The spread between 63-70% is due to uncertainties in the na- tional model. Local conditions, such as the placement of new buildings, can affect the most appropriate level of district heat- ing in each area. Transition to 4 th generation district heating Though it is relevant to expand the DH system in Denmark, it is also essential that existing DH systems transition from the cur- rent temperature levels of around 80°C in the supply and 40°C in the return, corresponding to 3 rd generation DH temperature levels, to 55-60°C in the supply and 25-30°C in the return, cor- responding to the 4 th generation DH temperature levels. Such a transition must take place in conjunction with an ongoing energy renovation of the building stock. The analyzes show that reduced temperature levels in the DH system provide increased synergies for the end-user and throughout the supply chain for DH. The transition to lower temperatures reduces the grid loss in the DH pipes, making a more efficient supply. However, the crucial advantage is that it ensures a much more efficient utilization of current and future DH sources. These are mainly waste heat, geothermal, heat pumps, and solar thermal. Utilizing geothermal and waste heat Utilizing waste heat and geothermal heat allows for low fuel consumption in DH. Waste heat has previously been from electricity production and industrial processes. However, new waste heat potentials are likely to be relevant in the future, such as waste heat from Power-to-X facilities. In Heat Plan Denmark 2021, we estimate the possibilities for waste heat, partly using GIS analyses, for industrial waste heat and geothermal heat, and partly via own and others’ estimates for the development of Power-to-X and data centers. We find that in 2045 the total potential for waste heat and geothermal heat is between 12 and 42 TWh/year. This is on top of the amount of industrial waste heat currently utilized in Denmark, less than 1 TWh/year. The high potential can theoret- ically cover the entire current need for DH. In a future system, the DH demand depends partly on the DH coverage and the
energy consumption of the building mass. In the main Heat Plan Denmark 2021 scenario, DH has been expanded, and the building stock has been made more energy-efficient, resulting in the DH demand being at the same level as today. To accelerate the green transition, DH should be significant- ly expanded already before 2030. In 2045, it is estimated that waste heat from industries, data centers, and Power-to-X and geothermal energy will cover half of the DH production, corre- sponding to 19 TWh/year. While the Heat Plan Denmark 2021 focuses on Denmark and Danish conditions, it can be seen as a good indicator for the role of energy efficiency in the building sector and the role of DH in achieving the goal of decarbonization of the energy supply in Europe. Previously we have constructed analyses for Europe in the Heat Roadmap Europe projects 2 .
For further information please contact: Peter Sorknæs, sorknaes@plan.aau.dk Steffen Nielsen,
steffenn@plan.aau.dk Brian Vad Mathiesen, bvm@plan.aau.dk Diana Moreno, diana@plan.aau.dk Jakob Zinck Thellufsen, jakobzt@plan.aau.dk Henrik Lund, lund@plan.aau.dk
2 Access to European maps and reports: www.heatroadmap.eu
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