FROM THE INDUSTRY
n AI and data centres are ravenous for electricity, steel and copper
The Great Convergence For the first time in history, every major industry is converging around the same materials: n Consumer electronics depend on semiconductors, copper and cobalt n Electric vehicles consume six times more minerals than petrol cars n Defence systems require antimony, tungsten, titanium and rare earths n 5G and telecoms rely on gallium and indium n Renewable energy needs massive quantities of copper, nickel and graphite “Moore’s Law didn’t die—it grew up and discovered geology.”
China’s Empire of Dirt
While the West dreams in code, China builds in concrete. China controls: n 70% of rare earth mining and 90% of refining n 60% of lithium refining n 70% of cobalt processing n 80%+ of graphite n Nearly all gallium and germanium production This dominance is deliberate—a 30-year strategy treating mining and refining as instruments of national power while the West dismantled heavy industry. In 2024, Beijing restricted exports of gallium, germanium and antimony. In 2025, it added seven rare earths. The impact was immediate: delays in Western defence and manufacturing, price spikes and quiet panic in Washington and Brussels.
The IEA (Institute for Economic Affairs) projects mineral demand for clean energy alone to quadruple by 2040. Add AI and defence, and we’re looking at two to ten times current demand for copper, lithium and nickel. We are electrifying, digitising and militarising simultaneously—three revolutions drawing from the same geological reservoir. A bottleneck is inevitable.
The Arithmetic of Reality
This is not ideology. It’s arithmetic: n AI data centres alone could double global electricity use by 2030 n Each hyperscale facility requires tens of thousands of tonnes of copper and aluminium n EV production could consume half of all global lithium supply by 2030 n Wind turbines and transmission will require 400% more copper and aluminium by mid-century Yet policy conversations remain stuck in software. Almost no one is talking about where the materials will come from.
We are in a resource war fought with export licences instead of tanks.
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DECEMBER 2025 Volume 47 No.4
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