housing
YOU’RE NOT SELLING IF YOU DON’T NEED TO As discussed in previous sections, the labour market both nationally and here in Metro Vancouver has been robust of late. And historically there’s been a strong correlation to work are working, listings remain at or below the long-run average; when people aren’t working and earning an income, supply tends to swell as some homeowners can’t afford their mortgages. This correlation—dare we say, causation?— has held true in 2022, even as sales have slowed substantially from both their elevated between unemployment and housing inventory. When people who want
levels in 2021 and the long-run historical average. Total listings in the Vancouver Region remain about 20% below the past 10-year average while the unemployment rate most recently sits at 4.8%. The only notable exception to this trend came in the 6 months after the onset of the pandemic in 2020, when unemployment spiked due to Covid shutdowns, but listings didn’t follow because of the mortgage deferral program and other government measures. Looking ahead, watch for changes to the regional unemployment rate—if there are any—to continue to influence housing inventory.
AS GOES UNEMPLOYMENT, SO GOES INVENTORY
16%
30,000
mortgage deferral program MAR SEPT
14%
25,000
12%
20,000
10%
8%
15,000
6%
10,000
4%
5,000
2%
0%
0
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
TOTAL MLS INVENTORY MONTH MOVING AVG
DATA: THREE-MONTH MOVING AVERAGE, SEASONALLY-ADJUSTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, 12-MONTH MOVING AVERAGE TOTAL LISTINGS, METRO VANCOUVER
SOURCE: LABOUR FORCE SURVEY, STATISTICS CANADA, REBGV & FVREB
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