Dr. Robert Eyler is professor of economics at Sonoma State University and president of Economic Forensics and Analytics in Sonoma County. point, especially if the Middle East conflagration escalates and a genuine 21st-century shock occurs. If gas prices change as summer moves on and stay at higher levels, that hurts our more vulnerable socioeconomic groups and businesses first . g predictable, change consumer behavior? Recent history suggests that we are not alone, but we may be at an inflection Sonoma County unemployment (an indicator of where we are now versus forecasting macroeconomic change, correlated with both the other North Bay counties and California statewide). Notice that there are no obvious connections: does a combination of slower spending, slower tourism flows and general uncertainty tip a creaky economy toward recession? Furthermore, do rising gas prices, if steady and
Comparison of Sonoma County Unemployment Rate (%) to WTI Crude and West Region Average Gasoline Prices
of California’s size, demand versus regional refining, and politics. Notice the national correlation among these regions; regardless of California policy and taxes, movements are similar. For the North Bay, our final graphic shows the long history as related to
tax, where lower-income and smaller businesses feel a larger burden unless they can reduce their dependence on gasoline. The graph here shows the difference in pump prices since 2020 when the United States is divided into four regions. This structural difference in the “West” region is a function
August 2025
NorthBaybiz 19
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