2018 SERC RRS Annual Assessment


Preface
3

About This Assessment
4

Executive Summary
5

Key Findings
5

Expected demand projections for the SERC Region are almost flat.
5

The six SERC subregions expect the Anticipated Reserve Margins to be above 20% for the ten-year period.
5

Only slight changes in the Regional resource mix are projected for the ten-year planning horizon, with no significant change reported from 2017 to 2018.
5

SERC is proactively addressing the impacts of increased renewable resources within the SERC footprint and identifying its risks through various forums.
5

Across the SERC Region, member companies continue to build transmission, especially in the first 5 years of the assessment period, to ensure a reliable interconnected power system.
5

Subregion Reserve Margins
7

Capacity Resource Trends
8

Capacity Resource Issues
9

Demand Projections
10

Figure 5: Compound Annual Growth Rate Figure 6: SERC Region Total Internal Demand (MW)
10

Transmission Additions
11

SERC Central
14

Highlights
14

Planning Reserve Margins
15

Demand
15

Demand-Side Management
15

Distributed Energy Resources (DERs)
15

Generation
15

Capacity Transfers
15

Transmission
15

SERC East
17

Highlights
17

Planning Reserve Margins
18

Demand
18

Distributed Energy Resources (DERs)
18

Generation
19

Capacity Transfers
20

Transmission
20

SERC MISO-Central
21

Highlights
21

Planning Reserve Margins
22

Demand
22

Demand-Side Management
22

Distributed Energy Resources (DERs)
22

Generation
22

Capacity Transfers
22

Transmission
22

SERC MISO-South
24

Highlights
24

Planning Reserve Margins
25

Demand
25

Demand-Side Management
25

Distributed Energy Resources (DERs)
25

Generation
25

Capacity Transfers
25

Transmission
25

SERC PJM
27

Highlights
27

Planning Reserve Margins
28

The Anticipated Reserve Margins do not fall below the Reference Margin Level for any year of the assessment period in PJM.
28

Demand
28

Demand-Side Management
28

Demand Response resources can participate in all PJM Markets – Capacity, Energy, and Ancillary Services. PJM requires that PJM member Third Party Suppliers (Curtailment Service Providers - CSPs) bring these resources to PJM Markets and it is the respo...
28

Distributed Energy Resources (DERs)
28

Generation
28

PJM’s Regional Transmission Expansion Process (RTEP) continues to manage an unprecedented capacity shift driven by federal and state public policy and broader fuel economics, including:
28

• New generating plants powered by Marcellus and Utica shale natural gas
28

• New wind and solar units driven by federal and state renewable incentives
29

• Generating plant deactivations
29

• Market impacts introduced by demand resources and energy efficiency programs.
29

Capacity Transfers
29

Transmission
29

SERC Southeast
30

Highlights
30

Planning Reserve Margins
31

The majority of the entities in the SERC SE subregion calculate reserve margins on an annual basis and take into consideration a wide range of weather conditions, forecast error probabilities, production cost, and unit reliability assumptions, includi...
31

Demand
31

Demand-Side Management
31

Distributed Energy Resources (DERs)
31

Generation
31

Capacity Transfers
31

Entities in SERC SE report they are reviewing the impacts of high south to north and north to south transfers across the Region due to market flows. Other bidirectional transfer studies show flowgates that would predominantly show single contingency (...
31

Transmission
32

Load Forecast
34

Resource Categories
35

Reserve Margin
36

Working Group Contributions
38

Variable Energy Resources
38

Scope of Activities
38

Work Plan and Deliverables
38

Dynamics Studies
39

Reliability Risk
39

Resource Adequacy
39

The SERC Resource Adequacy Working Group (RAWG) continues to conduct probabilistic assessments of the regions resource adequacy with the assistance of SERC staff and General Electric (GE). The assessments utilize GE Multi-Area Reliability Simulation (...
39

The model calculates several resource adequacy metrics both on an annual and monthly basis including daily loss-of-load expectation (LOLE), hourly loss-of-load expectation (LOLH), loss-of-load frequency (LOLF), expected unserved energy (EUE), and norm...
39

2018 Work Plan and Deliverables
40

Reserve Margin Sensitivity
40

Renewable Impact Study (RIS) Scenario
40

Natural Gas Single Point of Disruption Scenario
41

Long/Near-Term Transmission Summary
42

SERC Special Analysis: RISTF Report
43

Resource Adequacy
43

Transmission Adequacy
43

The SERC LTWG will assist the RAWG by providing transfer capability limits as input to the RAWG’s resource adequacy 2022 models, and TPL-001-4 analysis on the 2022 summer/winter base case and scenario cases. This analysis will determine other system l...
43

Dynamics
43

Appendix A Glossary
44

Appendix B SERC Membership
45

Appendix C SERC EC Reliability Review Subcommittee Membership
47

Made with FlippingBook HTML5