Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product Annualized Rate (Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis) 2021 2022 2023 2024
2025 Q1
2025 Q2
GDP
6.2
2.5
2.9
2.8
-0.6 0.42 3.79
3.8
Personal Consumption
5.84 1.58
2.04 1.09
1.74 0.15 0.59 0.45
2.00 0.54 0.65
1.68
Investment
-2.66 -0.01
Government Spending
-0.02 -1.25
-0.22 -0.39
-0.17 -4.68
Net Exports 4.83 According to research by the Bank of America Institute - Consumer Checkpoint (based on Bank of America customer data), consumer spending remained strong in September 2025. Total credit and debit card spending per household increased 2.0% year-over-year from September 2024. The September increase follows a year-over- year gain of 1.7% in August. However, although overall consumer spending increased, there was a significant difference in consumer spending by income level. Growth in consumer spending was significantly less for lower- income households relative to middle and higher-income households. In September, year-over-year wage growth was 4% for higher-income households while for lower-income households rose only 1.4%. Stronger wage growth, combined with the increased wealth effects from a rising stock market, contributed to a K-shaped economy and greater consumer spending growth for middle and higher-income households relative to lower income households. Stock Market -0.39 The stock market reflects expectations for future economic performance and corporate profitability. The U.S. stock market shrugged off tariff uncertainty and rose to record highs in 2025. However, in a major shift for stock market performance, the U.S. stock market lagged behind most major foreign stock markets. The table below compares major stock index returns for selected countries for 2023, 2024, and year-to-date through November 1, 2025. The selected indexes are broad measures of stock market performance in their respective countries. The U.S. S&P 500 is a leading benchmark index for U.S. large company (large-cap) stocks, with a long-run historical annual average return of approximately 10%. The U.S. stock market soared in 2023 and 2024, with returns more than twice the historical average. In 2024, the U.S. stock market was the leader of the pack, with the S&P 500 returning 23.31%, slightly lower than the 2023 return of 24.23%. Year-to-date through November 1 the U.S. S&P 500 returned 16.30%, significantly higher than the historical average, but lower than several foreign stock market returns. Despite the U.S. imposed tariffs in 2025, the stock market performance of Mexico, Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany, Japan, and China exceeded the performance of the S&P 500 through November 1. Artificial intelligence has been a key driver of stock market performance. The Morningstar Global Artificial Intelligence Select Index includes stocks of 48 major companies with exposure to generative AI, AI data & infrastructure, AI software, and AI services. The index rose 75.27% and 34.78% in 2023 and 2024, respectively, with another 38.58% increase year-to-date through November 1. Five stocks with significant AI exposure comprise over 25% of S&P 500 market capitalization (total stock value): 1) Apple, 2) Nvidia, 3) Microsoft, 4) Alphabet, and 5) Amazon.
Central Wisconsin Report - Fall 2025
9
Made with FlippingBook Learn more on our blog