MARKETS & TRENDS
RENTAL MARKETS
Health Scare LOST JOBS COULD HAVE LASTING CONSEQUENCES
by Ingo Winzer
Percent of Jobs in Healthcare
Healthcare Jobs Lost
or several months, the national loss of jobs since last year has been six per -
F
National Average
16% 3%
cent, about 10 million people. Last May, it was 12 percent, so progress has been good, but now we are stuck at six. This appears to be the new normal until the pandemic is over, which probably won’t be until the end of 2021. And this extended period of lost jobs will have longer-lasting consequences. One of them is that the financial condition of hospitals and doctors’ offices will remain bleak for years. They have lost a lot of mon - ey and can’t just get it back by raising prices, which already are sky-high. What they will do instead is cut costs by cutting staff. That is already underway, the new normal for lost healthcare jobs this year is three percent. Healthcare has been a driver for many local economies over the past decade, but unless people flock back for medical procedures when the pandemic is over (which I think will not happen) a large healthcare sector will be a drag on local economic recovery. And on local real estate. Healthcare workers are homeowners and renters and without jobs they will move. Here are a dozen markets with a very large healthcare sector. If you are a long-term real estate investor you might reconsider your strategic view of this sector. If you are a short- term investor you might want to think about getting out for a few years. Betting against healthcare has been like betting against Tom Brady — a losing proposition, but at some point, the ride is over. •
31% -6%
Philadelphia, PA (pictured)
29% -3%
New Haven, CT
25% -6%
Rochester, NY
23% -7%
Boston, MA
22% -3%
Pittsburgh, PA
22% -7%
Providence, RI
22% -7%
New York, NY
21% -6%
Winston-Selem, NC
20% -5%
Baltimore, MD
20% -7%
Milwaukee, WI
19% -9%
Cleveland, OH
19% -1%
St. Louis, MO
LOCAL MARKET MONITOR, CARY NC
Ingo Winzer is president of Local Market Monitor, which analyzes conditions in 300 U.S. markets, using such economic data as home values and growth in employment and population. Winzer, who has analyzed real estate markets for more than 20 years, was a founder and executive vice president of First Research, an industry research company that was acquired by Dun & Bradstreet in March 2007. He is a graduate of MIT and holds an MBA in finance from Boston University. Winzer resides in Cambridge, Mass. www.localmarketmonitor.com
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72 | think realty magazine :: april 2021
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