■ Management strategies based on systematic assessments of relative risks to key resources and values. These strategies are: – Codified in plans (e.g., forest enough to support action and flexible enough to be adjusted when climate risk profiles change. – Supported by knowledge systems that diversify and integrate traditional, experiential, and scientific knowledge about climate impact into education, public information, financial, health, and professional development. Climate Changes and Impacts management plans and IRMPs) that are effective on Forests and Forestry Climatic changes and their impacts on forests, forestry, and communities have increased rapidly since IFMAT III. Global, annually averaged, surface air temperature has increased by about 1.8°F (1.0°C) since 1901. Annual average temperature over the contiguous United States has also increased by 1.8°F (1.0°C) based on a linear regression for the period 1901–2016. This period is now the warmest in the history of modern civilization. Sixteen of the warmest years on record occurred in the last 17 years (Wuebbles et al. 2017). Wildfire extent and intensity is increasing throughout the US. The area burned is expected to double by the mid-century. Mortality is increasing in older forests, especially those already experiencing soil moisture stress. In the West drought exacerbates the interactions of stressors leading to higher tree mortality, slower regeneration, and shifting
Adjusting forest plans and practices to deal with climate impacts poses additional costs, logistical constraints, and recovery challenges for tribal forests and forestry. In the present and short-term, these measures may represent barriers to achieving state-of- the-art forestry on Indian lands. However, within the larger context of the disproportionate social, economic, and cultural hardships climate impacts will have on tribes these investments in adaptation are essential. This is especially true in light of the already limited resources, mobility, and access to information that tribes face. Maintaining forest health and regeneration success may be one of the more powerful tribal assets as inequities are amplified as the rate of climatic change accelerates. Coping with social, economic, and cultural vulnerabilities, and the growing awareness by tribal members regarding the associated values at risk, emphasizes the importance of a dynamic, open, and engaged planning process. The range of different approaches to climate planning varied widely in IFMAT’s sample of tribes. Some could serve as laboratories and demonstration areas for exemplary adaptation through active forest management. Despite relatively scant finances, resources, and technical planning, climate information sharing between natural resource staffs and other tribal offices as well as tribal member engagement, has been very efficient and creative. In other cases, limited capacity and access to information, tools, and expertise have hindered efforts.
combinations of plant species that may result in changed and possibly novel forest ecosystems. Species habitats are shifting, generally moving up in elevation and northward in latitude. Tree growth and regeneration will decrease for some species, especially near limits of their range. Insect infestations are expected to affect greater areas than wildfire. Invasive species are becoming more widespread, especially after disturbance in dry forest types. Flooding, erosion, and sediment movement is increasing from fire disturbance and downpours in steep areas. Eastern forests are receiving more precipitation and serve as carbon sinks while forest ecosystems in eight western states have transitioned to become net carbon sources because of wildfire combustion, mortality from fires, pests, and pathogens and the decay associated with these disturbances. Tribal Impacts and Risks Tribal forest programs increasingly deal with the cumulation and interaction of climate-driven biophysical, social, economic, and cultural impacts. A decade ago, IFMAT III noted that climate change had already started to influence costs (through fire management), practices (reforestation and forest health), operations (winter logging), and forest values (wildlife populations and culturally important plants), and had begun to stimulate proposals for changes in mandates for federal, state, local, and private sector post-disturbance planning and more comprehensive assessments of losses and follow- on adaptation efforts.
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