American Consequences - December 2017


Scott Garliss

The next leg of the growth story/ reflation trade will be an infrastructure bill. Administration officials have said they would like to get started on the process as soon as they return from their holiday recess. The hope is they can complete a bill very early next year. Both sides of the aisle have said stimulus via an infrastructure bill is something they can get behind. Considering that 2018 is an election year, members of Congress would December 18 and 19 The Senate and House are expected to vote on the final version of the GOP tax reform bill. Passage here is key to getting a bill on the president’s desk. The GOP can only afford two “no” votes in the Senate. December 22 The self-imposed deadline the GOP has set for having a final tax bill on the president’s desk. December 26 – January 3 The state of Alabama has said December 26 is the earliest date it could certify the recent special Senate run-off between Doug Jones and Roy Moore. They expect it to be done by January 3 at the latest. December 30 – January 4 China government and Caixin PMI data are released. These data are an important metric in terms of global economic health. China produces a lot of the goods the rest of the world consumes, so economic expansion is indicative of increased external demand.

January 2 – January 4 Markit PMI data for the U.S. and the Eurozone. Another key global economic growth metric. January 3 The release of the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting minutes. The market will be paying close attention to this data for clues on growth and inflation. January 5 The release of U.S. jobs and unemployment data. These figures are indicators of trends for future growth and inflation. January 11 Eurozone industrial production data. These data point to the health of the consumer as it reflects consumer demand. FCC commissioners voted to end their power to regulate broadband providers. There wasn’t an immediate reaction in stocks as a lot of this is baked in (look at the recent move in Verizon). But the setup will be long cable and short the biggest users. like nothing more than to hit the campaign trail having passed legislation that is shovel- ready and generates jobs.

John Gillin Greg Diamond


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