The fact that liability for accidents switches away from the driver to the company operating the autonomous vehicle solution will significantly change auto insurance. This presents a threat to the traditional auto insurance industry, as existing risk and business models require rethinking. In the short term, insurers will need to combine additional data, hosting and integration to support a new range of behavior- and usage-based products for semiautonomous, connected vehicles, amid a growing focus on safety and prevention services. Autonomous vehicles should lead to a big reduction in accidents, but when they are involved in an accident, repair costs might be higher. Insurers will also need to access connected vehicle data to identify who’s liable for semiautonomous operations. However, in the long term, insurers must create new actuarial models to account for changes in driver risk as a subset of risk factors are shifted from the driver to the performance of the vehicle. Auto insurers are at the early stages of creating consortia, such as Swiss Re ADAS Risk Score and Allstate (Arity), to better understand the use of data sources that can potentially be used for value-added services to promote road safety. 2,3
Mass: High
Fully autonomous driving will deliver a high impact to society and business. For society, autonomous vehicles should lead to safer road networks. In addition, autonomous vehicles could move goods at much greater speeds because of the ability to work 24 hours a day, lowering operational costs for the trucking industry and logistics companies. Likewise, the removal of the human driver from commercial vehicles could reduce operational costs further. In addition, high-quality services could be delivered at low prices, and the use of robotaxis in urban environments could signal the end of personal car ownership in metropolitan areas. Automotive manufacturers will likely significantly reduce the volume of vehicles they sell, and product leaders should expect a corresponding, dramatic shift toward shared mobility models and platforms that orchestrate mobility as a service. Each of these areas requires new insurance product creation to solve for the insurance requirements in these subsectors, rather than applying conventional insurance products to autonomous vehicles use cases. In turn, software and service providers will, therefore, need to adapt their own offerings accordingly to handle different product structures and workflows. The rise of autonomy will change the landscape of urban areas. For example, the need for parking would be reduced as autonomous cabs would move on to the next location to pick up a new passenger rather than park. However, the benefits of robotaxis are disputed, and opponents envision higher levels of urban congestion as people abandon public transportation, similar to the impact that ride-hailing with human drivers has already had. Although autonomous driving will be transformational, these impacts will be slow to evolve.
Gartner, Inc. | G00786204
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