission. It’s chemistry. It’s material science and chemistry. China started with sweatshops, but it went into mining, then into energy. China builds more nuclear power plants every year than we’ve built in the West in the last 10.” Van Dyke was firm on this point. “I don’t blame China for what they’ve done. They have a long-term, intelligent business plan that was economically rational, and invested and worked hard. They built the factories, and they built the relationships. They learned how to be good miners, and they learned how to process materials. They spent the money over long periods of time without expecting immediate returns in order to build a solid, secure industry. And the rest of the world is having a serious problem competing with that.” Broadband Journal turned to Chris Miller for some perspective. Chris detailed the semiconductor supply chain and the West’s reliance on China and Taiwan in his excellent book on the subject, Chip War – The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology (Simon & Schuster, 2022). “Tech companies are beginning to focus on China’s dominance of rare earth processing as well as processing of other important minerals like gallium and germanium,” he said. ”However, China benefits from several factors. Energy prices are low. Environmental rules are lax. And because it dominates global production, the Chinese government can reduce the world price of these materials whenever it likes, making foreign production unprofitable. Without action from Western governments, it will be difficult to reduce China’s market dominance.”
All of the above means Mr Trump’s determination to bring manufacturing
May 2025 Volume 47 No.2
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public or governments demand an eco- phone. The phone would be made from high recyclable materials with a design for disassembly and reuse. And we might need a refundable disposal tax at the time of sale.” An incredible idea and a golden opportunity for both government and the tech industry to collaboratively do the right thing. Recycling is a two-pronged approach, argues James George. “The consumers have got to be part of this solution as well. Do you incentivize them? Do you plead with their moral compass? Do you let consumers offload this stuff in a kind of digital amnesty? What is the mechanism that allows you to get it all back? All of that requires effort, because we’re challenging the current status quo.” A status quo in the west that goes all the way back to colonial mining outposts in c19th Africa and Asia and the establishment of powerful supply chains that still exist – and thrive - today. Supply chains that are being invested in heavily by China (and until lately, the US) as foreign aid projects, building up soft power overseas. Breaking such supply chains, with millions of people and dollars invested and dependent on their success won’t be easy.
There are two issues preventing movement in this area – attitude and technology. Recovering copper and other rare earths that have already been produced from existing hardware is possible, but difficult, expensive and not happening at any kind of scale to incentivize consumers to do it. For some time now Apple have been offering a low-key incentive to return old handsets for a discount on new ones, promoting Liam and Daisy, disassembly robots that access the rare earths that powered your phone, but efforts like this have yet to really move the needle. The 2018 YouTube promo featuring Liam and Daisy at work generated some very creative feedback in the comments about eliminating waste, demonstrating again there is no shortage of creative solutions. Progress in large companies stalls because of process, rarely because of a lack of good ideas, for example: “Given US value chains, I doubt Apple makes any money from this. The ABB machines are expensive and the volumes are small. I see a couple million dollars in these specialised robots in the video. Worse, they take only the most valuable components, leaving the same toxic waste disposal problem. This is nowhere near the scope and scale of what’s needed. I would humbly suggest that the
attics garages to provide lithium to the EV industry for the next 70 years.”
Victoria maintains that the demand for rare earth minerals far outweighs the rate we can mine and process them, resulting in not only a shortfall but a point in the not-too-distant future where there will no more economically recoverable rare earths left. In 2021, Goldman Sachs announced that copper was the new oil, highlighting the urgency of the matter. D’Arcy agrees. “The demand for copper is likely going to double in the next 10 years,” she said. “That shortfall equates to about six million tons.” Compared to rarer earths than this, copper is abundant, she added. “So why don’t we just open up a new mine? There’s plenty of copper in Chile. But it’s in the Andes at around 5000ft, so there are logistical challenges, and it takes roughly about 16-20 years to open up a mine.” Added to that, accessible, recoverable gold is likely to run out in 18 years and there will be no more silver or platinum by 2050. Don’t put off that engagement for too long will you?
Recycling
“It’s the fundamental piece that has to change.” Victoria D’Arcy, Circular Economy Strategist, Podcast Host, All Things Circular
However, we are at a generational
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and because of the chemical structure of them they are very difficult to separate.”
inflection point in 2025 – recycling hasn’t seemed attractive for Generation X and arguably as consumers we are the worst offenders; Generation Z sees the opportunity, appeal and crucially, value in platforms like Preloved, Vinted, Facebook and Ebay which has rubbed off on Gen X. Ownership of CDs and DVDs is meaningless in 2025 – we are all used to consuming online now – a shift few imagined would be possible in the 90s. This shift will percolate through to hardware, another generation of execs will retire, a younger generation will be motivated to implement a business model that works. The fear of cannibalisation will ease off, and we will begin to see a greater adoption of second-hand iPhone and laptops etc as the circular economy begins to take hold. James George details the unexpected consequences. “When you chat to people who have cornered a market about remanufactured and re-conditioned goods, traditionally the initial response is always, no, I don’t want to cannibalise my primary market. That’s logical, but what actually happens is brands end up accessing part of the market that they never captured previously. Neither do they lose their primary customers, who then want to buy reconditioned handsets. They’ve created a secondary and tertiary markets to their primary market.” As we have seen many times now across Long Reads from cyber-security to data centres, prevailing attitudes from Gen Xers and Baby Boomers have often stymied change; our generation and those before us grew up before the Internet, before the Digital Revolution, and while we flatter ourselves we are the force of change that heralded this revolution, it won’t be us that will see it through the next evolution to a circular economy. That requires a younger generation that grasps the urgency and sees little value in the ownership of consumer products, that is perfectly happy with a second- hand iPhone or a reconditioned laptop if it means a sustainable future. However, incentivizing consumers is only part of the issue. D’Arcy pointed out that “Nobody is investing in recycling; less than 1% is extracted, it’s miniscule. The rest of these rare earths is just shredded, because they are in such small amounts,
oxygen available for another existential crisis; we are all suffering from crisis fatigue as it is. Social media and 24-hour rolling news cycles tend not to focus on a threat 18 years away either. Plus, scarcity doesn’t sell papers. Drought and famine do. Nobody wants to hear that things might run out, although this sort of thinking will help nobody in the longer term, and Victoria D’Arcy is right in pointing out, “Scarcity is just going to show up unannounced, it’s just going to happen. It will start off as delays, then it’ll affect costs, and then it will hit the margin.” The moment you flush your iPhone down the toilet, you’ll no doubt find scarcity borderline fascinating. D’Arcy went on, “We’re reaching a point where businesses will suddenly say, what are we going to do? And I can’t get them almost to listen to me yet, because the problem isn’t here yet. It’s like we’re sleepwalking into it.” Our consumerist society is like no other period in history; in the West we haven’t ever suffered shortages, apart from toilet paper in the first heady weeks of the pandemic which was largely a media construct anyway. We aren’t prepared for what this means nor how to cope when it happens. As it seems a long way off, we are indulging in the Ostrich Effect, a way of avoiding bad news by ignoring it, negating its importance, interpreting it
It is possible we are just not there yet with the means to make it happen. Like retrieving an egg from a baked cake, Chris Miller points out that “Recycling products with hundreds of thousands of components is often not cost effective. There are many firms trying to change this, but it requires new technology.” Fortunately, as we are seeing elsewhere in this piece, technology moves extremely quickly and with a bit of luck and a following wind, may not be an issue for long. Scarcity isn’t newsworthy “We’re reaching a point where businesses will suddenly say, what are we going to do? And I can’t get them almost to listen to me yet, because the problem isn’t here yet. It’s like we’re sleepwalking into it.”
Victoria D’Arcy, Circular Economy Consultant
All of this has become urgent at a point where we have rarely seen such explosive, geopolitical instability, with wars and/or tension on every continent, unparalleled migration, climate change, stagnating growth and rising populism everywhere. There is only so much
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