economy
01. economy The expansion of Metro Vancouver’s job base waned towards the end of 2019, setting the stage for what is likely to be modest growth in 2020.
JOB GROWTH: QUICK OUT OF THE GATE, THEN SLOWING FOR 6 MONTHS STRAIGHT
The late spring and summer months of 2019 were heady times for job growth in Metro Vancouver, with the annualized pace of expansion peaking at 6.4% in July of last year. That was almost three times the rate experienced nationally (2.2%) and two-thirds faster than growth in Toronto (3.9%). At the region’s peak Vancouver was adding jobs at an annual rate of 89,800, which accounted for almost one-quarter of job growth nation-wide. However, as 2019 wore on, Metro Vancouver’s job market became more sluggish, with growth clocking in at a mere 0.6% by the time January 2020 rolled around. Interestingly, the slowdown appears to have been led by the region’s goods- producing sectors—namely construction and manufacturing. This is an intriguing finding
because other data sources have indicated that residential and non-residential construction activity has remained solid. As such, expect a rebound in construction (and other) job growth in 2020. Having said that, the region is unlikely to sustain early- 2019’s annualized job growth of 5-6% through the rest of 2020 given constraints on labour (which has kept a lid on the unemployment rate) and what is again shaping up to be an increasingly uncertain global economic landscape. On the other hand, the region’s labour market remains dynamic, with job vacancies elevated, the construction pipeline remaining full, and new office/tech employment coming soon to a tower near you. Insofar as Metro Vancouver’s resale and pre-sale markets are concerned, this would be a welcome trend.
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