from 1993 to 2007, sees Trump’s tariffs as aimed to repatriate manufacturing and jobs to America. “President Trump made this explicitly clear…if you want to sell manufactured goods in the United States, you need to move your factories here,” says Mar. “But Canadian oil and natural gas are key inputs that help U.S. manufacturing. We ship the products or partially refined products that support the manufacturing of finished products in the United States. Tariffs will raise those costs for U.S. manufacturers and ultimately American consumers.” A DIVISIVE RERUN OF THE NATIONAL ENERGY PROGRAM? Mar’s former cabinet colleague Ted Morton agrees Canada needs to exercise patience and caution in any response to U.S. tariffs. Morton, who served as an Alberta cabinet minister from 2006 to 2012, strongly disagrees with the idea of placing countervailing tariffs on energy exports to the United States. Morton casts it as a divisive rerun of then Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau’s controversial National Energy Program in the early 1980s. Energy export tariffs “would be an attempt to revive Liberal Party support from disillusioned voters in Ontario and Quebec,” he says. “The biggest loser in Trump’s new tariff war will be Ontario due to the integration of the auto sector between the U.S. and Canada. It’s simple political arithmetic. Ottawa could collect $4 or $5 billion by taxing energy exports in western Canada and send that money to prop up struggling industries in Ontario and Quebec,” Morton says. “Ontario and Quebec combined have a total of 199 MPs, more than enough to form a majority government. It’s the ‘screw the West and take the rest’strategy. It’s how the Liberals won the 1980 federal election, and they could try it again.”
A lawyer by training, Gary Mar is also a keen student of history. And he recommends Canadians look at what happened when past U.S. administrations imposed tariffs on imports before jumping to add costs to Canadian energy. “President Richard Nixon imposed a 10 percent tariff in 1971 and withdrew it after a few months because it caused so much pain for American consumers,” says Mar, CEO of the Canada West Foundation, who served as Alberta’s trade representative in Washington from 2007 to 2011. “Canadians and their governments need to be patient. Any tariffs on energy will be passed on to consumers in the United States. We shouldn’t let the president off the hook for raising the price to American drivers by putting more duties on energy we export,” he says. “We want Americans to stand up for our supply, not displace the anger with President Trump for raising prices with anger towards Canadians.”
A MAJOR U.S. SUPPLIER The U.S. imports more than four million barrels of oil per day from Canada, or about one out of every five barrels the country consumes. Most Canadian imports are destined for refineries in the U.S. Midwest including Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio. About 99 percent of natural gas imports into the United States also come from Canada. Natural gas imports flow primarily to Idaho, North Dakota, Minnesota, and Montana, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. TRUMP TARIFFS Nixon put tariffs in place in an attempt to weaken the U.S. dollar against foreign currencies and strengthen U.S. exports. Mar, who served as a cabinet minister in the Klein and Stelmach governments
We want Americans to stand up for our supply
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