economy
THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: HOW LOW CAN WE GO? MAYBE NOW WE KNOW The regional unemployment rate continues to flirtwith its historical low and shows no signs of deviating from the range of 4-5%.
Unemployment in Canada has never been so good: the country’s 5.7% unemployment rate as of January 2020 remains in close proximity to the all-time floor of 5.6% achieved in six separate months in 2019. Of course, the national unemployment rate is merely a reflection of the complex labour market dynamics seen in regions throughout the country—particularly in urban areas where most people live and most jobs exist.
Given the trend seen Canada-wide, perhaps it’s not so surprising that some of the country’s largest markets continue to experience full employment and near- historically-low unemployment rates, including Toronto (5.5%) and more specifically, Vancouver (4.5%). It would be a stretch to expect sub-4% unemployment on the West Coast over any prolonged period of time, but with an aging population, slow labour force growth, and robust population growth, signs point to unemployment remaining lower for longer.
VANCOUVER’S NEW EQUILIBRIUM UNEMPLOYMENT RATE?
12.0%
10.0%
8.2%
8.0%
7.2%
6.0%
5.5% 5.7% 4.5%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
EDMONTON CALGARY
TORONTO
VANCOUVER
CANADA
SOURCE: LABOUR FORCE SURVEY, STATISTICS CANADA DATA: UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, 3-MONTH MOVING AVERAGE, SEASONALLY-ADJUSTED
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