برامج التسلح في الخليج والجوار

هذا البحث محاولة لاستشراف واقع وآفاق برامج التسلح في الخليج العربي وجواره الإقليمي، المتأثر بهذه البرامج أو المؤثر فيها. ورغم طابعه التقني تبقى خلاصات هذا البحث ودلالاته سياسية في التحليل. وقد شهدت منطقة الخليج العربي وجوارها في السنوات العشرالماضية حركة تسليح نشطة، استقبلت خلالها دولُها الكثير من السلاح والعتاد.

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[( :J N )_“ l0 ‡ % )> "4 J N/ v %C. lC0 6C )g)#C. %.   <]^ ) )g)#. s“/  ¡[0#.Q [ ) })C01/ f; )* 3W  FAS C)01/ C); ( ) B # X4 "])  ACA .( N C) ) # E( < !4 {)^Q J N5_ v N C)( sC“/ J @  < ";#( Nv* &> )( CC>/ ECC( CC-8 ) : CC)# globalsecurity.org ( ) defenseworld.net ) ( missilethreat.com ) ( f-16.net .( 5C# {)C^/ X4 K'  ;#4 Npm h7 *a7 ) –)'9 The New York Times ) ( The Christian Science Monitor .( pCm 60 ¬ N )‘ !9( < pL0 K'  !#. N`# C#( %)]( N˜9M V, X4 NLJ s` 6 —J .6# 0> = < @0 B # % )> € > vC, C N ]( v*  8Q k#  X4 6> ) :œ N;[)7 india-defence.com ) ( defence.pk LCJ .( 6 C=     %C. C_0Q < B # R> -M %.  C8r Ng[C C;=Q :} C  pm N) )g)#. .5; 5 

28

4 }. }>  t q) g[( )9 X* 1_C X .%&# )J( < "C VC NC    )J pm < i E)9# E L0 N &!9#H C> ." SLJ C  Ca#( cC  C`  < —J q) EC* cC’ ¬ N   > .) N  8 Q c  SLJ CJ!;#4 <e – %!‘ 1&(  N[ .6UG LJ ;j Q Q B? Ea #©( 6  < C)(4 C[)4 E;Š @?. Y t q) Npm < J/ c’ – !  ) Y  N     g` • i   }> 8 —J 6&  Z .[;G& 6Q N  4* </ & X4   pL0 @;G& L N3 :/   }C` N <&/> L8U – %. €> —J .8 .SLJ E; "* <4 )_'  % .P( J( €> kU –C %C4] !C  ) Y X4 H ` ¬` & [;G& cC, !C9( U  6›* N    { ECa XC  ~ < 0U# ))0 N«+ L= J!;#4 C&n % h7 !9( %# !&  Z .8D ^7 C` X4 &j )# %,##.H % #> N3/ .f. . —J 6Q pm h7 F& "Cg# "CJ!l f!C.  C Z   SLJ R4 Sd^ Q V)> ’  N ) bW  VC;g`

29

C9( C [ – N"&=>" F&  &Q —J  •C ` @8C H N ) Q "1  €  "C #> X  N)?Ÿ [4 <& H  )`Q NbW  %&#G( )?[ .ž##.H @)'# %);4 ž8 NpL0 —J q) < x# {& VC)4 B]C9( C)(4 " './" ;0 N C#©( %C;j(  %;)) %# .3©#.H ,!l E  )J &n  J q) — &Q VC& <e L ™G v `  .bW. "z V Q X4 <;C# 'C./ "z 2 0 m7  ` FW8 —J Nk8/  h7 ",P( './  ),# @ žC#  @8C –C %&C]# N &C  "lC[,/ './ N"!,( './ X4 / @C %8 ?8LC 'C. . &  @G& C   Sz> *! _0/ @ B #  . ) V^P !-   N   LJ  & H pm Z EC.Q %C> Y7 @8& @> NB #  > )Y^ Y  N #©(   <® k / LJ V «#&   < < .]8Q %&~ 3[ ` }. }>  ,& H Nk8Q [, < NV)7 -     F[& "!4 L Nk 6  ` 6 J @[* NC> Cg` !C !4 ! Q V - H 4 "> J 6# LJ 6Q 3Q N!# bW  0 m7 ”3g`/> @J ¯ ”V  v )J ;* NpL0 / 6

30

6C# C&! ']9 S #4> k 6 h7 j <e N C " k8/ !>/ @;G) E #& V Q 3Q N  ”& &! }C> HC _0/ J 8r …( 6&  Ni ) ]> Ea q) V Q 1Z N}. ¡ 3C[( LJ 6Q ;0 N34  C&Ÿ 2 4Q – %  -8 N )( •g# 3Q ;9& ."!  •i )JC; C* NkC 6 L8U&  N 4 9> Cg)# N#C ( 1CZ Q N)i 1Z 6# "- N"?   %# C  )( k V#u ;)* "C % < Q N &  1Z " -> pm €&# X #* N &  N# ( 6# Ea < •## N >  %!/ }> {)#> %C# pCm •Z ¬ #  ))` 6# 6& K)` .H* v! 60 C N6# < }4 }> l));# ’ pm h7 *a7 6  i !# X4 l& L )# k C> 1CZ "C !C# «C#& LC NC k 6 N )g)#.  i C> C 'C.U0 &) 1Z '.Q < V#u  }> .= i w&9 N & ˆd -8 N@G [ k 6 3[o  & Nv!C BC #  . [ @0 Vg# N 49#( °9( %m k }> _ 3 H j*

31

)* v! Q Nk 6 <4 4# [ S #4> V)7 j "C C 3©#.W fg ,i 3> v! b¨ ˆ& .3j ? 6# Ea X4 ±' &  V 7  <e N18Q k >/ >( " &C  N  Z [)7 j& " SLJ 6›* 4> CJ # "!Q < & c , Q ]( ! < •]( NV)* #.H @ # o  & • 6 ˜C* l&l Sz> E*& y X4 B #     & .3W  </

32

W   א  א    א  א   

33

      

34

   ! "# $ %   6# qŠ ]Q B # > )- X4 )M  C> V# )- bW  %! 6Q j`W <e N2  )> C  #( c&# .]/ SLJ    [z <  V99²      g` !  './ !1#.H f. N</ v* ª  Q NžCM fH @,Q < ; K'  &]# N)I [)9 [C/ ,C8 &~ !, [0!7 k ! V Q ;0 N &  # SLJ N  [YG X4 )  < S #   o J lC    v] %W8 N o ) H L &C J! v] pL %,$ J – N &  Q )/ " N "C p#* C) l) <;Ca #©(   %„* }> 6# X4 {# N[)G> Nv*  N #  "C) XC4 Nc&C# ),# k#    ) v* ) l) 6›* pL . &  %&#C  h7 !P   ))   &[# Q </ < #$ ) 1( . ) 1 ( "+   # ( *  )   3 %63* 3 %") 3* ) SIPRI (  3  86* 1  9$*   2003 3* 3)    )*' ( * "+  + /  (! ) : ) 3)  =  )  + /  * /   2004 > ( 444 .

1 

35

C 6# qŠ ]Q     E  vC* {#$ 2Y N & 4 %9> 4* N )> )M 3  . ' ( % 2007 C    7 ³> N qª  64 . 5 ) .H! VC &!C  c)9 60 38 . 94 .H! ) <4 ;# 3Q , H  }C 2008  2009 ) 1( . NEC    LJ 6Q h7 1G 6Q <e Npm Z }> "# 1988  2009 < 6;4 N 2 . 11 h7 4 ) % NH!  < 2& 3 . 31 h7 4 . 58 ) % NH!  < &!  17 . 83 h7 39 . 25 H! ) ) 2( .

XC4 C# %&#  6# qŠ ]Q 2g. pL0    h7     )- 2C#` . 3 6;4 ]. 2007 KC)` NC SLJ }> h/ ( [)*  2+> 10 . 4 % . 3C  SLJ 2+> C  V 2& 3 . 8 % N  ] 2 . 5 % N  &!  9 . 2 %  % 5 . 9 % 3  . 2008 2&  %f, 3 . 2 % N  6;4 7 . 7 %  &!  8 . 2 % ) 3( . Stockholm International Peace Research Institute , Stockholm, 2010, at: http://milexdata.sipri.org/result.php4 ) 2 ( Ibid. ) 3 ( Military expenditure as a share of GDP: SIPRI Yearbook 2010, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute , Appendix 5A, table 5A.4;Income group: World Development Indicators 2010, at: http://www.sipri.org/research/armaments/milex/resultoutput/mile x_gdp/?searchterm=Military Expenditure-%GDP ) 1 ( Military expenditure, SIPRI database ,

36

NC  C  < &  ! 9` k#  X4 3 N—J 2 0 2008 C  }> )g)8 ! E>Q N 15  LJ X4 )(4 h/ )9 N C__ C ( 6;4 2` * EC> N# X4 "'#( %&H @)?.7 < @0 > N)(4 1650 H!  > N)(4 M ( 2& %f, .! E> N"*+. 1600 .!  2 * &!  Q .! H! E> N)(4 1500 ! H! ) 1( .

) 1 ( Military Statistics > personnel (per capita) (most recent) by country, World Development Indicators database , at: http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/mil_per_percap-military- personnel-per-capita

37

)    1      ! "# $  %# # :( & "%  & " 2003  2008

  ? 

2007 - 2008

2006

2005

2004

2003

3.0

3.6

4.6

4.7

4.0

4.8

( 

4.0

4.9

4.7

6.2

6.6

7.3

@

6.6

5.5

. .

0.9

1.1

1.5

  !   A

3.7

4.1

[6.4]

6.3

5.6

6.7

..

..

..

..

..

20.9

    * ( 

3.7

..

3.0

3.6

4.7

4.9

..

..

4.4

4.4

5.8

2.3

..

..

1.9

2.3

5.5

2.5

/    ?

4.3

4.0

3.9

4.0

4.0

3.8

( 

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.9

3.6

5.1

/ *

4.1

3.9

4.2

4.5

4.6

5.1

  *

4.7

6.0

5.2

2.5

. .

. .

 !!

8.5

9.2

5.2

3.3

1.4

1.1

 *

[3.5]

[3.5]

[3.6]

[3.7]

[3.8]

[4.3]

  + , 7*A    )

3.3

3.2

3.4

3.6

4.3

4.8

5.4

2.9

2.7

2.6

1.9

. .

7.0

7.2

7.6

7.6

7.8

8.6

5.9

6.1

4.8

4.8

5.1

6.0

3.2

3.8

3.6

4.3

5.8

6.5

  

3.9

4.6

4.5

4.4

4.4

6.6

10.4

11.0

11.8

12.1

12.2

4

2.5

2.2

2.5

2.9

4.0

 +*

8.2

9.2

8.3

8.0

8.4

8.7

 *

3.4

4.1

4.4

5.1

5.6

6.3

'

. .

5.9

5.9

5.6

7.4

7.9

 

4.2

4.4

3.9

4.6

5.1

6.6

Source s: Military expenditure as a share of GDP: SIPRI Yearbook 2010, Appendix 5A, table 5A.4;Income group: World Development Indicators 2010M at: http://www.sipri.org/research/ armaments/milex/resultoutput/milex_gdp/?searchterm=Military Expenditure - %GDP

38

2  ! "# $ %     %! )- X4 ]Q 6# qŠ C)> )M  SLC= C) C;) 2+> N &  %( './ < }> "# N%! 1999  2009 V#  N 7 % C;) "# 1999  2009 . %!#.  2& ;)> & 4 %?Y 247 NH! 6)  6;4 537 NH! 6)  ] 320 NH! 6C)  &!C  1959 "C'#( C)> %C H! 6) 6283 6C) H! ) 3( . "CG( %C)D pCm o) &  %)r )- X4  N%! ;) 2+> N( %W "# C  C > N[  2& 55 NH! 6)  6;4 120 NH! 6)  &!C  294 % H! 6) 927 H! 6) ) 4( . ) 1 ( TIV of arms imports to all, 1999-2009, SIPRI Arms Transfers Database, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute , Stockholm, 2010, at: http://armstrade.sipri.org/armstrade/html/ export_values.php

) 2 ( Ibid. ) 3 ( Ibid. ) 4 ( Ibid.

39

N%! ;) 2+> N )>i <  )- X4 "C#  N[  2& 340 NH! 6)   &! 1042 6C) H! N  % 55 H! 6) ) 1( .

) 1 ( Ibid.

40

)    2 & "%      '  :( 2004  2009

* 

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

  7

681

444

7

10

220

(! 1  B 

30

25

5

   C

195

15

29

17

47

31

55

 + 

81

37

36

8

)

87

74

6

2

1

1

4

D #

396

10

18

18

110

106

134

E. $*

114

5

15

26

20

47

* *

20

15

5

  &*

695

695

* 

2298

626

115

64

185

148

1161

Source : TIV of arms exports to Saudi Arabia, 2004-2009, weapon category, SIPRI Arms Transfers Database, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, 2011,at: http://armstrade.sipri.org/armstrade/html/export_values.php

41

)   3        (   2004  2009



2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

  

5689

422

668

527

1436

1719

918

   

88

88

 

104

30

9

3

40

9

12



24

1

7

5

5

5



28

10

0

9

4

5



1721

54

64

382

470

440

311



62

21

21

20

 

44

44



7760

604

748

938

2026

2198

1246

Source : TIV of arms exports to UAE, 2004-2009, weapon category, SIPRI Arms Transfers Database, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, 2011,at http://armstrade.sipri.org/armstrade/html/export_values.php

42

        

3 

   8) ; '8  &4 -.Ž (X P(0$ ! 3 &L=4 2010 ! (8 (U $ &::" "5  V  ' ; JK W$ @^ (: (]  2076 . ::" DE8F p$k Q$^  629  ;…8 8$:f (:c #Um 240 8(c . ' 5  :K ) :8F @8 " €8 (:t &UJ Typhoon ( ) Tornado ADV ) ( Tornado IDS ) ( Mirage 2000 ) ( F-18 (  ) F-16 ( )1( . 3 &L=4 ) ;& " (, O5 2010  ' ; @8 " ! 8 '  & "5  V 600362 G5 ‘ F8c 8'-  & ! TQ' . 24700 8G5 ‘ ; ' & 35 G5 {K ‘ 'z & ; 169000 G5 ‘ . '8 5 78) ;8 7)8 ! 5 & ’F €hK )2( .

) 1 ( Anthony H. Cordesman And Aram Nerguizian, THE GULF MILITAR BALANCE IN 2010, Center for strategic and international studies , Washington 2010. ) 2 ( Ibid.

43

   &* +,#  $ % 

4 

! "#

  +  , &C  %!C C)*+ )# SzH @-  N )g)M }> "#;( "# 1999  2009 %C&H 2> . }) <&!( "- X4 >Q "'#( !C# 'C.® N  ]/ 6# qŠ  )> )M  .  N[`W. %!#.   SLJ 6Q Z N"C# SLJ . ! <&G4 ` < ›* N! sWO < f, V j4/ fl 6 .) ]&>  * "'#( %&H J Nqª ! %m'#.  }C> "# 1999  2009 N X4 10 . 6 % &  %!9 7 <  N )01/ 35 . 4 %  N )  %!9 < 7 . 3 % N C) ]&R %!C9  4 . 8 % ) 1( . -  }> "# 1999  2009 'C.Q <&C'  %!#C. N 6C;4 C] C)g> :J N! 2. < & 4 % 

) 1 ( TIV of arms imports to all, 1999-2009, SIPRI Arms Transfers Database, op. cit.

44

%( './ 2^  N"'#( %&H ) ]&> )0 V#  ) ]&R 15 . 45 % ))g  2 . 72 % . &C  <&'  %! 01Q ` ´!Q xn 3 2006  SLJ 2 0 K)` N 4 . 74 %  2 0 N 3 - 2004 C= ` X4Q 2'* ) ]&> Q . 3C &C  <&'  %! 2006 EC> N 95 . 23 % C]( 3C/> ` X4Q J N%! SLJ 7 < &Q ) 1( . 1999  2009 ) (Q  * }9 )#.Q :J N! 5t < N 'C./ 2^ ."'#( %&H ) ]&>  &. )]&7 V#  )  %( 39 . 4 % SLC= C) C;) < 4 )01/ %! %m'#. }` N%! XC 34 . 07 % ))9 N[ 10 . 98 % ) ]&R N 4 . 88 % XC4Q 2g.  . 3C C)#& &  %! 01/ ' 2007 h7 2- K)` N 100 % SLCJ 2 0 .%! SLJ < -    } 2008  2009 C * 2` N[#[, < . = ` X4Q 34 %! SLJ 1999 E> N 81 . 48 % . N * ` X4Q V  3 [^ ;0 3/> N"# SLJ ]( ) 2( .

%  $ '.Q 2& %!#. N & 4 % "# }C>

) 1 ( Ibid. ) 2 ( Ibid.

45

  - ' .  N &  %( './ < ) ; %! )- X4 "# }> 1999  2009 N! CG4 < %! SLJ %f, N 0 :J  }9  *   ) (Q  )]&7  6#C 0>  C &.  %  %( './ 2^ ."'#( %&H ) ]&> V#  )01/ 57 . 83 % N%!C SLC= ) ;) < ) ]&R 2^ 21 . 08 % )  14 . 28 % 3  . 2007 N %! 01Q ` X4Q 2g. N &C  6C;4 2+> K)` 100 % 3C  .%!C SLJ 7 < 2008  SLJ %f, 93 . 93 % 3 2µ . 2009 h7 2 . 15 % .

3  2006 . C]( 3/> 01Q ` X4Q —J 60 6C;4 %! C` X4Q ) ]&> 2g. NJ> 3 &  2000 E> N 83 . 33 % VC  3 [^ ;0 . ]( 3/> 5]&> ` X4Q N C*  * ` X4Q Q 3 s` 2009 EC> N 97 . 84 % %!C C7 "C# N &  ] %! k#  X4 1999  2009 %! SLJ %f, N )g> :J N! q‡ <   *  )]&7  %( './ 2^  ."'#( %&H ) ]&> V#  )01/ &  68 . 62 % )  N%! SLJ < 27 . 45 % ))g  N 1 . 96 % XC4Q "C'#( %&H 2` .

) 1 ( Ibid.

46

3 &  ] %! ` 2009 > N E . . ]( 3/> ` X4Q &Q LJ 60 2Cn N@>(  3C4/ %! SLJ  * ` X4Q 2000 h7 2003 E> N 100 % . 3 Q 1999   ` X4Q [^ * ]( 3/> ) 1( . . C./ 1999  2009 :J N !  0  }9  C *  C) (Q  C)]&7  6# 0>  )&*Q •,   &.  )0  %C&H ) ]&> "'#( ) 2( . 98 . 24 %  

) 1 ( Ibid. ) 2 ( Ibid.

47

)    4     '    , :(   & "% 2004  2009

* 

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

) !$

54

7

47

 )

40

3

8

9

6

13

 #

73

36

36

* 

810

16

10

11

4

1

768

 

2

1

1

  A

21

10

5

6

 *)

3

3

    !

10

5

5

* *

30

25

5

 )

12

2

10

  

474

453

21

/    ?

771

83

29

37

163

143

316

* 

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626

115

64

185

148

1161

Source : TIV of arms exports to Saudi Arabia, 2004-2009, recipient/supplier, SIPRI Arms Transfers Database, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, 2011,at: http://armstrade.sipri.org/armstrade/html/export_values.php

48

V# C  )01/ &  %( './ 2^  49 . 31 % )C  2^ }` N%! SLJ < 29 . 51 % N ) ]&R 11 . 83 % . C` XC4Q "C'#( %&H 2` C 3C &!  &  %! 2005 EC> N 96 . 62 % .%! SLJ 7 < 3C/> ` X4Q 2` 34/ ]( 1999  2004  2009 .# X4 N [#)` < &C  %!C CC ` X4Q  * 2g. 3 &!  2002 J > N 68 . 82 % SLCJ C7 < 3C/> C * ` X4Q &Q 3 LJ @g. .%! . ]( 3/> ;0 NC ` X4Q 2` * ) ]&> Q 3 %! SLJ N ]( 2009 E> N 72 . 36 % ) 1( . $ ! . C( 'C./ < % ! %! )- X4 % N &  "# }> 1999  2009  *   *  ) (Q  )]&7  ) ) J   )   ).  "*+.  C)&*Q •C,  &C   

) ]&>  H ) 0Q "'#( %& ) 2( .

 )0 

) 1 ( Ibid. ) 2 ( Ibid.

49

)    5  :( "    '    , & "%  2004  2009

* 

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

* 

8

2

5

1

 $ 

2

1

1

* 

3152

23

58

377

938

913

843

 

66

5

3

3

46

4

5

  A

30

30

  

24

12

12

 

40

32

8

 *

124

124

/ *

2

1

1

    !

11

4

4

4

*

1

1

0

 )

23

5

5

5

7

  

2

2

/    ?

4276

434

673

487

1011

1274

396

* 

7760

604

748

938

2026

2198

1246

Source : TIV of arms exports to UAE, 2004-2009, recipient/supplier, SIPRI Arms Transfers Database, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, 2011,at: http://armstrade.sipri.org/armstrade/html/export_values.php

50

-    %  "# $

5 

! !#. ) ),M &  %) ( 0 h7 FMS C># ( ( ;) 2+> N6Z#  ) )i )01/ &  % ]/ 6# qŠ )> )M  3 N 2009 . N 210 N%) [ 3 . 83 C) % N2C& H!  3 . 43 C) % H!  N%  2 . 2 . &!  H! ) KCO y ³ ( LJ @_e C+  N3 pm )01/ &  %) ( ;) 7 39 H! ) ) 1( . %CM 6Q XC4 01/ './ %)  6  ¶& * v  6Q c’ )01/ )4* i @C,Q # 0G( < &!9#H );# œ ( N})(   </ X4 ±' )4;#,H . )i  'C./ E)> 01/ 6  Ee . ))?. E  EY )>4 ! / )01/ 1Z "!( p 6Q < &. * X4 f> g)M 6# qŠ ! X4 x ] H .ˆ+ 

) 1 ( Proposed U.S. Arms Export Agreements From January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2009, Arm Control Association , March 2010, at: http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/2009ArmsExports

51

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