the year that wasn’t The Vancouver Region experienced declines in both home sales and listings last year as high interest rates weighed on housing market activity. With above-average inventory to start the year, a change in narrative could be on the horizon.
because new listings don’t fluctuate as much as sales do, last year’s total was not as far off of its respective long-run average as sales were, which was a crucial factor in allowing inventory to grow. As we begin 2024 the most important factor impacting our housing market will undoubtedly be the timing and speed of Bank of Canada interest rate cuts. Once monetary loosening begins, we can reasonably expect some of the sidelined demand to return to the market, boosting sales counts. But in addition, an above- average inventory level to start the year could also prove to be a catalyst for sales counts down the road, as buyers will have relatively more options available to them.
With the new year upon us and 2023 now firmly in the rearview mirror, we can now take the opportunity to review the past 12 months and consider things from an annual perspective. As discussed in many recent editions of the rennie review, 2023 was dominated by the primary theme of high interest rates, in response to high inflation, and the market’s reaction to those rates manifesting in supply- demand dynamics that changed a lot from past years. And as we enter 2024, the Vancouver Region’s housing market is in a different position than it was one year ago. For starters, the number of homes available for sale is much higher than one year ago. There were 12,488 total MLS listings available at the end of December, which was 15% higher than in December 2022, and 8% above the past- decade December average. Even though
inventory has declined over the past three months (as it typically does at the end of each year), it has fallen by less than the typical seasonal pattern, resulting in the total number of listings expanding relative to the long-run average. One determinant of the overall inventory level is, of course, sales, which were understandably impacted by last year’s high interest rates that forced many buyers to the sidelines. To wit, last year’s total MLS sales count was 40,036, which was 8% less than in 2022, was 22% below the past 10-year average, and was the lowest annual total since 2018. Another determinant of the inventory level is the number of new listings coming to market, which totalled 76,824 last year; that’s also down, by 9% from last year, 10% less than the past-decade average and actually the lowest annual total since 2005. But
Copyright © 2024 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of January 10, 2024. All data from Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley & Rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 3
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