Introduction Long-range forecasting of annual budget priorities creates a framework for evaluating budgetary impacts, building a baseline for measuring effects of decisions, reviewing economic effects on funding scenarios, and provides an understanding of revenue and expenditure projections. The financial forecast does not present a 5-year budget or plan for the City. Forecast models are not absolute predictions of the future, instead are projections of possible outcomes based upon a set of variables and assumptions to evaluate annual decisions. This financial forecast is the first framework that will be evaluated and updated yearly. 1. Economic outlook: 1.1 Population The City of DeSoto population grew from 37,646 in 2000 to 49,047 in 2010 according to the U.S Census, and is currently estimated to be 56,224. The City’s past growth rate can be the best indicator of future growth rate. The following table shows DeSoto’s population, percent change and compound annual growth rate by decade. The city experienced a large population growth from 1980 to 1990 and has grown at consistent rate since 1990.
Compound Annual Growth Rate
Year Population Change % Change 1980 15,538 - - 1990 30,544 15,006 96.58%
6.99% 2.11% 2.68% 1.38%
2000 37,646 7,102 2010 49,047 11,401 2020 56,224 7,177
23.25% 30.28% 14.63%
3.29%
Source: US Census
The city is currently 75 percent built-up, leaving approximately 25 percent of land area of the community to be developed. This means that DeSoto has currently reached 65 percent of its build-out, or ultimate, population of approximately78,000persons. Assuming a conservative growth rate of 1.5 percent, DeSoto is expected to reach its ultimate capacity after 2040. It is important to keep in mind that population projections are subject to change and can be impacted by number of factors such as the local and national economies and the real estate market. 1.2 Housing and Real Estates
Units In Single Family Structure
0 100 200 300 400 500
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000
270 230
161
149 153 125
94 141 142 112 140
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
DeSoto
Dallas Co
107
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