ISSUE 1 | 2022
02
OUTLOOK SUPPORTS HEALTHY M&A MARKETS Despite the dip in deal activity in Q4 2021, the outlook remains strong. For the sixth quarter running our Heat Charts show high levels of rumoured mid-market deals. And for the fifth quarter in a row there are over 10,000 rumoured deals. That compares
to more recent historic numbers of 8,000 or more. All of this supports the positive outlook for M&A markets. We expect this picture to be supported by the availability of cash in private equity and capital markets coupled with relatively cheap debt. Inflationary pressures may
lead to interest rate rises but interest rates could still continue to be at low historic levels. We believe there will continue to be non-core disposals by larger corporates and private sellers looking to beat possible future capital gains tax rises in certain jurisdictions. The other big factor is PE realising existing investments that have seen good growth over the last 12 months and seeking to capture current high valuations. GLOBAL THEMES INFLUENCING M&A The availability of cash and strong trading by many companies with good cash generation should continue to fuel M&A activity. As we noted earlier, the continued growth of private equity funds should continue to be a major factor in deal- making activity. We also expect strategic buyers to continue to be active in the market as they seek to add to capability, especially technology and digital. The other big theme is the growth of ESG as companies and investors seek to acquire companies with activities that benefit the carbon footprint of the world.
GLOBAL BDO HEAT CHART BY REGION AND SECTOR
TOTAL % *
North America
502 299 303 488 179 352 178 66 39
2406 24%
Greater China
306 715 218 153 169 172 186 66 144
1922 19%
CEE
163 193 72
47 99 33 65 28 26
726 7%
Southern Europe
141 178 99
51 178 48 85 27 17
824 8%
India
93 77 46 43 53 56 27 13 2
410 4%
Latin America
127 39 63 112 48 14 50 22 14
489 5%
Nordic
53 52 25
17 26 19 14 1
4
211 2%
UK/Ireland
145 58 55 69 61
35 47 30 8
508 5%
Australasia
96 59 50 47 59 52 66 42 8
479 5%
DACH
80 94 54 19 49 50 16 5 8
375 4%
JOHN STEPHAN HEAD OF GLOBAL M&A
Other Asia
71
78 23 32 39 26 19 17
4
309 3%
South East Asia
125 78 87
64 46 20 42 13 37
512 5%
Japan
43 27 25
7 17
8 5
9 5
146 1%
john.stephan@bdo.co.uk
Middle East
26
6 15
14 2
3 7
1
3
77 1%
Africa
51
39 30 21 20 19 25
2 4
211 2%
Benelux
37 46 41
13 25 18 9 6 2
197 2%
Israel
31
24 22
16 21
15 11
7
7
154 1%
TOTAL
2,090 2,062 1,228 1,213 1,091 940 852 355 332 10,163 100%
* Percentage figures are rounded up to the nearest one throughout this publication. Note: The Intelligence Heat Charts are based on 'companies for sale' tracked by Mergermarket in the respective regions between 1 January 2021 and 30 June 2021. Opportunities are captured according to the dominant geography and sector of the potential target company. Mergermarket’s Heat Chart of predicted deal flow is based on the intelligence collected in our database relating to companies rumoured to be for sale, or officially up for sale in the respective regions. It is therefore indicative of areas that are likely to be active in the months to come. The intelligence comes from a range of sources, including press reports, company statements and our own team of journalists gathering proprietary intelligence from M&A across the regions. The data does not differentiate between small and large transactions, nor between deals that could happen in the short or long-term.
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