Why Swiss Firms Must Invest in Geopolitical Radar and Sonar Cristián Rodríguez-Chiffelle, BCG, Geneva Prof. Simon Evenett, IMD, Lausanne
Geopolitical sonar, by contrast, is about pinpointing the underlying drivers of such developments, including long-term political shifts, economic policy pivots, and evolving security frameworks. Together, these tools allow businesses not just to react to geopolitical shocks, but to anticipate and prepare for them. Despite growing awareness, many firms still rely on backward-looking radar systems that are reactive and compliance-driven. This narrow focus risks overlooking slow-building but ultimately significant shifts - such as creeping export restrictions, political shifts abroad, incremental and compounding tax changes, or evolving subsidy frameworks.
Swiss firms that engage in cross-border trade and investment face yet more disruption in the external business environment. The announcement of a 39% reciprocal tariff on Swiss goods exports to the United States – potentially being negotiated down to 15% at the time this article went to print – served as a wake-up call. However, the challenge extends far beyond US protectionism. For more than a decade, geopolitical rivalry between countries has reshaped the international business landscape, be that in the context of trade tensions, a pandemic, supply chain crises or navigating effects of third- party military conflict. Commercial rules are being rewritten in response to national security concerns and state subsidies are proliferating, as kinetic conflict and supply chain disruptions have become more frequent. In this environment, firms must develop stronger geopolitical radar and sonar systems, to ensure resilience and strategic foresight. Defining geopolitical radar and sonar Geopolitical radar refers to a firm's ability to track material domestic or international developments - such as regulatory changes, sanctions, political tensions, or the advent of war - that could disrupt business operations.
Business case for investing in internal geopolitical capabilities
Investing in robust radar and sonar systems offers tangible commercial benefits. First, it improves risk mitigation by revealing hidden chokepoints and dependencies in global supply chains. Better geopolitical intelligence could have helped firms diversify away from risk-exposed markets. For example, from Russia before the Ukraine invasion or from China before escalating US–China trade tensions.
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